The Chair welcomed members to the meeting and noted apologies from Ash Smith and Jane Falkingham. Ellie Price attended as a delegate for Tom Hemingway, and Siobhan Dickens attended for Marcus Bell.
Members approved the minutes of the January meeting.
2. Population Statistics System and Census SRO update
The Executive Director for Population, Census and Social Statistics updated the Committee on recent and ongoing work in the Census Programme and population statistics system. The Census topic consultation had closed and teams were beginning to analyse the results. The results and respondent demographics were not clear yet, but the team were pleased with the range of responses and would publish the breakdown of the respondents in April in an initial report on the consultation. The ethnicity harmonised standard consultation also closed on 4 February, and the criteria had been confirmed and would be circulated to the Committee. The 2027 Test was discussed, and ONS had published an update on the Test and Census Strategy on 4 March.
The Census team presented the first iteration of management information (MI), based on the Census Programme Delivery Confidence dashboard. Members found the supporting narrative helpful at this stage of the Programme, but that metrics and charts would be helpful as the Programme progressed. Members agreed a clearer link between the Programme risks and the MI would support the Committee to effectively monitor the risks. The Chair raised the importance of having a holistic approach to monitoring, for example ensuring the Committee’s engagement is effectively targeted to identify the most relevant information and concerns. A ‘next steps’ tracker would also be helpful to target the Committee’s focus on specific issues.
The Committee thanked the Executive Director for the updates and were pleased to see the development of Management Information. This would be developed to include controls and more metrics as the Programme matured. The effectiveness of the MI would be continuously monitored by the Committee.
3. Population Estimates for England and Wales
ONS updated the Committee on their plans for mid-year population estimates (MYE). The decision not to produce or publish separate Admin-Based Population Estimates (ABPEs) was announced on 4 March, and ONS chose to take a continuous improvement approach to the current methodology. The Committee were briefed on this decision at the January meeting.
Members heard that both methodologies were complex and provided challenges. The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) were undertaking a compliance review which would be published in May. ONS had engaged consistently with the OSR and were expecting requirements and recommendations from the report. The Committee heard of the internal and external assurance groups involved, including strategic level oversight provided by this Committee. Going forwards, the work would focus on prioritising improvements to internal and international migration at local authority level from 2026 estimates, learning from ABPEs, alignment with Census 2031, and clear signposting and transparent communication with users.
The Committee discussed the item. The following points were raised in discussion:
the impact of the upcoming reorganisation of local authorities on mid-year estimates. Work was ongoing with the geography team and ONS would provide follow-up information to Stephen Aldridge;
the role of the UK Statistics Authority Board in working with other government departments and public bodies to ensure reliable high quality administrative data is shared with the ONS to inform the estimates;
the continued use of a legacy platform to host the estimates, and how to move them off a legacy system; and
ONS would consider how to revise historic series, noting the challenge to balance user needs of stability and accuracy.
The Committee discussed the associated risks of both methodologies and the continuous improvement approach.
4. Census 2031 Programme Resourcing Update
ONS presented the resourcing status and approach for the Census 2031 Programme. ONS presented the planned target headcounts across the Population, Census and Social Statistics Group, and resource drawn from other areas of ONS. ONS would use a variety of recruitment options, including reserve lists, redeployment, expression of interests, cross-government and external recruitment. While the scale of the programme required ambitious recruitment, almost all Deputy Director roles had been filled, and the target to achieve 75 per cent recruitment of roles by end of Q1 was realistic.
Members discussed the update. The following points were raised in discussion.
project delivery and digital and data were key internal delivery partners, but more work could be done to monitor resource against activities internally;
the balance of using contingent labour and permanent ONS staff, the potential risk this could have on other ONS core priorities, but also the risk of skills and knowledge not being retained by core staff;
the team were confident they were attracting the right skills and maintained a high standard when recruiting at this point;
how to enhance ways of working and processes to create a nimble, collaborative and purpose driven team. There would be greater transparency and collaboration across the Programme to maximise productivity;
balancing the shared endeavour of the Census across the office while not taking away from ONS’ economic statistics recovery. Problems with delivery of the Census would have a major reputational impact on the ONS, which would inherently link to ONS’ recovery and trustworthiness in other areas; and
the Census team had a productive conversation with the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), and other government departments, such as the Department for Business and Trade (DBT), may also support ONS to develop innovative solutions.
The Committee were supportive of the approach to recruitment and emphasised the value and impact of an agile and collaborative workforce. The Committee would monitor the progress of recruitment through the management information, and periodic updates at meetings, and acknowledged the potential risk it posed to the Programme if not done correctly.
5. Census Strategic Risks and Assurance
ONS presented a paper on the development of an Authority Strategic Risk, and the breadth of risks faced by the Programme and their management. A dedicated strategic risk would be added to the Authority risk profile to reflect the importance of the census within the statistical system. The paper also presented 17 structural risks that shaped the programme, and discussed the interdependencies of the risks across the census system. The development of risks formed the basis for the Programme’s design choices, assurance strategy and readiness plans. The risks reflected external volatility that must be absorbed, design fragilities and delivery execution.
Members discussed the approach to risk management across the Authority’s governance framework, including consideration by the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee (ARAC), Census 2031 Programme Board, and Population Statistics System Committee. The Programme Board would be responsible for the detail of the Programme risks, Population Statistics System Committee would be responsible for oversight and challenge of the risks, and the overlying strategic risk, ARAC would receive regular risk updates and monitor the strategic risk in line with their oversight of the entire strategic risk profile. ARAC could also request deep dives as required.
The Committee discussed the update. The following points were raised in discussion:
members acknowledged the scale of work evident in the paper and supporting materials;
the strategic risk should more explicitly outline the reliance and interdependence of external factors;
the development of controls and a scoring process was central to being able to monitor the risks through management information. An end-to-end view of the risk was essential before sufficient assurance could be provided to ARAC and the Authority Board. The Chair suggested a standing item for the Committee to review a handful of the risks at each meeting;
an understanding of the top five risks, or an impact assessment would be helpful to inform the Committee’s understanding and monitoring of the risks;
how the Authority Board could support ONS to enhance its cooperation with Northern Ireland and Scotland;
the risks would feed into the stakeholder engagement strategy which was in development; and
the risks could be framed around different segments of the population to support a targeted mitigation, for example, younger people could be more prone to non-response.
The Committee approved the approach to monitoring risks and commended the thorough assessment of threats to the Programme. The Committee emphasised the importance of embedding risk mitigation and management into the workplan.
