The Chair welcomed members to the inaugural meeting of the Population Statistics System Committee. The Chair outlined the Committee’s role as advising the UK Statistics Authority Board on progress of an agreed programme of work to support the population statistics system, and preparation for a census in 2031 including the use of administrative data, drawing on different sources of expertise to be able to advise the Board.
The Chair welcomed the breadth of experience and expertise in the Committee membership and invited members to introduce themselves.
2. Overview of Population and Migration Statistics
The Executive Director for Population and Census gave an overview of the Population and Migration Statistics System. She presented the ambitions agreed by the Authority Board and noted that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) were investigating how best to achieve these ambitions, through census and admin data. The ONS sought to complement census data with admin data, to produce the most accurate picture of the UK.
3. Overview of Governance and Decision Making to Date
The Director for Population Statistics Transformation presented on the Census Recommendation published in June 2025 and reflected on lessons learned from 2021. He highlighted how ONS sought to build on the success of the 2021 Census, enhancing the design with increased use of administrative data to reduce respondent burden and enhance the data and outputs. The Census Taskforce were working closely with the devolved governments.
The Director provided an overview of the timeline, informing members that the milestones in the next phase of work were the 2027 Test, development of the outline business case, and drafting of the White Paper.
Members discussed both updates. The following points were raised in discussion:
it would be a challenge to prepare for the 2031 Census given the extent of changes that could take place before the census was conducted. The census plans should be sensitive to emerging challenges and maintain a degree of agility to adapt where possible;
the 2027 Test and 2029 Rehearsal were critical to test operational viability and end-to-end cohesion. The team were mindful of ensuring the census can accommodate change responsibly. Members were interested to understand more about the key decision points of the programme;
initial UNECE recommendations for the 2030 Census round show international peers were facing similar choices, including greater focus on administrative data, higher expectations around testing and openness, and anticipating developments in technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and cyber security;
it would be helpful to consider the aims of the census outputs and work backwards when designing the questionnaire to ensure the outputs were most relevant and valuable for users;
increased politicisation and the next general election were cited as factors that could impact the population statistics system and timeline; and
it would be useful to understand the population statistics risks in the context of Authority strategic risks, many of which were currently out of appetite.
The Committee emphasised the extent of change expected in the system and the importance for ONS to deliver on its recovery plans for economic statistics alongside the census. Members thanked ONS for their updates and asked that referenced supporting material was circulated.
4. Topic Consultation 2025
ONS introduced the overview of the Census Topic Consultation that was currently underway. The Committee heard of the importance of the consultation to understand user needs, the work with the devolved governments to align evaluation criteria, and preparations for the level of media coverage and challenge that was expected.
ONS presented the decision-making frameworks, which would support them to navigate future difficult decisions, including consideration of operational requirements, user requirements, data quality, alignment with the benefits of the census, alternative sources, comparability beyond England and Wales, and respondent burden.
Members discussed the item and the following points were raised in discussion:
the comprehensive coverage of the census allowed small populations to be included, with the use of write-in boxes where tickboxes did not list an identity. This was a success of the 2021 Census.
lessons learned from 2021 on non-response, and the challenges of engaging younger people to ensure a high response rate and representativeness;
how the ONS would prioritise topics based on where the census would add most value and if the data was not available from administrative sources;
the risk of extending the questionnaire to include topics that could affect response rate and the added cost of having to approach respondents multiple times for completion;
the financial cost and practical limitations of paper questionnaires, but also the importance of inclusion;
the difficulty of assessing what would be important to the public in 2031 from a consultation held now. Stakeholder engagement would continue and be central to the Programme, ONS would evaluate new evidence as it came in and manage the outcomes into frameworks to ensure coverage of feedback;
the team were considering how to adapt and add questions or topics later while following the due process;
the importance of value for money and ensuring workstreams focused on cohesion throughout the Programme;
ensuring the census was fully accessible for disabled people and engaging with a range of groups and charities to ensure a variety of viewpoints were heard through the consultation; and
inclusivity was central to the programme and runs throughout the development and design of the census.
Members thanked the ONS for the presentation and the depiction of the evaluation criteria. The Chair concluded that areas highlighted for future discussion would be included in the Committee’s forward agenda. It would also be useful for members to have clarity on timing of key decision points.
5. Census Strategy
ONS introduced the Census Strategy, which would be a public-facing foundational document for the Census Programme. The strategy would be published in the New Year and would allow an extra form of scrutiny.
Members heard that the strategy aimed to provide a clear vision of what the Census sought to achieve, supported by clear goals, a means of measuring success, and the principles that underpin how decisions would be made.
The strategy would support alignment across the programme and ensure delivery of the Census 2031 alongside delivery of ONS recovery plans. It would be updated throughout the programme, with expectations that the more detailed levels would be adapted but that the high-level goals and objectives stayed consistent, at least in theme. The team welcomed verbal and written feedback.
The following points were raised in discussion:
members were supportive of the structure of the strategy;
how to balance risk and innovation with ensuring the foundational aspects of the census were executed to the highest quality. The team sought to achieve disciplined innovation, prioritising adherence to the timeline and rigorous testing to prepare thoroughly for Census day;
the value of learning from international partners;
the quality principle may be trying to cover too much in the framework, and it may be valuable to have a separate principle on ‘usefulness’ to ensure both the quality of the data being captured and its relevance to users were represented explicitly and separately. Members discussed that this may also improve engagement with non-government users of census throughout the process;
the need for more disaggregated data, for example in geographies and sub-national statistics, created more challenges for quality. The team would consider utility of the data as part of the evaluation criteria and use of administrative data where available;
trustworthiness was a key principle but was noted to be at risk both in terms of the wider social and political environment, and ONS’ recent challenges;
the census provided value in identifying characteristics and small groups where response was harder to get and administrative data was not available;
the mandation and positive public perception of the census had supported responsiveness in previous censuses, however, there would be a significant risk if it was perceived to be non-neutral; and
a key part of the value delivered for users in the 2021 Census was the flexible data builder which allowed users to custom-build datasets.
ONS thanked members for the feedback and invited further comments by correspondence. The Committee supported the publication of the strategy document in early 2026.
6. Forward agenda
The Committee discussed significant upcoming milestones for the programme and the system and considered areas where a substantive discussion could be needed. The following items were suggested:
the risk, scale, drivers and impact of non-response and relevant mitigations in the respondent journey, including emphasis on inclusivity and accessibility;
understanding at what point ONS intended to finalise key decisions, and where the last responsible moment would be to make changes;
benchmarking and international comparators on response rates and trust polling;
communications and media handling;
what admin data was currently available and the gap that census was trying to fill;
alongside risk and assurance, also to consider opportunity;
UK context and working with Devolved Governments and other parts of the governance framework.
The Committee were interested to learn about the approach to the 2021 Census and lessons learned, they were directed towards the General Report as a comprehensive record of the Census 2021 planning process, delivery, and lessons learned.
The Chair welcomed further input by correspondence.
7. Terms of Reference
The Committee were asked to review and agree the Terms of Reference.
It was agreed that a reference to supporting ONS navigate the risks and their mitigation would be added to the roles and responsibilities.
The Terms of Reference were agreed.
8. Any other business
The Census teams offered to provide further teaching sessions with members to discuss aspects of the Census or System.
