Next meeting: 24 April 2025, Newport Boardroom

Members present

• Sir Robert Chote (Chair)
• Dr. Jacob Abboud
• Peter Barron
• Professor Sir Ian Diamond
• Ed Humpherson
• Professor Dame Carol Propper
• Emma Rourke
• Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
• Professor Mairi Spowage
• Dr. Sarah Walsh
• Penny Young

Other attendees

• Heather Bovill (for item 10)
• June Bowman
• Kirsty Campion (for item 12)
• Mary Gregory (for item 11)
• Mike Keoghan (for item 10)
• Alex Lambert (for item 10)
• Liz McKeown (for item 10)
• Sarah Moore
• Ruth Studley (for item 11)
• Natalie Tarr (for item 12)
• Tom Taylor

Secretariat

• Sally Jones

Apologies

• None

1. Apologies

1. There were no apologies.

2. Declarations of Interest

1. There were no new declarations of interest.

3. Minutes and matters arising from previous meetings

1. The minutes of the previous meeting held on 27 February were agreed.

4. Report from the Authority Chair [SA(25)13]

1. Non-Executive Directors had met before the meeting. They had discussed topics including the review of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Transformed Labour Market Survey (TLFS).
2. The Chair welcomed Professor Mairi Spowage to her first Board meeting. It was noted that a comprehensive NED Induction programme had been delivered for newly appointed NEDs, Professor Spowage, Dr Sarah Walsh and Peter Barron.
3. The Chair reported on his recent activities since the Board last met. Sir Robert had received a crime briefing by John Marais (ONS) and the team. The work was relevant to the Government’s mission, ‘safer streets’ and the Prime Minister’s priority to address violence against women and girls. On 17 March Sir Robert alongside Professor Sir Ian Diamond had met with HM Treasury (HMT) to discuss ONS prioritisation and phase two of the Spending Review 2025 (SR25). On 19 March Sir Robert had addressed a joint meeting of the finance committees of the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd and Northern Ireland Assembly.
4. The Chair informed the meeting that a joint review by the Authority Board and the Cabinet Office had been commissioned. The review would be led by Sir Robert Devereux, former Permanent Secretary at the Department for Work and Pensions. Discussions were ongoing with the Cabinet Office regarding the approach to communications.

5. Report from the Chief Executive [SA(25)14]

1. Sir Ian provided the Board with an overview of activity and issues since the last meeting, highlighting the following:
   1. the year-end financial position 2024/25 was forecast to be a small under expenditure;
   2. business planning 2025/26 was near completion with the final ONS Business Plan scheduled for discussion at this meeting;
   3. work was ongoing by the finance team alongside the Senior Leadership Team on the second phase of the Spending Review 2025 (SR25). The mandated elements had been submitted to HMT and discussions were ongoing on the overall submission;
   4. Sir Ian had attended a meeting at No.10 to discuss the work of the ONS;
   5. Sir Ian had attended the 56^th United Nations Statistical Commission in New York alongside an ONS delegation. International partners had highlighted the positive impact of the work by ONS.
   6. the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) had completed a review of the Integrated Data Service (IDS) programme;
   7. the publication of the UK Trade Bulletin scheduled for 14 March had been delayed due to errors identified during quality assurance. The publication was now scheduled for 28 March;
   8. the report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) regarding ONS’s Wealth statistics published in January, which had included implementing changes to the method for estimating Defined Benefit Pension Wealth, as recommended by a Government Actuary’s Department Review. The methodology had been implemented after extensive engagement including the IFS;
   9. as part of planned communications on the TLFS, ONS would be publishing a social survey recovery plan;
   10. Sir Ian had provided a paper for the Civil Service Operations Board on Reproducible Analytical Pipelines (RAPs) and data sharing, which had been well received with a request for further detail on how RAPs positively impact efficiency; and
   11. progress by ONS to address the long-standing issue of delays to coronial data associated with drug related deaths. Emma Rourke continued to work with the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) to maintain progress.
2. The Board heard that Sir Ian was scheduled to meet Georgia Gould, Parliamentary Secretary at the Cabinet Office early April to discuss topics including the recommendation for the future of population and migration statistics, following discussion at this meeting. Within her role, Georgia holds responsibility for Authority sponsorship.
3. Sir Ian would be taking on the role of Chair of the United Nation Economic Commission for Europe Statistics Group.
4. Members discussed the update. There were a number of issues, which highlighted the need for a more comprehensive communications strategy to respond to media coverage. It was noted that the publication of the ONS Business Plan in April would provide the opportunity to set out ONS’s key priorities. With regard to delays to statistical publications the number had reduced slightly in comparison to the previous year. There had been no change in the number of minor errors over the last year and quality assurance processes were identifying issues before publication. The issues raised by the IPA Review of the IDS were a cause for concern and related in part to the long-standing challenge of data sharing. As part of SR25, the Treasury Approval Panel for IDS was scheduled in the coming weeks.

6. Report from the Director General for Regulation [SA(25)15]

1. Ed Humpherson provided an update on regulation activity noting that he agreed that the IFS Report regarding ONS Wealth Statistics was a methodological choice by ONS and not an error.
2. The Board heard that Regulation Committee had considered OSR’s Review of Economic Statistics produced by the ONS. The draft report had been provided to ONS for comment and discussions were ongoing with the aim of publishing early April. OSR had written to ONS following its assessment of its practice of releasing market sensitive economic data outside of market trading hours at 07.00, supporting its plans to continue at that time. OSR had written to Tony Dent in response to correspondence about inflation statistics.
3. The independent review of data, statistics and research on sex and gender led by Professor Alice Sullivan had been published by the Department of Science Innovation and Technology on 19 March. Following a request from Professor Alice Sullivan a meeting would be scheduled with Ed Humpherson and Sir Robert regarding findings

7. Report from the Chair of Audit and Risk Assurance Committee

1. The Chair reported on the work of the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee which had last met on 13 March.
2. The Committee had considered:
   1. the financial position of the organisation and assurance on the forecast year end position;
   2. business planning 2025/26 and preparations for SR25 phase two;
   3. an update on the current strategic risk profile and the refreshed profile;
   4. delivery of the Internal Audit Plan 2024/25;
   5. Internal Audit Reports on Evergreen IT, Artificial Intelligence and RAP Migration;
   6. the draft Internal Audit Plan 2025/26; and
   7. the External Audit Planning timetable 2024/25.

8. Report from the Chair of Regulation Committee

1. The Chair reported on the work of the Regulation Committee which had last met on 20 March.
2. The Committee had considered:
   1. the review of Economic Statistics produced by ONS;
   2. the review of ONS statistics from the Wealth and Assets Survey;
   3. the review of ONS UK Trade Statistics, which had been de-accredited in 2014;
   4. emerging findings from the review of the adequacy of UK wide comparable statistics and data; and
   5. the development of OSR’s strategy and business plan.

9. ONS Business Plan and Spending Review 2025 update [SA(25)16]

1. Tom Taylor introduced the final draft of the ONS Business Plan 2025/26 and an update on the second phase of SR25.
2. The Board had provided feedback on the draft business plan in February. The final plan included further detail on the challenges posed by the financial context and the need for careful prioritisation.
3. Board members discussed the draft plan, noting that it clearly set out the balance between opportunity and challenge. The options analysis on making responses to surveys mandatory could help as part of the longer-term strategic approach to addressing survey response rates. The impact of inflation on survey costs was noted and the continuing need for surveys. Business statistics could be used to help understand the issues around participation. The reference to legacy transformation, link to statistical quality issues and the impact of reducing the pace of the work could be clearer.
4. The Board endorsed the business plan subject to the comments made. Publication of the plan was scheduled in April. The final submission of SR25 on 10 April would include the options analysis on making response to surveys mandatory.

10. Transformed Labour Force Survey [SA(25)17]

1. Alex Lambert and Liz McKeown introduced a paper which sought approval for the way forward on the Transformed Labour Force Survey project and Labour Force Survey (LFS). Since July 2024, the TLFS project had focused on testing and refining the TLFS design, mitigating key delivery risks in parallel and continuing to improve the quality of the existing LFS survey. To support decision making on the future of the TLFS an investment appraisal had been conducted. Options had been assessed against the ability to meet user data quality requirements, feasibility/risk of delivery, long-term viability, time, cost, affordability and value for money.
2. The recommendation by the National Statistician to the Board was based on a discussion and decision by the Executive Committee on 24 March. The Board was invited to consider and approve the recommendation to implement TLFS improvements and then transition to using TLFS for labour market statistics (option C in the paper).
3. The Board heard that the recommended option would implement the improved TLFS design at the earliest operationally feasible point, relying on an improved LFS for labour market data until the TLFS was assured. External academics, the Stakeholder Advisory Panel and the Labour Market Technical Group had endorsed the recommended option. Key stakeholders, HMT, the Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility had also endorsed the recommended option as the preferred way forward in a recent meeting with Professor Sir Ian Diamond.
4. Development of the TLFS improved design had been informed by the short-core tests (LMX) combined with extensive user engagement and technical assurance. The new TLFS design would comprise a short longitudinal core labour market focused survey taking an average of 15 minutes to complete delivered online first, supplemented by targeted telephone or face to face contact for non-responders. This would be complemented by a separate cross-sectional ‘Plus’ survey to provide wider socioeconomic, household and local data.
5. Members discussed the recommendation fully. The following points were made in discussion:
   1. the importance of taking a data-led approach to achieving pace while still ensuring appropriate data quality and managing remaining uncertainty, as indicated by the previous lessons learned from the past on TLFS;
   2. the assurance provided by the data quality, sustainability and value for money assessments that had been undertaken against the measures of success, which supported the recommended option as the strongest and was the preference of users and senior stakeholders;
   3. further detail on the LMX test results and a comparison of LMX with the TLFS, which provided assurance to the Board on the recommended option;
   4. the approach to mitigating key delivery risks to address the remaining challenges including managing the impact of survey change and improvements to the data capture of complex variables, specifically industrial and occupational classifications. It was noted that interviewers had been included in the process to address data capture of complex variables;
   5. the ambition for transition onto the TLFS within 2026, with an acknowledgment that the timeframe may move if ONS’s or critical users’ assessment was that more data was required to be collected and assessed. As such, the optimal timing of transition would be data-led and require consideration of acceptable trade-offs to balance both timeliness and quality;
   6. the need to address the long-term model for surveys going forward and the link to survey mandation; and
   7. the need to consider the content and timing of planned communications currently scheduled for 8 April. The communications would include a full acknowledgment of the issues that had to be addressed.
6. The Board endorsed the recommendation to implement TLFS improvements and then transition to using TLFS for labour market statistics (Option C). The Board noted that communications should be clear about the ambition for delivery of published headline labour market statistics. The communications could set out a window for delivery rather than a specific date. As discussed, the decision would be evidenced based and data led and may be later than November 2026.
7. On behalf of the Board Sir Robert noted thanks to Mike Keoghan for all of his achievements as Director General for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics. He was leaving ONS to join the Ellison Institute of Technology.

11. Future of Population and Migration Statistics Recommendation [SA(25)18]

1. As this area of work is policy in development, the minute from this item will be published upon completion.

12. Strategic Risk Profile [SA(25)19]

1. Natalie Tarr and Kirsty Campion introduced a paper which provided an update on the strategic risk profile following strategic risk workshops with Executive and Non-Executive Directors and discussion by the Executive Committee (ExCo) and the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee (ARAC).
2. The strategic risk profile demonstrates the most significant risk to the successful delivery of the Authority strategy and its strategic objectives. Following a review of the strategic risk profile a number of changes were proposed, particularly to the quality risks, which had been an area of challenge and a key focus of ExCo and ARAC over the last year. A more nuanced approach to the assessment of quality risks was proposed: SR3 ‘Quality Statistics’ would focus on the quality management framework; the introduction of a new economic statistics risk – SR7 ‘Quality economic statistics’ and the refresh of SR9 to focus on the end-to-end production of quality population statistics.
3. Board members discussed the refreshed risk profile and highlighted the lack of a specific risk on reputation, which formed part of both SR6 ‘Communications’ and SR0 ‘Independence, trustworthiness and impact’ and would also feature in the new economic statistics risk, SR7. It was noted that SR12 ‘Technological resilience’ was at the top end of risk appetite with future legacy plans being developed in line with the spending review process and available funding.
4. The Board endorsed the refreshed strategic risk profile and agreed that a further discussion would be scheduled to discuss SR0 ‘Independence, trustworthiness and impact’.

13. Any other business

1. The Board would next meet on 24 April 2025.