• Madeleine Sumption (Chair) (Migration Observatory)
• Jonathan Portes (Kings College London)
• Frank Laczko (Independent)
• Moritz Marbach (University College London)
• Michael O’Connor (Independent )
• Alan Manning (London School of Economics)
• Esther Roughsedge (National Records of Scotland)
• Jackie Honey (Home Office) (deputising)
• Rachel Harker (House of Commons Library) (deputising)
• Andrew Needham (Department for Work and Pensions)
• Arkadiusz Wisniowski (MARP international migration sub-group)
• Jakub Bijak (MARP international migration sub-group)
• Mary Gregory (ONS)
• Brendan Georgeson (ONS)
• Melissa Randall (ONS)
• Annabelle Tyrrell (ONS)
• Nick Taylor (ONS)
• Jo David (ONS) (support)
• Josephine Foubert (ONS) (minutes)

Apologies:

• Richard Elliott (NISRA)
• Simon Palmer (Home Office)
• Esme Kirk-Wade (House of Commons Library)
• Victoria Chenery (ONS)

ABME – Admin-Based Migration Estimates

DWP – Department for Work and Pensions

IPS – International Passenger Survey

HO – Home Office

LTIM – Long-Term International Migration

MARP – Methodological Assurance Review Panel

MSUG – migration Statistics User Group

NISRA – Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

NRS – National Records Scotland

NS – National Statistician

ONS – Office for National Statistics

RAPID – Registration and Population Interaction Database

UKSA – United Kingdom Statistics Authority

Key messages to the National Statistician

1. The panel recommends moving to the new methods in November for the estimation of British Nationals and EU+ nationals. They advised that further work is necessary to understand why the new methods produce different figures compared to the previous methods, and what is driving those differences.
2. The panel emphasises the need to communicate clearly the detail about the revised numbers, including remaining uncertainties, especially in the British nationals’ data. For example, the panel believes that RAPID may be overestimating both immigration and emigration for British nationals, and these errors will cancel out to some extent in the net figures.
3. The panel notes the need for this technical detail within the planned published methods paper for both EU+ and British nationals.
4. The panel noted the release of the prediction intervals methodology paper which will be released on October.
5. The panel discussed the strategic direction for ONS migration statistics based on user needs and proposes to write up a note for future strategy.
6. In future, an informed decision will be made about implementation alongside LTIM.

1. Introduction

1. The Chair opened the panel meeting and welcomed panel members.
2. The panel were asked to raise any questions on actions from the previous meeting circulated before the meeting. No questions were raised.

2. Key messages were noted from Methodological Assurance Review Panel: Migration statistics sub-group

1. The panel welcomed the updates and presentations on the research into new data sources for estimating the migration of EU+ visa holders, EUSS and British nationals.
2. The panel endorses the ONS recommendation to move to Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data for estimating EU+ national visa holders and EU Settled Status, with recommendations for further areas of research ahead of changing methods and in the longer-term.
3. The panel endorses the ONS recommendation to move to DWP Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data for estimating British nationals, with recommendations for further areas of research ahead of changing methods and in the longer-term.
4. A research paper will be published in November 14th ahead of the Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) November 27th release which will address many of these recommendations including uncertainty measures, differences between HOBI and RAPID, explanation of over-estimation of emigration in RAPID (EU+) and under-estimation in IPS (British).
5. The panel will look forward to providing further input and assurance once these changes have been implemented.

3. Key messages were noted from the Migration Statistics User Group

1. The Migration Statistics User Group welcomes the opportunity to support the Advisory Panel by providing a user perspective on official migration statistics.
2. The group supports the proposed move to HOBI data for estimating EU+ visa holders and EUSS which will align more closely with non-EU+ nationals methods.
3. The group supports the proposed move to RAPID data for estimating British nationals which will align more closely with non-EU+ nationals methods.
4. The group recommends careful consideration of how this change will be explained to users and the reasons for revisions once the decision is made.

4. Research on EU and British Nationals: Methodology and Data Sources

1. The ONS presented a summary of the recommendation to move to improved methods and data sources for EU+ nationals (including visa holders and settled status), and British nationals. This included the benefits of moving away from the IPS for British nationals and aligning EU+ methods with those already used for non-EU+. An overview of steps taken to develop the research and quality assure them over time (including MaRAG and MARP).
2. Reports from the MARP migration statistics sub-group and Migration Statistics User Group were noted which support the proposed methods changes with recommendations for additional research and development before and after implementation.
3. The proposed plan for November 2025 is to publish a research article that outlines the methods changes and revises data covering 2021 up to year ending December 2024, with the regular releases published on the 27 November adding new data points up to the year ending June 2025, also based on new methods. An engagement plan including a blog on the day of publication is being developed.
4. The panel discussed the proposed changes, based on the evidence packs that were shared prior to the meeting. The panel raised questions:
5. Clear communication about the revised estimates as well as the remaining uncertainties and areas of further research is necessary to ensure users understand the methods changes and their impacts on the statistics.
6. The ONS noted that a coverage adjustment for British nationals has been developed considering the limitations of the RAPID-based approach, using Census immigration for different age profiles and HOBI data. Additionally, research has been started to identify and develop behaviour-based estimates for British nationals based on alternative data sources such as POLE but this still needs significant development.
7. The panel noted the need for detailed description of the new methods and transparency about British nationals (such as by age and sex profile) who are identified to have been immigrating and emigrating based on RAPID.
8. The panel noted the differences between HOBI- and RAPID based methods and estimates for EU nationals with settled status. The panel recommended areas of further research, with particular attention for enabling clear communication about revisions due to methods improvements.
9. The ONS noted the need for further research and development of these methods both ahead of and after implementation.
10. The panel made recommendations around stakeholder engagement ahead of the proposed methods changes and their impact.
11. The panel discussed the need for clear communication about differences in revised data. It is important to demonstrate why the new methods are improvements and why users can have more confidence in these estimates.
12. The panel supported the recommendation to move to new methods and data sources for British nationals and EU+ nationals. Despite the limitations and questions raised, the proposed data sources have benefits over the current data sources used. There is further work planned to understand why the new methods produce different figures, what is driving the differences, and whether the changes are plausible. Given the urgency of producing a figure for British nationals’ emigration and the absence of any other available method, we recommend moving to the new methods for EU+ and British nationals in November.

5. Prediction intervals

1. The ONS presented on the methods in development for providing users with a probability interval for current non-EU estimates. A research paper is planned to be published on October 7.
2. The ONS indicated that based on feedback after the publication they will make an informed decision as to whether prediction intervals will accompany future releases.

6. Long-term strategy

1. The Chair introduced the discussion and invited the panel to share ideas on long-term needs for migration statistics and future priorities.
2. The panel discussed ideas about necessary statistics in between censuses, the need for statistics about stocks including characteristics and geographical locations by nation and other subnational areas.
3. The panel raised the need for short-term migration statistics, and understanding the interaction between long-term and short-term migration behaviours and patterns.
4. The panel noted the need for clarity on data that will be produced from the Transformed Labour Force Survey, from available administrative data sources and how the ONS can prepare in an agile way to react to changing data needs such as harnessing data linkage opportunities to build resilience in face of problems and uncertainties.
5. The panel welcomes seeing an overview of projects that are being planned within the ONS and understanding their prioritisation.
6. The panel proposes to write up a note for future strategy to reflect the discussion and support the development.