- 13:00 – Welcome and introductions – Sir Bernard Silverman
- 13:05 – Update on Plans for the 2023 Recommendation and FPMS – Jennet Woolford
- 13:30 – Travel and Tourism Reform Paper – EAP199 – Katie Davies
- 14:20 – Any other business
- 14:30 – End of Meeting
- Sir Bernard Silverman (Chair)
- Prof Ana Basiri
- Dr Oliver Duke-Williams
- Carl Emmerson
- Dr Nik Lomax
- Prof Natalie Shlomo
Office for National Statistics
- Gareth Powell (ONS Lead)
- Magdolna Lorinc (ONS Secretariat)
- Jennet Woolford (ONS Attendee)
- Sarah Henry (ONS Attendee)
- Katie Davies (ONS Presenter)
- Dean Fletcher (ONS Presenter)
- Matt Early (ONS Attendee)
1. Welcome and introductions
- The chair of the panel, Sir Bernard Silverman, welcomed attendees to the session.
2. Update on Plans for the 2023 Recommendation and FPMS
- ONS provided an update on the Future Population and Migration Statistics System (FPMS), including the strategic vision, evidence to be delivered, benefits to users, plans for publications on different characteristics and planned further research.
- ONS detailed the consultation and engagement plans. MARP stressed the importance of engaging with a wide range of Census users and was pleased to note family historians being included in the consultation.
- ONS mentioned the need to work closely with National Records of Scotland (NRS) and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), who are at slightly different stages of their transformation work. The panel suggested using this opportunity to review and harmonise inconsistencies across the constituent countries.
- The immediate ONS focus for FPMS is analysing responses to the consultation. Based on that, ONS will define work plans and priorities, work towards national statistics accreditation for the DPM-produced mid-year estimates and start to embed them in core statistics.
3. Travel and Tourism Reform Paper – EAP199
- ONS gave an outline of the paper, highlighting key issues and questions received from the panel.
- MARP asked for clarification on sampling those who travel between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and across the common travel area. ONS explained they are only sampling categories who are not covered by other surveys, for example, foreign visitors travelling to Northern Ireland after spending time in Great Britain. The panel stressed the importance of having the same regulations within the UK, regardless of direction of travel, and acknowledged the ONS’s sensitivity to this issue.
- The panel was interested in how age, nationality and gender are recorded when a passenger declines the interview. ONS clarified that a passenger providing none of these variables would be classified as a ‘refusal’, while if they provided some information, they would be classified as a ‘minimum’, used only in the weighting to adjust other responses.
- Responding to questions from MARP on weighting, ONS said that the same sampling frame will be used for both CAA and IPS, however with different flights selected for each so there is no possibility of entering the survey on multiple routes. Then, different composite calibration methods were discussed. The panel mentioned that in composite calibration auxiliary information from the previous time point can be included as in the Labour Force Survey in Canada.
- On MARP’s request, ONS provided more details on the IPS imputation methods. The panel raised the issue of high imputation rates for fares and expenditure, and there was a discussion on the limitations of IPS methodology to collect reliable and accurate data on these topics and asked for further information and assurance on imputation and data collection.
- MARP noted the discussion on the challenges of imputing fares and expenditure is related to the widening scope of the panel, expanding from Census and population estimates to more diverse topics.
ONS to bring more information on Travel and Tourism imputation and data collection methods/alternatives.
4. Any other business
- ONS thanked the panel for their engagement over the last few months when having shorter but more frequent meetings. ONS explained that going ahead, they plan on having about three meetings a year, contingent on the papers coming up and their urgency.
- ONS to consider the IPS imputation and data collection methods.
- ONS to bring back a revised Travel and Tourism proposal with the suggested investigations and further developments to MARP.
- The secretariat to draft the annual report before the next meeting.