Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Labour Market Statistics minutes: July 2026

Published:

Attendees

Members

  • Jonathan Portes (Chair)
  • Alexandra Fitzpatrick (Welsh Government, delegate for Stephanie Howarth)
  • Brian Green (Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, delegate for Philip Wales)
  • Chaitra Nagaraja (University of Exeter)
  • David Bell (University of Stirling)
  • Katie Baxter (HM Treasury, delegate for Daniel Gallagher)
  • Scott Bowman (Office for Budget Responsibility, delegate for Rosanna Colthorpe)
  • Tom Younger (Department for Work and Pensions)
  • Tomas Key (Bank of England, delegate for Huw Pill)

ONS presenters

  • Chris Robinson
  • Dan Ayoubkhani
  • David Freeman
  • Heather Bovill
  • Tom Evans

ONS colleagues

  • Alex Lambert
  • Becky Hendy
  • James Harris
  • Katy Nicholls
  • Liz McKeown
  • Ria Sanderson
  • Sarah Ash
  • Sian Evans
  • Sumit Dey-Chowdhury 

ONS secretariat

  • Emma Shewring 

Minutes

1. Introduction

  1. The Chair welcomed attendees to the meeting. The Panel noted the agenda, which focused on an update on the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) readiness assessment and an update on administrative data research. 

2. LFS update

  1. ONS provided an update on a recent operational issue affecting the LFS and confirmed that related analysis would be published alongside the July LFS quality article.
  2. Members discussed the wider pressures associated with the dual running of the LFS and TLFS.
  3. A formal lessons learned review within ONS was noted.

3. TLFS readiness assessment

  1. ONS presented the July 2026 readiness assessment and highlighted recent progress across the programme.
  2. Transition State 11 changes are showing early signs of progress.
  3. Further work is required in areas including coding of industry and occupation classifications, and the development of datasets and outputs.
  4. Based on the current evidence, the TLFS is not yet ready for transition or for the publication of research outputs.
  5. A further review is planned in January 2027.

4. Outlook for 2027

  1. ONS presented a forward look to 2027, recognising financial and operational pressures from continued dual running of the LFS and TLFS and the growing importance of securing transition during 2027.
  2.  Panel members discussed potential trade-offs that could support a future transition to the TLFS. 
  3. Members emphasised the need for a credible post-transition improvement plan.

5. Potential transition trade-offs

  1. The Panel discussed the possibility that some methods may require further optimisation after transition.
  2. Members discussed prioritising headline labour market estimates and managing future revisions through a structured and transparent approach. 
  3. Members emphasised the need for clear explanation of trade-offs, timelines and interdependencies. 

6. Data quality

  1. ONS recapped the Transition State 11 changes, including increased incentives and data rotation.
  2. Early evidence indicates higher response rates and reduced partial returns.
  3. Members supported the recommended approach of allowing the survey changes to settle before making further major interventions.
  4. The Panel highlighted the importance of ongoing monitoring and early escalation if quality diverges from expectations.

7. Administrative data research update

  1. ONS presented early research on linking survey data with HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Pay As You Earn (PAYE).
  2. ONS noted that experimental recalibration using PAYE data may help to improve understanding of potential non-response bias and reduce discontinuities between LFS and TLFS estimates.
  3. ONS emphasised that the work remains preliminary and requires further refinement.
  4. The Panel recognised the potential value of administrative data as a monitoring and diagnostic tool.

Please note: AI has been involved in the production of this content. The content has been reviewed by ONS prior to publication.