Recommendation 1: an England and Wales census in 2031

High-quality statistics about the population are essential to ensure people get the services and support they need, both within their communities and nationwide. Feedback from user engagement indicates a clear need for the continued provision of very granular statistics which can be achieved through a questionnaire-based census of the whole population. This would provide a strong foundation for the ONS’s continued work with administrative data as it continues to mature.

The UK Government should therefore commission and resource the ONS to begin preparations for a questionnaire-based census in 2031. This census should be designed for a 2031 society, building on the ONS expertise gained in 2021, securing efficiencies by further integrating administrative data into traditional questionnaire-based census data collection. The ONS should ensure that the resulting census data support the ongoing development of the admin-based outputs described in Recommendation 2. 

The primary purpose of a traditional census operation has historically been to provide the stock measure for mid-year population estimates. Population estimates are used in a variety of ways to inform decision-making, as survey weights, and as denominators. Additional aims of a questionnaire-based census include the collection of granular characteristics and attributes data, and the ability to provide a valued research dataset for use by accredited researchers in trusted research environments. These should all be priority outputs from the proposed census in 2031.

As part of its outreach and engagement for this census, there will be e a strong focus on groups that are traditionally underrepresented in administrative and survey data sources. Through the resulting census data and outputs, this will enable the ONS and its public sector partners to deepen their understanding of administrative data quality, and support strategies to improve administrative data’s inclusivity and representativeness. This will improve the admin-based statistics of the future (as described in Recommendation 2) and facilitate intersectional analysis and insights into minority groups at low levels of geography on a more frequent basis.

Further research and testing, as well as learning from international colleagues and other national statistics institutes, will be essential in determining the design, balancing quality, cost and risk considerations. The approach should be developed alongside statistical producers in other parts of the UK to support delivery and coherence, dependent on decisions by ministers in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The approach should also be developed around user needs including conducting a topic consultation as early as possible.

In the design, delivery and outputs of a 2031 census ONS will seek to implement innovations, utilising recent developments in modern technology including Artificial Intelligence. The ONS will: 

• design a digital–first census with primarily online questionnaires for every household and communal establishment in England and Wales in 2031
• use administrative data to support census data collection and quality 
• use administrative data to cover additional topics of high user interest (e.g. income), and drive improvements to timeliness 
• ensure coherence across the UK, including (subject to decisions in Scotland and Northern Ireland) all nations benefiting from cross–UK publicity and a shared data–collection platform, balancing the needs of users in each nation with UK coherence 

The ONS will, as part of its plans for delivering a digital-first, questionnaire-based census, consider the needs of people who may face barriers in responding digitally, taking an inclusive approach that enables all parts of society to respond.

The 2031 census can help deliver an increasingly admin-based system of population and migration statistics for the future, underpinned by the benchmarking provided through a census data collection. Through the census operation, ONS will work with the citizen to deliver a step change in public acceptability and understanding around administrative data sharing, empowering citizens to be more aware of data, as described in Recommendation 2.