Advisory Panel on National Accounts minutes: 17 September 2026

Attendees

Members

Nick Vaughan — Chair
Joao Sousa — Institute for Fiscal Studies
Scottish Government — Gayle Mackie
Welsh Government — Cian Siôn
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency — Chris Ganley
His Majesty’s Treasury — Tom Orford / Luke Came

Secretariat

Peter Gittins — ONS

Presenters and colleagues

Liz McKeown — ONS
Craig McLaren — ONS
Chloe Gibbs — ONS
Kate Davies — ONS
Grant Fitzner — ONS
David Matthewson — ONS
Steve Drew — ONS
Craig Taylor — ONS
Richard Heys — ONS
Andrew Walton — ONS
Eric Crane — ONS
Eve Smith — ONS
Rob Dunn — ONS
Alison McCrea — ONS
Curtis Sanders — ONS
Tim Lang — ONS
Joey Tobitt — ONS
Rachel Skentelbery — ONS
Naomi Thomas — ONS
Saurabh Kumar — ONS
Rhys Humphries — ONS
Eleanor Law — ONS
Adreina Naddeo — ONS
Rosalind Archer — ONS
Ruby Davison — ONS

Minutes

Welcome and opening remarks

The Chair welcomed participants to the second Advisory Panel on National Accounts (APoNA) meeting.

Discussion and key themes

The Secretariat reminded members of confidentiality arrangements for APoNA material and meeting attendance.

1. Minutes, actions, and recommendations from the previous meeting

This item reviewed the minutes, actions and recommendations from the first APoNA meeting.

Update on actions and recommendations from first meeting

The Secretariat confirmed that the Terms of Reference had been updated following Meeting 1, with a further review scheduled for Meeting 3.
The actions and recommendations to ensure APoNA meetings conformed to the revised terms of reference were all completed.
Further recruitment for APoNA non-institutional representatives took place in June/July, but no appointments were made. The action to recruit additional members remains open.
Readout from the UN Expert Group on National Accounts was included for information at agenda item 2.
Double Deflation and Financial Services Survey development were confirmed as added to the APoNA topic backlog for future discussion.
The action to bring back revisions analysis around use of Labour Force Survey (LFS) data in National Accounts was retained. This will include an update on the APoNA recommendations. Inclusion of the topic is expected for meeting 3 or 4.
Data as an Asset was included in the agenda under item 3a.
The recommendation to publish a simplified external governance summary for ONS will be taken forward through the next update on SNA2025 (System of National Accounts 2025 edition) implementation on the ONS website.
ONS will communicate the quality trade-offs of earlier Blue Book publication in the Blue Book 2027 launch article, alongside release of a clear policy document on the timing of Blue Books.
The recommendations on approach to integration of Annual Survey of Goods and Services (ASGS) data in the national accounts 2026 data release are complete.
- Methods and early GDP impacts articles have been published and sought input from APoNA members.
- Development of the Survey continues with the third-party supplier for data collection, including new 2026 questionnaire content and additional quality assurance.
- Following integration of the national level GDP data, regional impacts are now being considered.
The Digital Economy Survey recommendations update noted that APoNA had supported restarting the survey as the appropriate short- to medium-term mechanism for collecting information needed to meet digitalisation requirements under SNA2025 and BPM7 (Balance of Payments Manual 7^th edition). Cognitive testing has now been completed with ONS methodology colleagues, confirming that businesses can struggle with more technical elements of the survey. ONS is therefore working through recommendations to add clearer definitions, diagrams and examples, and offered to share the questionnaire with interested APoNA members. A pilot data collection using the revised questions is expected to launch with 100 companies by the end of the month, ahead of a potential full data collection in the autumn. ONS discussed cost-benefit analysis with internal specialists, but this was not pursued in detail given the clear overriding requirement to proceed for SNA 2025/BPM7 purposes. Instead, ONS has continued to engage stakeholders and adapt the survey to wider needs, including adding AI (Artificial Intelligence) questions. The survey is partially funded by the Department for Business and Trade, and collection is being outsourced to NISRA in the short term. Longer-term integration is being considered as part of wider business survey rationalisation and future international trade services survey development. Exploitation of other administrative data sources continues as a long-term goal.
For SNA2025/BPM7 implementation, current plans separate early SBR (Statistical Business Register) transition from industry/product classification changes, as recommended by APoNA. IMSS (International Macroeconomic Statistical Standards) is expected to formalise as a programme in November 2026 with an external publication and progress dashboard planned. Cross-GSS coordination continues, and implementation of IMSS has been retained as a regular APoNA standing item.

2. For Information Items

This item provided updates for APoNA members, including feedback from the UN Group of Experts on National Accounts and other relevant international meetings.

Discussion and key themes

ONS noted the forthcoming international meetings, including OECD national accounts, financial statistics and trade statistics meetings, and agreed to provide relevant readouts for future APoNA meetings.

3. Intangible Assets under New SNA

3a. Data as an Asset

This sub-item considered the treatment of data as an asset under the new SNA2025.

Discussion and key themes

The item set out the SNA2025 definition of data as digitally recorded information content that provides economic benefit when used in production.
ONS described progress on UK methods, including refined occupation lists, involvement rates, non-labour cost estimates, safeguards against double counting, experimental deflators and NLP (Natural Language Processing) approaches.
System development has rebuilt the estimation process, mapped the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC2020) consistently across the time series, and produced preliminary internal estimates from 1997 to 2023.
Key remaining issues include purchased data, double counting, depreciation, asset lives, and evidence on central government, local government and NPISH expenditure on long-term data assets.
The proposed implementation path includes first preliminary estimates published from December 2026, further thematic account development from 2027 to 2029, and formal inclusion in GFCF and GDP in 2030.

Panel recommendations

The Panel supported continued development of estimates for data as an asset and welcomed the upcoming publication of initial UK estimates, with appropriate caveats, from December 2026.
ONS should continue to investigate non-market and general government data, including health and public-sector statistical activity, given the potential scale and sectoral importance of those data assets.
ONS should maintain international benchmarking and bilateral engagement so that UK estimates are sense-checked against comparable economies and methodological outliers can be explained.
ONS should continue research on depreciation, asset lives and possible appreciation of data, recognising that a single default service life may not be appropriate across all types of data.
ONS should investigate purchased data, data vendors, databases and potential double counting between data, databases, software and AI-related assets.
ONS should continue exploring NLP-based approaches and seek user views on whether these provide a more robust alternative to reliance on ASHE-based (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings) estimates.

3b. Treatment of Cloud Computing in National Accounts

This sub-item considered the treatment of cloud computing in National Accounts.

Discussion and key themes

The presentation explained that SNA2025 clarifies, rather than changes, the boundary between software assets and cloud-based services.
The appropriate National Accounts treatment depends on economic ownership: long-term software rights may be treated as Gross Fixed Capital Formation, while supplier-controlled software-as-a-service and pay-per-use access are generally intermediate consumption.
Business accounting practice commonly records cloud expenditure as an operating cost, which is generally appropriate for standard cloud services, but may obscure some long-term licence-like arrangements.
A key measurement uncertainty is that source data may not contain enough contractual detail to distinguish investment from service use.

Panel recommendations

The Panel agreed that cloud-based software arrangements present a significant measurement challenge for identifying software investment in the National Accounts.
The Panel supported further work to clarify the boundary between long-term software rights, rolling subscriptions, supplier-controlled software-as-a-service and pay-per-use cloud services.
ONS should strengthen guidance to respondents where needed, as existing survey guidance may not be sufficient to ensure cloud-computing expenditure is reported consistently with SNA2025.
ONS should investigate the scale and materiality of cloud computing expenditure, including public-sector cloud expenditure, before determining whether further methodological or collection changes are required.

Actions

ONS to review whether respondent guidance should better distinguish software-as-a-service, short-term subscriptions and long-term software licences.
ONS to work with IMSS digitalisation workstreams and government finance colleagues to assess treatment of cloud-computing expenditure.
ONS to consider respondent testing or case studies, including through large-case engagement, to understand whether source data can distinguish cloud-service and software-investment arrangements.

3c. Treatment of AI in the Context of a Thematic Account

This sub-item considered progress and plans for the treatment of AI (Artificial Intelligence) in the context of a thematic account.

Discussion and key themes

The item described AI as a rapidly emerging general-purpose technology whose economic impact is not currently visible in standard National Accounts classifications.
ONS is developing a UK AI Thematic Account to provide visibility of AI-related production, investment and use, alongside international work by organisations including the OECD, IMF, Statistics Canada and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Early work has proposed a scope for the UK AI sector, identified relevant product categories in the Supply and Use Tables, and developed an initial AI producer business population.
Key measurement challenges include disaggregating broad product categories into AI and non-AI activity, managing blurred boundaries with other technologies, maintaining the AI business population, and distinguishing AI from non-AI revenue in diversified companies.
The proposed approach is to define the measurement scope, disaggregate relevant Supply and Use Table elements, explore short-term indicators, and assess the feasibility and value of further account development by March 2027.

Panel recommendations

The Panel supported development of an AI Thematic Account and agreed that the work is important for understanding a rapidly emerging general-purpose technology.
ONS should define the scope carefully, ensuring it is broad enough to capture economically meaningful AI activity but not so broad that it becomes indistinguishable from the wider economy.
ONS should consider the main use cases for the account, including whether it is intended to measure AI-supported activity, newly enabled AI activity, production, adoption, imports, infrastructure or broader economic contribution.
ONS should continue international engagement, particularly with the US BEA, Statistics Canada, OECD and IMF, and learn from emerging approaches while recognising that the UK may have a different profile as a likely importer of AI services.
ONS should prioritise conceptual challenges around embedded AI, own-account AI development, data centres, AI-related imports, product categories and classification limitations.
ONS should consider regional and devolved-administration interests where feasible, while recognising the classification and data limitations involved.

Actions

ONS to continue developing the AI Thematic Account, beginning with a practical first iteration focused on AI software and supporting infrastructure.
ONS to engage through the product classification revision process and relevant international forums on whether product categories are sufficiently detailed for AI-related measurement.
ONS to return to APoNA with further methodological development, including challenges around embedded AI, imports, own-account development and deflation.

4. GDP Seasonal Adjustment

This item considered GDP seasonal adjustment.

Discussion and key themes

The item emphasised that seasonal adjustment is a crucial step in producing key economic outputs.
ONS set out its approach to assessing and monitoring residual seasonality, including use of both full-span and recent-period tests.
The paper noted that seasonally adjusted estimates combine trend-cycle and irregular components, and that some movements reflect real-world events rather than seasonal effects.
Examples discussed included energy price changes being passed through to consumer bills, uncertainty around the Budget, and tightening financial conditions, all of which may affect data without necessarily indicating residual seasonality.
The discussion focused on external assurance, transparency, reporting to users, and the flexibility of the current framework to respond to changing economic behaviour and seasonal patterns.

Panel recommendations

The Panel supported ONS’s approach of monitoring both full-span and recent-period residual seasonality tests while recognising that emerging seasonal patterns may take time to detect.
The Panel welcomed the additional transparency around published non-seasonally adjusted data and supported continued communication in GDP releases on residual seasonality monitoring.
ONS should continue engaging with expert users, including Treasury, Bank of England, OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility), OSR (Office for Statistical Regulation) and academic specialists, to strengthen assurance and understanding of seasonal adjustment issues.
The Panel supported development of stronger methodological assurance arrangements, including the proposed time-series and seasonal-adjustment subgroup within ONS.

5. GDP Annual Production Process

5a. Plans for SU Balancing

This sub-item considered plans for supply-use balancing.

Discussion and key themes

The presentation placed annual GDP development in the context of major forthcoming changes, including SNA2025, BPM7, new product and industry classifications, other product classifications, survey transformation and the internal Production Process Review.
ONS identified five possible directions for annual GDP development: improving existing data sources, reviewing large imbalances, exploiting new data sources, improving systems and processes, and meeting user needs for emerging areas of greater granularity.
The current price balancing challenge was illustrated with income, expenditure and production approaches all having different measurement challenges.
There was need for better separation of coverage and conceptual issues from pure balancing, and for feeding detailed imbalance investigations into survey transformation.
ONS also outlined the potential benefits of expanded Supply and Use Table dimensions, including easier product balancing, more accurate deflation and improved supply chain information.
Further development options included producing an internal balancing guide, clearer handling of balancing, earlier price-volume confrontation, examination of business-to-business payments data, and agreement on future product and industry dimensions.

Panel recommendations

The Panel indicated that improving and better exploiting existing data sources should be the priority direction for annual GDP development. This would include work to strengthen the Annual Business Survey (ABS) and Annual Purchases Survey (APS) data.
The Panel supported exploration of new administrative and commercial data sources, including business-to-business payments, credit-card data and HMRC data, but recognised that these are likely to be more immediately useful for targeted or short-term indicators than for complete Supply and Use balancing.
ONS should consider regional and devolved administration needs when developing new data sources or better exploiting existing administrative data. including the ability to produce robust extracts for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
ONS should continue work on systems and processes, including the balancing guide, and share relevant guidance with devolved administrations where possible to support coherence across supply-use and input-output tables.

Actions

ONS to prioritise work on improving existing survey sources and feeding source-quality findings into survey transformation.
ONS to seek opportunities to better exploit PAYE/VAT administrative data.
ONS to continue exploratory work on business-to-business payments, credit-card data and administrative data, including potential regional use cases.

5b. Developing the National Accounts Production Process

This sub-item considered development of the National Accounts production process.

Discussion and key themes

The review found that the current production process continues to support National Accounts, but that SNA2025, BPM7 and wider transformation increase the need for resilience, sustainability and flexibility.
Key pressures identified were flexibility of change, late visibility of quality issues, the burden of historic data, limited space for feedback loops, the potential of the Commodity Flow Model, and the importance of ownership and knowledge retention.
The review did not propose a methodological redesign or conclude that the current process is failing; instead, it identified where the existing process should be strengthened.
The proposed direction is a more flexible, evidence-led and sustainable production model that improves quality, strengthens coherence and enables controlled but timely change.
The panel was asked to comment on whether the findings describe the most important risks and opportunities, and where APoNA’s assurance role could add most value.

Panel recommendations

The Panel agreed that the review was considering the right broad objectives, particularly flexibility in the change process, data quality, knowledge retention and sustainable systems.
ONS should bring future production-process questions back to APoNA where there are clear user-facing trade-offs, such as speed of implementation versus maintaining a long consistent historical time series.
The Panel emphasised the value of long historical time series and encouraged ONS to consider carefully any proposals that would reduce historical consistency.
ONS should consider sharing lessons, process documentation and relevant guidance with devolved administrations and other supply-use producers where this supports coherence.

Actions

ONS to return to APoNA with specific production-process trade-offs where user input would support decision-making.

6. Productivity Component Approach

This item considered the productivity component approach, following publication of an article earlier in the day.

Discussion and key themes

The item contrasted the current direct approach, which anchors whole-economy hours to Labour Force Survey actual hours, with a component approach that constructs total actual hours from the best available sources.
Limitations of the direct approach include coverage issues; industry alignment differences between National Accounts and self-reported LFS industry; and known upward bias in LFS actual hours linked to collection, recall and roll-forward imputation.
The component approach aims to improve National Accounts alignment by combining adjusted productivity jobs with mean actual hours per job, rather than relying on a single survey total.
ONS cited OECD evidence that direct methods can report higher hours and affect international productivity comparisons, with OECD recommendations supporting use of a component approach.
The methodology develops productivity jobs, estimates mean actual hours from paid usual hours and higher/lower hours adjustments, and combines both elements to produce total productivity hours.
Key adjustments include annual leave, bank holidays, sickness, furlough, unpaid overtime and variable hours, with annual leave identified as a major driver of divergence from the direct approach over time.
The proposed transition strategy included continued development, user engagement, incorporation, publication and methods iteration, with publication milestones from late 2026 into early 2027.

Panel recommendations

The Panel welcomed the component approach as a stronger conceptual basis for productivity measurement and recognised its improved coherence with National Accounts.
ONS should continue consultation and quality assurance before the planned publication, ensuring users understand the change in the productivity narrative, particularly the revised post-financial-crisis output-per-hour growth picture.
ONS should continue to investigate regional implications, and the transition path for regional and industry productivity estimates.
ONS should consider whether additional administrative sources, can improve employee and self-employment measures over time.
ONS should continue engaging with devolved administrations and productivity users on data sources, methodology and implementation timing.

Actions

ONS to continue consultation and additional quality assurance ahead of the planned November publication.
ONS to publish national estimates first, then continue work on industry, regional and sub-regional implementation.

7. Treatment of Negative FISIM in National Accounts

This item considered the treatment of negative FISIM (Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured) in National Accounts.

Discussion and key themes

The presentation set out concerns that the current FISIM methodology, which is correctly based on ESA2010 (European System of Accounts 2010 edition), is generating negative estimates in specific periods of rapid interest rate change.
Evidence showed negative owner-occupied dwelling FISIM in recent years and strong FISIM contributions to GDP following consumer deposit FISIM trends.
SNA 2025 guidance encourages countries to review the reference rate where negative estimates occur, but the presentation noted limitations in how existing guidance applies to pandemic-driven interest rate conditions and fixed-rate mortgage dynamics.
Three options were discussed: a revised reference rate using dwelling loan and consumer deposit interest rates for affected periods; margin adjustments based on a prior dwelling-loan margin; or continuing business as usual and accepting negative estimates.
The panel was asked to consider which interpretation is most compelling, what practical implications may be missing, feasibility, and an appropriate implementation timeline.

Panel recommendations

The Panel recognised negative FISIM as an important methodological issue, particularly because of the implications for supply-use tables and related analytical products.
The Panel’s preference was for further work on a revised reference-rate approach rather than a fixed-margin approach, which was viewed as less conceptually convincing.
The Panel did not support rapid implementation, which could create undue methodological or reputational risk; a slower approach to allow fuller quality assurance was recommended.
ONS should consider whether once the issue has been taken through internal methods governance, it should come back to APoNA and/or proceed to NSCASE. The involvement of NSCASE is particularly necessary if the preferred approach stretches or departs from SNA guidance.
ONS should continue engagement with the Bank of England and international contacts to assess alternative approaches and feasibility.

Actions

ONS to continue internal methodological work on negative FISIM. Focus should be on the revised reference-rate option and be implemented into the National Accounts when this method is endorsed.
ONS to continue engagement with the Bank of England and international partners before deciding on a preferred method. Once a preferred method is decided, ONS to determine whether further APoNA and NSCASE consideration is required.

8. Impact of Crypto Currency on GDP

This item considered the impact of crypto currency on GDP.

Discussion and key themes

The item explained that crypto assets affect several accounts, not GDP alone, with treatment depending on economic rights under SNA2025 and BPM7.
Unbacked crypto assets are treated as non-produced non-financial assets, issued crypto assets as financial assets and liabilities, NFTs according to the represented rights, and crypto mining and services as production activity.
The direct GDP relevance of many crypto assets is expected to be limited, but there may be indirect effects through creative or access services, and possible crypto mining or related activities.
ONS proposed a discovery-focused approach that maps requirements, tests data sources, learns from international practice, assesses feasibility and sets proportionate options before any implementation commitment.
Key feasibility questions include coverage, valuation, residence, sector allocation, duplication and asymmetry.
The panel was asked where limited discovery effort should focus, including priority use cases, priority data sources, the appropriate scope of work, and relevant international learning.

Panel recommendations

The Panel supported a discovery-only approach to crypto assets at this stage, with no immediate commitment to implementation.
ONS should prioritise understanding definitions, sector allocation, residence, valuation and materiality before developing formal estimates.
ONS should continue monitoring international guidance, particularly from the IMF and BPM7-related work, and should engage with the Bank of England, HMRC and other relevant data holders where appropriate.
ONS should assess whether crypto assets are material for GDP, balance sheets, balance of payments or specific sectors, and focus future work proportionately.

Actions

ONS to continue discovery work on crypto assets, including data-source mapping and assessment of residence, sector allocation and valuation challenges.
ONS to engage with IMF guidance, international compilation work, HMRC, regulators and Bank of England contacts as appropriate.
ONS to return to APoNA only if discovery indicates material implications or a need for methodological decisions.

9. Standing Item: SNA25+ Progress

This standing item considered progress with implementation of the International Macro-Economic Statistical Standards (IMSS).

Discussion and key themes

The standing item reminded members that IMSS implementation will adopt updated international frameworks (SNA2025 and BPM7) and associated classifications ensuring UK economic statistics remain relevant, coherent, trusted and internationally comparable. 
The current strategic intent is to implement core SNA2025 changes affecting GDP and GNI, and core BPM7 changes affecting the current account, within published outputs by 2030, with key Industry and Product classifications (SIC and CPA) by 2031, and other scope items from 2032 onwards.
Progress was reported on implementation of new Industry and product classifications, and SNA2025/BPM7 scope and on programme controls, including stronger governance, milestones and dependency management. 
Major challenges include systems impacts, sequencing dependencies across multiple changes (new statistical business register, surveys, and new methods), technical and specialist knowledge, and remaining uncertainty around dates.

Panel recommendations

The Panel supported the overall direction of IMSS implementation and welcomed progress on new Industry and product classifications. 
ONS should ensure that survey and system dependencies are coordinated across SNA2025/BPM7, digitalisation, new industry/product classifications and business-survey transformation. 
ONS to continue developing the IMSS business case and external communication setting out implementation intent.

9a. Materiality Framework for SNA25/BPM7

This sub-item considered the proposed use of a materiality framework to support proportionate implementation of SNA2025 and BPM7 recommendations in the UK.

Discussion and key themes

The materiality framework would be used alongside prioritisation, so measurement and assurance effort align with economic importance and wider statistical risk.
The framework provisionally classifies 180 core recommendations into significant, material, immaterial and enabling categories, with different implementation routes and safeguards for each.
The Panel was asked to advise on the principle of applying materiality, whether the four categories are clear and complete, whether proposed thresholds are reasonable, and what evidence, monitoring and approval should support immaterial judgements.

Panel recommendations

The Panel supported the use of a materiality framework alongside prioritisation, recognising that ONS cannot apply equal measurement effort to every recommendation. 
The Panel considered the four categories – significant, material, immaterial and enabling – to be a reasonable basis for prioritisation, while noting the need for safeguards and clear evidence to support immaterial judgements.
ONS should make the framework transparent enough to explain which recommendations are being implemented, deferred, treated as immaterial or addressed through enabling changes. 
ONS should share relevant materiality information with devolved administrations and consider how resource intensity, data dependencies and survey impacts are reflected alongside economic materiality.

Actions

ONS to consider publishing or sharing a transparent implementation view showing which recommendations are in scope, immaterial, deferred or enabling. 
ONS to share relevant materiality and implementation information with devolved administrations and international partners where appropriate.

10. Close and any other business

This item formally closed the meeting.

Actions

ONS Secretariat to confirm the date and location for the next APoNA meeting.