Members

• Jonathan Portes (Chair)
• Huw Pill (Bank of England)
• Tom Pybus (HM Treasury, delegate for Daniel Gallagher)
• Nye Cominetti (The Resolution Foundation)
• Richard Murray (Scottish Government)
• Stephanie Howarth (Welsh Government)
• Xiaowei Xu (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
• Philip Wales (Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency)
• Tim Butcher (Low Pay Commission)
• Jacob Pritchard (Cabinet Office, delegate for Steffan Jones)
• Jonathan Wadsworth (Royal Holloway College)

ONS secretariat

• Melanie Gore

ONS presenters

• Heather Bovill
• James Harris
• Leone Wardman
• Debbie Curtis
• David Freeman
• Martina Portanti
• Richard Heys

ONS colleagues

• Liz McKeown
• Tom Evans
• Katy Nicholls
• Sarah Ash
• Lualhati Santiago
• Katrina Tyrell
• Rob Cave

1. Introduction

1. The Chair opened the meeting, welcomed attendees, and highlighted the agenda covering prioritisation, TLFS progress, methodological developments, and wider labour market statistics.
2. The Chair stressed the importance of coherence across programmes and timely decisions on survey transition and quality assurance.

2. Highlights & Scope – Heather Bovill

1. Heather Bovill (HB) provided an overview of highlights since the last meeting:
   1. Labour Market Transformation update was published on 14 November.
   2. Labour Market Release was published on 11 November.
   3. Labour Market Technical group meeting was held on 6 November.
2. HB also noted upcoming dates for diary for the panel
   1. Economic Forum on 24 November.
   2. Economic Statistics Plan and Survey Improvement and Enhancement Plan updates on 4 December.
3. The scope of labour market work within the economic statistics plan was reiterated, and the focus areas for today’s meeting were highlighted: TLFS, LFS, ASHE, and productivity.

3. ONS Prioritisation Update – James Harris

1. James Harris (JH) outlined ONS’s commitment to ‘quality over quantity’ following the Permanent Secretary’s letter to the Deputy Chair of the UK Statistics Authority.
2. Areas under review include health, crime, subnational statistics (including APS), and international work.
3. The Panel discussed APS continuity; engagement is underway to assess future options and resource allocation. ONS encouraged all Panel members to provide any comments or concerns about usage of the APS through this engagement as soon as possible to ensure it is considered as part of reporting.
4. The Panel raised concerns, noting APS’ role in triangulating labour market indicators, especially for devolved governments.
5. The Panel noted the implications for labour market outputs and welcomed clarity on prioritisation.

4. Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) Programme Update – Heather Bovill

1. Heather Bovill (HB) gave an update on progress:
   1. First quarter of data based on short Core survey collected and processed.
   2. Successful launch of supported completion and sample size increases for the Plus survey.
   3. Data rotation is now aiming for implementation in April 2026 (previously January).
   4. Household, Socioeconomic and Local (HSL) stakeholder engagement is ongoing.
2. HB reiterated that the aim is to transition to the TLFS for our published headline labour market statistics in November 2026 if we and our users are ready, though if our (or users’) assessment of quality requires more data to be collected and assessed, the transition may extend into 2027.
3. The Panel emphasised the importance of clear communication on timelines and readiness assessments.

5. Statistical Methods for the Transformed Labour Force Survey – Leone Wardman

1. Leone Wardman (LW) presented methodological developments:
   1. Complex weighting and calibration strategies are being developed to address non-response and missingness.
   2. Imputation for core labour market variables and multiphase weights are also under development.
2. The Panel discussed challenges of online collection and supported a pragmatic approach to bias adjustments.

6. SIC/SOC Development – Debbie Curtis

1. Debbie Curtis (DC) outlined workstreams for improving coding industry and occupation.
2. AI-assisted dynamic questioning prototype is under early testing and aims to improve codability of occupation and industry responses.
3. Search-As-You-Type and classification algorithms are also in development.
4. The Panel discussed ethical considerations, transparency, and respondent burden.
5. Results from testing the AI performance and controls will be brought to a future Panel meeting.

7. LFS Reweighting Scenarios – David Freeman

1. David Freeman (DF) presented three scenarios for LFS reweighting timelines:
   1. Baseline (standard timelines for reweighting LFS – independent of TLFS transition).
   2. TLFS transition in November 2026.
   3. TLFS transition in May 2027.
2. The Panel discussed trade-offs between LFS reweighting and transition timing. Differing views were presented, with some emphasising that reweighting shouldn’t impact the TLFS timeline, and others suggesting that it would be better to reweight LFS first and then TLFS before transition. The Panel also emphasised the need for indicative impacts of reweighting headline aggregates to aid communication.

8. LFS Quality – David Freeman

1. David Freeman (DF) gave an update on response rates and coherence, noting response rates are improving and achieved interviews are approaching pre-COVID levels.
2. The Panel noted the comparison of headline employee figures between LFS and RTI.
3. Workforce jobs benchmarking is scheduled for December.
4. The Panel noted interest in NEETs estimates and subgroup representativeness and requested continued monitoring.

9. Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) Developments – Martina Portanti

1. Martina Portanti (MP) highlighted the key improvements in the 2025 cycle:
   1. Expanded digital collection for small businesses.
   2. AI-based occupation coding tool introduced.
   3. No major quality concerns have been raised; coherence challenges remain with other sources, and the Panel were supportive of further work in this area particularly around decile growth rates.

10. Labour Productivity Component Approach – Richard Heys

1. Richard Heys (RH) explained the shift from direct to component approach for hours worked to improve international comparability and reduce bias.
2. The Panel supported continued development and requested wider communication on implications for labour market and productivity trends.

11. Any other business

1. A summary of the ONS/ESCoE workshop on combining labour market data sources was shared.
2. Next meetings confirmed: January 2026 (online, 1 hour) then following the current format of online and in-person meetings.
3. The chair thanked attendees for contributions and reiterated the importance of stakeholder engagement.

Please note: these minutes were produced with the assistance of AI