1. 13:00 – 13:05 (5 Mins) – Introduction – Sir Bernard Silverman
2. 13:05 – 13:25 (20 Mins) – Census Update – Jon Wroth-Smith
3. 13:30 – 14:25 (55 Mins) – EAP166 – Methodology to estimate international migration in the absence of the International Passenger Survey – Nicky Rogers
4. Break
5. 14:45 – 15:00 (15 Mins) – EAP167 – Approach to Assuring Software Code and Processes for Retention and Archiving of Software and Methodologies – Jon Wroth-Smith
6. 15:05 – 15:15 (10 Mins) – Actions Update – Rob Turner
7. 15:15 – 15:30 (15 Mins) – Any other business – Sir Bernard Silverman

Panel Members

• Sir Bernard Silverman (Chair)
• Prof Ana Basiri
• Dr Oliver Duke-Williams
• Dr Nik Lomax
• Prof David Martin
• Prof Natalie Shlomo

Office for National Statistics

• Rachel Skentelbery (ONS Lead)
• Owen Abbott (ONS Deputy Lead)
• Cal Ghee (ONS Attendee)
• Gareth Powell (ONS Attendee)
• Jon Wroth-Smith (ONS Attendee & Presenter)
• Nicky Rogers (Presenter)
• Rob Turner (Secretariat)

1 –Introduction

1. The chair welcomed attendees to the session.

2 – Census update

1. ONS provided an update on Census operations.

3 – EAP166 – Methodology to estimate international migration in the absence of the International Passenger Survey

1. ONS presented the work done and highlighted the questions raised in the paper. They noted and thanked the panel for comments on the paper ahead of the meeting.
2. The panel asked about the approach, whether other options (eg RegARIMA) had been explored, and whether work by Pfefferman and others had been considered for guidance. ONS said that RegARIMA had been thought about and would be considered for use in the model. They confirmed that this was in line with recent work by academics.
3. The panel asked about simulations, but ONS said that they would be difficult given the uniqueness of the situation and the relative lack of alternative data. The panel were sympathetic to the need for good data, though also suggested looking at using the Longitudinal Study and some visa information, which may help. The panel highlighted that people living and working in different countries could be an issue in this approach, as well as UK nationals who migrate. ONS confirmed this and are thinking about how they might be dealt with.
4. The panel also asked whether the detailed mathematics had been peer reviewed, and ONS confirmed that the University of Southampton had checked the workings and process.
5. The panel commended the work to date and were pleased by ONS progress in this area.

4 – EAP167 – Approach to Assuring Software Code and Processes for Retention and Archiving of Software and Methodologies

1. ONS set out the background to the paper, which arose as a response to action A84.
2. The panel made some suggestions and had some more detailed information which could be helpful and offered to share with ONS.
3. The panel asked about whether a ‘clean’/pre-disclosure control process dataset would be kept – ONS assured that it would be, though due to disclosure its use would be restricted, even for internal analysis
4. Given the more detailed feedback available from the panel, ONS agreed to update the paper and then share via correspondence.

5 – Actions Update

1. ONS provided an update on actions – none were closed.

6 – Any other business

1. The panel considered the content and audience of an annual report and will work with the Secretariat on producing something suitable.