Members

• Jonathan Portes (Chair, King’s College London)
• Tomas Key (Bank of England, delegate for Huw Pill)
• Tom Pybus (HM Treasury, delegate for Daniel Gallagher)
• Rosanna Colthorpe (Office for Budget Responsibility)
• Steve Ellerd-Elliot (Department for Work and Pensions)
• Nye Cominetti (Resolution Foundation)
• Kirsty Yule (Scottish Government, delegate for Richard Murray)
• Alexandra Fitzpatrick (Welsh Government, delegate for Stephanie Howarth)
• Philip Wales (Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency)
• Tim Butcher (Low Pay Commission)
• David Bell (University of Stirling)
• Chaitra Nagaraja (Exeter University)

ONS presenters

• Heather Bovill
• Colin Beavan-Seymour

ONS colleagues

• David Freeman
• James Harris
• Liz McKeown
• Tom Evans
• Katy Nicholls
• Sarah Ash

ONS secretariat

• Melanie Gore

1. Introduction

1. The Chair opened the meeting and welcomed attendees (including delegates).
2. The Chair emphasised that the core focus would be on TLFS operational performance and readiness, supported by broader updates from ONS.

2. ONS and Labour Market Updates – Heather Bovill

1. Heather Bovill (HB) provided an overview of highlights since the last meeting including Update on progress with the Economic Statistics Plan and Survey Improvement and Enhancement Plan published on 4 December and an ONS Leadership and business planning update.
2. HB also gave a summary of progress with the Annual Population Survey (APS) prioritisation.
3. HB gave additional updates from across the Labour Market Portfolio:
   1. The latest Labour Market Statistics and LFS Quality Update were released on 20 January, showing improvements in response rates and analysis of impacts on hours worked, attrition, and data coherence.
   2. An ESCoE project on reconciling employment rates is beginning work on a Bayesian reconciliation framework for labour market sources.
   3. Labour Market Administrative Data Project: initial linking of LFS/TLFS to PAYE has taken place with plans to bring work to future SAPLMS meetings.
   4. A new Labour Market Administrative Data Steering Group is being established, and various government departments expressed interest in joining.

3. Experimental Data Scenarios

1. The Panel discussed different approaches to publishing experimental Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) data to demonstrate progress and transparency, and considered the advantages, disadvantages and risks of doing so ahead of transition.
2. The Panel agreed that any publication approach should balance the need for transparency and demonstrating progress with the importance of data quality, stakeholder confidence, and minimising potential confusion in the labour market narrative.

4. TLFS Operations Overview and Core Survey Performance – Colin Beavan-Seymour

1. Colin Beavan-Seymour (CBS) presented an overview of the TLFS engagement Approach and Operational Design and Core Survey Performance including Response Rates.

5. Any other business

1. The Census 2031 topic consultation is open until 4 February 2026.
2. The ONS annual stakeholder satisfaction survey is open until 27 February 2026.
3. The Panel meeting dates for 2026 have been set, with the next meeting on 10 March.
4. The Chair thanked attendees for their contributions and reiterated the importance of continuous engagement as TLFS work intensifies toward transition.

Please note: these minutes were produced with the assistance of AI