Panel:

• Nik Lomax – University of Leeds (Chair)
• Marie McAuliffe – Independent Consultant
• Arkadiusz Wisniowsk – University of Manchester
• Georgina Sturge – Migration Observatory

ONS representatives:

• Victoria Chenery Claire Hill
• Brendan Georgeson
• Rhys Owen-Williams
• Fiona Aitchison
• Jo David

Apologies:

• Nick Taylor -Deputy Director for Population and Migration Research and Development, ONS
• Jakub Bijak – University of Southampton and Centre for Population Change

Welcome address and status of prior actions

The Chair welcomed the panel and invited comments on previously circulated key messages before addressing currently open actions.

Actions agreed for closure by the Chair:

• MMSG006: Panel-suggested research areas addressed through a workplan approved via correspondence.
• MMSG007: Key messages approved post-meeting and submitted to the National Statistician’s Advisory Panel on 15/09/2022.
• MMSG010: Vaccination data explored for British Nationals methodology; found to have limited value and high resource demands.
• MMSG011: ONS liaised with the DPM team and shared relevant work on under coverage and age profile modelling.

Actions to remain open until after the publication release on 18 November:

• MMSG008: ONS to confirm the distributions used in the coverage adjustment for British Nationals estimates. Coverage adjustment and uncertainty analysis are ongoing, with completion expected by November 2025.
• MMSG009: ONS to investigate potential gaps in emigration estimates for British Nationals within RAPID. This work is progressing in line with MMSG008.

A query was raised regarding the use of pupil census data and its relevance to vaccination coverage and population estimates. It was confirmed that this had been followed up. The school census does not contain nationality so is therefore of limited use in measuring under 18 British nationals. While the pupil census was considered, the chosen approach involves using EU visa data to adjust for immigration coverage among under-18s. This decision was based on the availability of age profile data for EU migrants, which aligns with patterns observed in European migration, despite the UK no longer being in the EU.

Overstayers presented by ONS

ONS presented on the overstayers project, outlining its aim to improve UK migration statistics by identifying both visa and non-visa overstayers and adjusting Long-Term Migration (LTM) estimates accordingly. The project seeks to enhance accuracy and reduce uncertainty by using linked administrative data to better understand travel patterns and outcomes.

This work addresses a previously unexplored area of travel data, aiming to fill a gap in understanding overstayer patterns.

The panel expressed overall support for the direction of the overstayers work, acknowledging the complexity and sensitivity of the topic.

Cohort analysis for work visas presented by ONS

Due to time constraints, a full presentation was not delivered, but ONS provided a brief overview of ongoing work to extend cohort analysis to long-term international migrants (LTIM) on work-related visas. The aim is to better understand migration patterns, transitions between visa types, and length of stay over time.

The panel thanked the ONS for the presentation.

National Population Projections

The presentation outlined the current methodology, rationale for exploring alternatives, and the development process.