Foreword from the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority
This page is available in Welsh (Cymraeg).
As Chair of the UK Statistics Authority it is my pleasure, on behalf of our Board, to endorse the advice given to us by the National Statistician on the future development of population and migration statistics for England and Wales and to present this recommendation for the necessary next steps to ministers. The recommendation was presented to the Board on 27 March 2025 by Sir Ian Diamond, who subsequently stepped down as National Statistician on 9 May 2025. The Acting National Statistician Emma Rourke endorses the recommendation, and the Board continues to support it enthusiastically. We would like to thank Sir Ian for all his hard work along with colleagues in helping to develop the proposals.
Population and migration statistics matter to us all, both in our local communities and at the regional and national level. Their quality, inclusivity and representativeness are intrinsic to our understanding of the society we live in and to the ability of public service providers, the private sector and civil society to make informed decisions.
The National Statistician’s recommendation is to commission a mandatory questionnaire-based census in 2031 – building on the success and lessons of the last census in 2021 – and to continue to develop the ONS’s path-breaking population and migration statistics based on administrative data to provide more frequent and timely estimates. The recommendation urges the UK and Welsh Governments to commit to a regular and reliable flow of administrative data, which is necessary to maintain and further improve these estimates and would hold out the potential of moving to a system more fully reliant on administrative data in the future should ministers wish to do so.
The Authority Board believes that this recommendation is well aligned with the needs expressed by a wide range of users, including at the recent UK Statistics Assembly. It will deliver the granularity and detail regarding people’s characteristics that many users want, while making our population statistics more dynamic and responsive to evolving demands. Importantly, we believe that this recommendation for England and Wales provides a constructive foundation for the equivalent decisions that will need to be taken in Scotland and Northern Ireland and would underpin sound UK-wide estimates.
A mandatory census in 2031 is an exciting opportunity to build on past achievements, allowing the ONS to explore new ways to improve accuracy, inclusivity and accessibility and to harness statistical and technological innovations to enhance data collection, processing and analysis in a safe and ethical way. The 2021 census already made use of administrative data to complement conventional census returns and there would be greater scope to do so in 2031. This underlines the fact that in the dual-track approach being recommended here, each track strengthens the other.
If ministers accept this recommendation, the ONS and the Authority Board will focus determinedly on delivering a high-quality census in 2031 and further developing population estimates based on administrative data in a way that meets user needs and delivers value for money. We will monitor progress carefully and transparently and ensure that users remain fully engaged as the plans are further developed and implemented. My thanks to everyone who has contributed to the development of these proposals.