Cabinet Office

Dear Sir Robert,

Thank you for the UK Statistics Authority’s recommendation on the future of the census. I am writing to confirm that HM Government is commissioning the Office for National Statistics to conduct a mandatory, questionnaire-based, whole-population census of England and Wales in 2031.

High-quality population and migration statistics underpin central and local government service delivery, resource allocation and policy development. In delivering the whole population 2031 Census you may incorporate the innovative use of administrative data where possible and appropriate, but above all the census must meet the needs of the wide range of statistical users and provide accurate data to support informed decision-making across government, business, and civil society.

I would also like to emphasise the importance of close collaboration with the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland as they deliver their own censuses in 2031, and with the Welsh Government to ensure our census reflects their specific national needs. Strengthening coherence in population statistics across the UK is essential for making accurate comparisons and supporting shared policy objectives. By working together, we can develop a harmonised approach that meets the unique needs of each nation while delivering a robust framework for nationwide census data.

The success of the 2021 Census demonstrated the potential of a predominantly online approach and achieved a remarkable response rate. This set a strong foundation for the 2031 Census to go even further, though efforts must be made by ONS to ensure inclusivity and to capture the characteristics of harder-to-reach individuals and communities who may have limited access to the internet.

The Future of Population and Migration Statistics (FPMS) programme has received substantial support from HM Government over the last few years. Spending Review 2025 has now concluded and a settlement has been reached to allow ONS to start preparatory work for Census 2031. This programme, and the ONS more widely, must continue to ensure all taxpayers’ money is spent wisely and efficiently.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank the FPMS programme team for the considerable work undertaken to date and their ongoing commitment to excellence in the field of statistics.

Yours sincerely,
Georgia Gould MP
Parliamentary Secretary for the Cabinet Office

Recommendation on the Future of Population and Migration Statistics

As you will know, the 2018 White Paper ‘Help Shape Our Future’ included the commitment to present a recommendation to Government on the future of population and migration statistics. This would respond to the Government ambition, as set out in 2014, that

“censuses after 2021 will be conducted using other sources of data and providing more timely statistical information”.

In March 2025, the National Statistician made a formal recommendation to the UK Statistics Authority Board which we have accepted and adopt as our own recommendation. Central to that advice, and the Board’s endorsement of it, has been:

the extensive research that the ONS has undertaken and published on the use of administrative data for population and migration statistics;
the ONS’s understanding of legal and privacy issues, adhering at all times to the ONS’s Data Strategy to ensure rigorous data security and protection;
the ONS’s research to understand public attitudes to administrative data and data linking, and its engagement with the National Statistician’s Data Ethics Advisory Committee;
the thorough assessment it has made of the opportunities and risks involved;
the findings of the wide-ranging public consultation process that it undertook in 2023; and
the assessments that it requested from the Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP) and the National Statistician’s Inclusive Data Advisory Committee (NSIDAC).

Sir Ian Diamond since stepped down as National Statistician on 9 May 2025. The Acting National Statistician Emma Rourke endorses the recommendation, and the Board continues to support it enthusiastically. The Board of the UK Statistics Authority is satisfied that the ONS has carried out a thorough public review of the future provision of population and migration statistics in England and Wales.

The public consultation undertaken to inform this recommendation found widespread agreement that more frequent and timely estimates of the population would be valuable to a wide range of users, including local and national policymakers, providers of public services, decision-makers in the private and voluntary sectors, and researchers and citizens seeking to understand our evolving society and economy better.

But respondents to the consultation, along with MARP and NSIDAC, identified several requirements that would need to be met for an administrative-based system to satisfy user needs in a robust and sustainable way.

Meeting these requirements will require additional work by the ONS, but also significant supporting action from Government, notably to improve and guarantee the flow of the necessary administrative data. The Authority Board, users and the public would need to be assured that these requirements are met before we could be confident of relying on a primarily administrative-based approach.

This is reflected in the core elements of the recommendation attached. These are:

that the UK Government commission and resource the ONS to conduct a mandatory questionnaire-based census of the whole population for England and Wales in 2031. This should support coherent UK outputs and maximise the benefits from the ONS’s work with administrative data to date, enabling further delivery of such benefits in the future.
that the UK Government commission and resource the ONS to develop statistical outputs using administrative data which provide more frequent estimates and are inclusive in representing society. This should include an administrative-based census of the population.
that the UK and Welsh Governments provide a commitment to the regular, reliable and ongoing flow of the critical administrative datasets required, ensuring that data owners deliver on that commitment, and invest in the required improvements to those sources and address the known points of friction that prevent data transfer.

As you will know, the power to call a traditional census for England and Wales rests with Ministers.

I commend this recommendation to you and look forward to the Government’s response in due course.

Yours sincerely,

Sir Robert Chote
Chair

Georgia Gould MP to Sir Robert Chote – Recommendation on the Future of Population and Migration Statistics

Related links

Letter from Sir Robert Chote to Georgia Gould MP – Recommendation on the Future of Population and Migration Statistics

Recommendation on the Future of Population and Migration Statistics

Related links