Methodological Assurance Review Panel Population Statistics Review Panel sub-group annual report: 2025 to 2026

Published:

Following the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) announcement that the Dynamic Population Model would not be adopted as official statistics, the subgroup’s scope was reviewed and it was renamed the Population Statistics Review Panel, supported by updated Terms of Reference (published 13th August 2026). 

The panel met three times since the last annual report (October 2025, March 2026, and June 2026), considering the future direction of population estimation research, lessons learned from the Dynamic Population Model (DPM), and alternative methodological approaches. Discussions covered: 

  • international migration coherence between ABPEs and LTIM estimates
  • sensitivity analysis of the DPM
  • quality assurance of the DPM
  • technical documentation DPM
  • Alternative methods for population estimates: 
    • Quadratic Optimisation
    • Reconciliation of Local and National Demographic Accounts (RoLaNDA)
    • EldEst older age population methods
    • Running DPM without system models

The panel emphasised the importance of transparency, robust evaluation criteria, UK-wide coherence, clear documentation and continued engagement as ONS refines its approach to population estimation. The meeting held on 30 June 2026 marked a reset point for the programme, with previous actions closed and new actions agreed to support continued methodological development and comparison across approaches.

Membership remained unchanged, with Professor Ana Basiri as Chair and Dr Fred Piel, Professor Jon Forster, Professor George Ploubidis and Professor Arkadiusz Wiśniowski as members.

Meetings are not being arranged at fixed regular intervals; instead, the team is reviewing the population work programme, including key milestones, deliverables and planned engagement points. Once this lookahead is agreed, PSRP meetings will be called with prior notice where there is a clear need for panel input. Panel members have also been invited to provide input via correspondence where appropriate. 

Minutes for these meetings are available on the Authority website.