Methodological Assurance Review Panel Migration Statistics sub-group minutes: 28 July 2026

Published:

Attendees

Panel:

  • Jakub Bijak – University of Oxford   
  • Nik Lomax – University of Leeds (Chair)  
  • Georgina Sturge – Migration Observatory  
  • Arkadiusz Wisniowski – University of Manchester  

ONS representatives:

  • Joseph Beddoe 
  • Liam Campkin
  • Laura Cheatham
  • Victoria Chenery 
  • Brendan Georgeson
  • Claire Hill (Secretariat)
  • Ben Williams-Shellard

Apologies:

  • Marie McAuliffe- Independent Consultant (Panel Member) 

Minutes

1. Welcome address and status of prior actions

The Chair opened the meeting by welcoming the panel, seeking comments on the previous meetings key messages and then reviewing the outstanding actions.

Actions agreed for closure by the Chair:

  • MMSG008: ONS to confirm the distributions used in the coverage adjustment for British Nationals estimates. Coverage adjustment and uncertainty analysis are ongoing, with completion expected by November 2025.
  • MMSG009: ONS to investigate potential gaps in emigration estimates for British Nationals within RAPID. This work is progressing in line with MMSG008.

 It was confirmed that the relevant updates for the actions  had been completed and included in the publication material following the release of Implementing new methods for estimating international migration of EU+ nationals, progress update: November 2025 on 18 November. Actions closed.

2. Cumulative Length of Stay and Mobility Data Asset

ONS presented work on moving towards a travel-based approach using a mobility data asset. The approach would bring together long-term international migration, temporary mobility, and travel and tourism to improve coherence across statistical outputs.

The panel supported the continued development of the cumulative length of stay approach and mobility data asset, subject to further testing, validation and clear communication with users.

3. Estimates for People with Indefinite Leave

ONS presented work on developing a more joined-up approach to using travel-related data. The proposed approach would bring together evidence across migration, mobility, and travel and tourism to improve consistency across statistical outputs.

The panel gave initial support for applying the EU settled status cumulative length of stay method to people with indefinite leave as a short-term approach, subject to further validation and sensitivity testing. 

4. Visa Overstayers Proof of Concept

ONS provided an overview of a proof of concept for estimating visa overstayers as an aggregate adjustment to emigration estimates.

The panel welcomed the proof of concept as a useful aggregate estimation approach, while noting that further development and validation would be needed before it could contribute to official long-term international migration estimates.

The meeting concluded with agreement that the proposed methodological work is moving in the right direction, while recognising that further validation, user communication, and assurance are needed before changes can be implemented.