Panel Members

• Sir Bernard Silverman (Chair)
• Dr Oliver Duke-Williams
• Dr Nik Lomax
• Prof David Martin
• Prof Natalie Shlomo

Office for National Statistics

• Julie Stanborough (ONS Lead)
• Owen Abbott (ONS Deputy Lead)
• Cal Ghee (ONS Attendee)
• Iain Bell (Presenter)
• Pete Benton (Presenter)
• Sarah Henry (Presenter)
• Nicola Tyson-Payne (Presenter)
• Helena Rosiecka (Presenter)
• Andrew Nash (Presenter)
• Duncan Elliott (Presenter)
• Amy Large (Presenter)
• Rebecca Briggs (Presenter)
• Louisa Blackwell (Presenter)
• Nicky Rogers (Presenter)
• Jon Wroth-Smith (Presenter)
• Gareth Powell (Secretariat)
• Rob Turner (Secretariat)

1. Jon Wroth-Smith – A76 – ONS to review Covid situation in January in light of vaccination programme, in particular looking at how this will impact ability to conduct CCS.
2. Jon Wroth-Smith – A77– ONS to bring paper on addressing, in particular focusing on address checks.

1 – EAP149: 2021 Under-enumeration Strategy

The ONS presented a paper on the overall under-enumeration strategy for 2021 Census (EAP149: 2021 Census Statistical Design) and the panel discussed each aspect of this in detail. The panel complimented ONS on the extensive work behind the strategy and was pleased to see that most areas had already been reviewed at MARP. More detail was requested in two areas in particular, as shown in actions 76 and 77:

• Action 76 – ONS to review Covid situation in January in light of vaccination programme, in particular looking at how this will impact ability to conduct CCS.
• Action 77 – ONS to bring paper on addressing, in particular focusing on address checks

2 – Presentation – Methods to estimate international migration flows during the COVID-19 pandemic

Following the suspension of the International Passenger Survey (IPS) due to the pandemic, ONS has accelerated work on transformation of migration statistics to use administrative data. An underlying issue in this approach is the lag of data availability, caused both by COVID-19 and the definition of migration as over 12 months.  A key focus of the presentation was the first iteration of time series modelling to predict international migration in the absence of the IPS and lags in administrative data.

This panel suggested that for future iterations of the model, a multivariate approach may be better than the univariate approach currently used, as well as suggesting that different reference periods might be better than the final IPS data, which would be affected by both EU exit and the pandemic. The panel also cautioned that a time series model may result in correlated errors between outputs, something that did not occur when using the IPS.

The panel suggested further data sources that could be used to augment the model, such as information from HMRC of those claiming pensions from abroad, landlord data, and information from international removal companies. HESA datasets were also suggested by the panel, although there was discussion around how useful this would be given the numbers of students not physically present at universities due to the pandemic.

The panel invited ONS to present further work on the transformation of migration statistics in due course.

3 – EAP148: Methodology for decision making on the 2021 Census sex question concept and associated guidance

The panel received and commented on an ONS paper, highlighting the choice of target variable for the 2021 Census sex question, as well as draft guidance. The panel felt that ONS had clearly set out a range of target variables and its rationale for arriving at a particular choice. It was also satisfied with the opportunity to comment on the draft guidance.  The panel was grateful for the assurance that a final version of the paper, taking into account its comments, would be put into the public domain early in 2021, understanding the need for appropriate accompanying communications.

4 – COVID-19 Update

ONS updated the panel on current COVID-19 workstreams, in particular highlighting the effect on students and the Census Coverage Survey (CCS).

5 – Any other business

The panel briefly discussed length and frequency of future meetings, suggesting that additional sessions may be required as Census date approaches.