Public Health Scotland

Dear Sir David,

Misleading statistics used by the Scottish Government for Test and Protect

I write to you regarding the above matter.

Following media reports this weekend, I am deeply concerned to learn that the Scottish Government has been publishing Test and Protect figures that significantly overestimate its performance in meeting the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) target, which states that “at least 80% of new cases” should “have their close contacts traced and in quarantine within 72 hours of case confirmation.”

The figures that have been published to date are misleading as they do not include “failed” cases. When the 72-hour success rate calculation is done with the failed cases added in, the 80% WHO target has actually been missed by Test and Protect over the period since records began (week ending Aug 9, 2020, to week ending September 12, 2021).

The correct use of statistics is vital, particularly when we are encouraging everyone to take regular tests to stop the spread of the virus. It is imperative that the public have faith in the accuracy and truthfulness of the data that is published by the Scottish Government. As such, I would be grateful if you could investigate this matter and take appropriate action as you see fit.

Yours sincerely,

Jackie Baillie MSP

Ed Humpherson to Scott Heald: Test and Protect statistics

Dear Ms Baillie,

Thank you for your letter of 27 September regarding your concerns over the use of Test and Protect statistics by Scottish Government.

Scottish Government should be clearer about the limitations in comparing figures for Scotland (published by Public Health Scotland) with the World Health Organization target for contact tracing.

Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation, has today written to Public Health Scotland, copied to the Chief Statistician in Scottish Government, welcoming improvements to the presentation of these statistics. I enclose a copy of his letter.

Yours sincerely,
Sir David Norgrove

Jackie Baillie MSP to Sir David Norgrove: Test and Protect Statistics