• Madeleine Sumption (Chair) (Migration Observatory)
• Jonathan Portes (Kings College London)
• Frank Laczko (Independent)
• Moritz Marbach (University College London)
• Michael O’Connor (Independent )
• Alan Manning (London School of Economics)
• Esther Roughsedge (National Records of Scotland)
• Sandy Fitzpatrick (NISRA) (deputising)
• Jon Simmons (Home Office) (deputising)
• Mary Gregory (ONS)
• Victoria Chenery (ONS)
• Melissa Randall (ONS)
• Oliver Gomersall (ONS) (minutes)

Apologies:

• Richard Elliott (NISRA)
• Andrew Needham (Department for Work and Pensions)
• Simon Palmer (Home Office)

ABME – Admin-Based Migration Estimates

DPM – Dynamic Population model

DWP – Department for Work and Pensions

IPS – International Passenger Survey

HO – Home Office

LTIM – Long-Term International Migration

MARP – Methodological Assurance Review Panel

MSUG – migration Statistics User Group

NISRA – Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

NRS – National Records Scotland

NS – National Statistician

ONS – Office for National Statistics

RAPID – Registration and Population Interaction Database

UKSA – United Kingdom Statistics Authority

Key messages

1. Establishing the group represents a positive step forward in the external assurance processes for international migration statistics
2. The panel advises that ONS should focus on improving the accuracy and depth of the existing biannual statistics and that moving to the production of quarterly net migration estimates should not be the priority
3. The panel should discuss the coherence and interplay of other statistics which rely on migration statistics and support the ONS
4. The panel advises that ONS should prioritise research projects that will have the most significant impact on the core Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) statistics, given the finite resource.

1. Introduction

1. Madeleine Sumption (chair) opened the panel meeting and welcomed panel members.
2. Mary Gregory explained the governance structure and how this panel will provide advice to the National Statistician. This group will receive reports from the newly convened Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP) sub-group on international migration and the Migration Statistics User Group (MSUG) in order to be in a position to provide robust advice.

2. Scene-setting

1. Mary Gregory provided information on the wider context which migration statistics are in, including the recently published review by Sir Robert Devereux, the scrutiny which migration statistics attracts and the recent UKSA recommendation on the future of population and migration statistics.
2. Melissa Randall provided an overview of the recent developments, moving from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) to administrative data over the last few years. Current estimates are provided based on the nationality groups of EU+, non-EU+ and British Nationals due to the availability of data for each grouping. There was recognition that these groupings may not meet all user needs and work is ongoing to develop other options which allow for visa/non-visa splits, allowing users to focus on the way different migration routes can be managed.
3. The panel discussed the utility of quarterly migration statistics being published. The panel advises that the production of quarterly net migration estimates should not be the priority and that ONS should instead focus on improving the accuracy and depth of the existing long-term international migration statistical releases in May and November each year.
4. Victoria Chenery introduced other areas of research which are under consideration which includes; unauthorised migration, unmatched leave / overstayers, temporary mobility, modern slavery, circular migration, mirror statistics. Research is also underway into addressing known gaps in the current methods and improving the current estimates of EU and British Nationals. There will be an agenda item at the next meeting to gain insight on how to best prioritise possible future areas of research.

3. EU and British Nationals: Methodology & Data Sources

1. Victoria Chenery introduced research on EU and British Nationals methods and data sources. Current methods for EU nationals are based on Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data from the DWP and methods are in development using Home Office Borders and Immigration Data. The collaboration and support from the Home Office was noted during this process.
2. Current methods for British Nationals are based on the IPS and methods are in development to move to using RAPID data from DWP.
3. The newly established MARP sub-group on international migration will receive a paper on both areas of research in August and provide a report to the next meeting of this group who will be asked to provide views and advice to the National Statistician on moving to new methods and data sources. A decision will be taken by the ONS on implementing these methods for the next publication of net migration estimates in November.

4. Future Strategic Planning

1. Madeleine Sumption introduced the role of the group in relation to future strategic planning and asked what information is required in order to have a useful discussion at the next meeting.
2. It was noted that user needs will be taken into account when thinking about the longer-term strategy.