Next meeting: 18 December 2025, London Boardroom

Members present

• Penny Young (Chair)
• Dr Jacob Abboud
• Peter Barron
• Ed Humpherson
• Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
• Professor Mairi Spowage
• Professor Dame Carol Propper
• Emma Rourke
• Darren Tierney
• Dr Sarah Walsh

Other attendees

• Mo Baines (observer)
• June Bowman
• Sarah Moore
• Tom Taylor
• James Benford (from 13.30)
• Kirsty Campion (for item 13)
• Grant Fitzner (for item 14)
• Alex Lambert (for item 12)
• Liz McKeown (for items 12 and 14)
• Natalie Tarr (for item 13)
• Jennet Woolford (for item 12)

Secretariat

• Sally Jones
• Tom Marsh

Apologies

• None

1. Apologies

1. There were no apologies.

2. Declarations of Interest

1. There were no new declarations of interest.

3. Minutes and matters arising from previous meetings

1. The minutes of the previous meeting held on 30 October 2025 were approved.

4. Report from the Authority Chair [SA(25)59]

1. The Chair welcomed Mo Baines to the meeting as an observer, as part of her external review of Board effectiveness. Emerging findings from the review would be discussed at the December meeting ahead of the final report in January.
2. The Chair reported on her activities since the Board last met, noting thanks to Professor Mairi Spowage for attending the Government Statistical Service (GSS) Conference to co-lead a session on the challenges faced by colleagues within the GSS and for participating in a panel discussion with Ed Humpherson on the benefits of the refreshed Code of Practice for Statistics. The Chair would be joining Darren Tierney for a visit by the Minister Josh Simmons on 1 December to the Newport office. The first meeting of the Population Statistics System Committee had been held on 25 November.

5. Report from the Permanent Secretary [SA(25)60]

1. Darren Tierney provided the Board with an overview of activity and issues since the last meeting highlighting the following:
   1. the importance of prioritisation given the efficiency target for departments announced as part of the budget announcement on 26 November, which would impact ONS’s spending review settlement for 2028/29;
   2. the positive reference by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) in a recent report about their confidence in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and improving quality;
   3. the work ongoing to check publication processes were appropriate and would not lead to accidental publication of statistical releases following the OBR leak;
   4. changes made to ONS’s senior leadership structure with the appointment of Mary Gregory as Executive Director for Population Statistics and Census. Interviews were underway for the Director of Strategy and Change role and the post of Director General for Digital, Data and Technology had been advertised;
   5. ONS had published the outcomes of the work on prioritisation, stakeholder engagement was underway, and consideration was now being given to how the decisions would be implemented as part of the three year business planning process; and
   6. the approach to supporting and challenging the Senior Civil Service cadre on the work around culture, behaviours and trust.
2. Members discussed the update and highlighted the importance of effective risk management to the delivery of ONS recovery plans. This was in the context of challenges reported in papers to this meeting (discussed later) with a high number of red RAG status milestones reported. It was noted that the refreshed executive governance framework would also be a key part in providing oversight and assurance on delivery of recovery plans.
3. With regard to the outline plan for the technology strategy members noted the importance of presenting a balanced view of the potential for Artificial Intelligence (AI). Members noted the scale of the challenge to overhaul technology (and the associated process redesign and upskilling needed) and asked that an assessment of the strategy by the Director General for Digital, Data and Technology took place once in post. The Director of Strategy when in post would be able to provide a view of integrated delivery across the organisation. It was noted that the proposals to develop reproducible analytical pipelines linked to the work on developing the role of statisticians to empower them to develop the skills needed.

6. Report from the National Statistician [SA(25)61]

1. Emma Rourke provided the Board with an overview of activity and issues since the last meeting highlighting the following:
   1. on 18 November Emma Rourke had presented at the inaugural HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Data Analysts Conference, which was an opportunity to encourage and enhance multidisciplinary working through the Analysis Function. The discussion had also covered the opportunities, risks and limitations to the use of AI;
   2. Emma had met the newly appointed Chief Statistician to the United States, Mark Calabria to discuss opportunities for collaboration;
   3. meetings had been held with Analysis Function leaders to consider the governance and purpose of the function; and
   4. the work ongoing around data standards by the Department for Science Innovation and Technology. Discussions were ongoing with them regarding the National Data Library including the work by ONS on harmonised data standards.
2. Members discussed the update, which demonstrated the breadth of the work by the National Statistician, including the opportunity for the National Statistician role to consider how government departments resolve data sharing issues. As part of the discussion with HMRC, Emma had encouraged them to be more visible on their work around data and approach to managing risks around data sharing.
3. The Board welcomed the update noting that it demonstrated the value of the role of the National Statistician delivering across the statistical system.

7. Report from the Chair of Audit and Risk Assurance

1. The Chair reported on the work of the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee which had last met on 13 November.
2. The Committee had considered:
   1. the financial position of the organisation;
   2. the strategic risk profile, which still has half of the risks reporting outside of appetite;
   3. the work by the Risk and Assurance team on first and second line assurance across the organisation;
   4. a risk deep dive on cyber security;
   5. an update on the digital delivery framework, which would underpin legacy transformation;
   6. a report on the implementation of audit actions in response to the data governance audit;
   7. delivery of the Internal Audit Plan 2025/26; and
   8. the mid-year fraud report.
3. A separate session for members was scheduled in January 2026 on legacy and technology architecture.

8. Report from the Chair of Population Statistics System Committee

1. The Chair reported on the inaugural meeting of the Population Statistics System Committee which had met on 25 November. She welcomed the challenge that the members would bring, both individually and collectively.
2. Mary Gregory and Jason Zawadzki had presented an overview of the approach to population and migration statistics; and the governance and decision making that would underpin census preparations. The Committee had considered the ongoing Census 2031 topic consultation and the stakeholder engagement activity to support the consultation. The consultation had launched on 28 October and would close on 4 February 2026.
3. At the next meeting, a timeline of decision making for Census 2031 which would underpin the forward agenda and set out decision points for this Board.

9. Report from the Director General for Regulation [SA(25)62]

1. Ed Humpherson provided an overview of regulatory activities since the last meeting, highlighting the publication of OSR’s strategy on 26 November, which set out its priorities for the next three years, focused on strengthening trust and confidence in official statistics.
2. Following errors with some HMRC statistics that impacted on ONS’ work, OSR would be undertaking a review of how HMRC complies with the Code of Practice. Following the launch of the refreshed Code of Practice OSR were considering holding an event for data suppliers to reinforce the importance of ensuring the quality data in their role as suppliers.
3. Ed Humpherson had presented at a number of events during this period to underpin the launch of the Code of Practice including the keynote speech at the GSS Conference; and the keynote speech at the ISI World Statistics Conference on how official statistics producers need to embrace vulnerability in a time of crisis.
4. OSR had taken a collaborative approach to its prioritisation process working with Heads of Profession across the GSS.

10. Communications Update

1. Peter Barron and Sarah Moore reported on recent media coverage of ONS since the last meeting, highlighting the proactive approach being taken by the Communications team. Media coverage in October overall had been more balanced. The Census Topic Consultation had been launched and ONS’s prioritisation announcement had received positive coverage. The coverage of the error impacting public sector finances early October had noted that HMRC data had been the cause of the error.

11. Memorandum of Understanding

1. The Chair noted the discussion at the last Board meeting which had helped inform the ongoing work on the development of the Memorandum of Understanding on the division of roles between the National Statistician and ONS Permanent Secretary. Following the October Board meeting the Chair had met Emma Rourke and Darren Tierney to progress the work further with a focus on resourcing for the National Statistician’s office. Lucinda Eggleton, Director of Health and International, would be undertaking further work with Henry Watson on the structure and resourcing for the National Statistician’s Office, with the potential for changes.

12. TLFS/LFS [SA(25)63]

1. Alex Lambert and Liz McKeown introduced a paper which provided an update on the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) Programme.
2. The latest Labour Market transformation update on progress and plans had been published on 14 November 2025. The publication noted ONS’s aim to transition to the TLFS Survey for headline labour market statistics in November 2026, while also highlighting that this may extend into 2027, depending on readiness and assessment of quality requiring more data to be assessed. The readiness assessment was scheduled for July 2026.
3. The Board was informed that the TLFS programme continued to report Amber-Red given the data quality risks associated with the integration of Northern Ireland data, the collection of Standard Industrial Classification/Standard Occupational Classification data and decision to move the January 2026 TS11 milestone to April 2026. TS11 was intended to represent the final key improvements to the survey before six months of stable data collection. The milestone was reporting red and would not be met.
4. It was noted that the publication on the progress and plans for the labour market transformation on 14 November had set out that less data would now be available for the assessment in July as a result of TS11 changes, but did not pre-empt what the conclusion of the July assessment would be. The work around scenario planning for TLFS readiness was ongoing and would outline how the final transition decision would be agreed to provide clarity and accountability, including how to manage any trade-offs and conflicting perspectives amongst stakeholders. The outcome of this work would be reported to the Board in January 2026.
5. The Labour Force Survey Advisory Group chaired by Jonathan Portes had met and were interested in how to increase response rates more broadly and international comparisons. It was noted that James Benford had attended the International Monetary Fund conference in November and had the discussed the work by the IMF on the comparison of labour force surveys around the world.
6. Members discussed the update, noting their concerns at the extent of red and amber RAG status delivery reported in the paper. The Board wanted a realistic understanding of the level of concern they should have. The following points were made in discussion:
   1. to provide the required level of clarity needed the Board needed an overall view of the programme with a high level summary of the programme’s position in terms of delivery, specifically the areas rated red and amber. The Board also needed insight on ONS’s ability to address these based on the current resources and expertise in place. There was concern amongst members around slippage in delivery;
   2. in terms of scenario planning on key decision points, it was suggested that the team should explore detailed prioritisation within the programme to improve the current position;
   3. ONS clarified that the instances of red status reporting in the paper related to the work on scenario planning and was due to the timing of these scenarios. At specific points, criteria were marked red if the evidence was not available. It did not represent a fundamental lack of confidence by the ONS team. There were clear criteria in place to inform the decision on transition to the TLFS. At this point, the programme was not reporting any new risks or challenges;
   4. the impact of improved quality to the LFS on TLFS readiness, considering the range of users’ views on the level of assurance required to support the transition date. Work was ongoing to improve the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, which was important for policy making for the minimum wage but not central to the LFS/TLFS;
   5. in terms of financial planning the current position assumed that ONS would not be dual running the LFS and TLFS in 2028/29. Should the position change financial planning would need to be recalibrated considering value for money; and
   6. as part of both the updates by ONS on labour market transformation in March and November clarity had been provided that the timing of transition to the TLFS remains an evidence led decision as agreed at the March 2025 Board meeting.
7. The Board noted the Amber Red status of the programme and the change in timing for the TLFS Programme Board decision for implementation of the design changes to the TLFS as part of Transition State 11 by April 2026 – a shift from January 2026. The Board also noted that the first readiness assessment on the timing of transition to the TLFS scheduled in July 2026 would be an evidence led decision. Based on the work on scenario planning and this discussion the Board noted that the direction of travel for transition to the TLFS in November 2026 was not certain but that it may extend to 2027.

13. Strategic Risk Profile [SA(25)66]

1. Natalie Tarr and Kirsty Campion introduced a paper which provided an update on the Authority’s strategic risk profile following discussion by the Executive Committee and the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee.
2. The Board was reminded that since the last update, six out of eleven strategic risks had moved outside of risk appetite, which ExCo and ARAC had agreed was an accurate reflection of the current position. The key themes identified across the strategic risk profile included the need for continued prioritisation, which would form part of the business planning process. There was a need to ensure resources were in the right place with the right skills to deliver key priorities. Improvements in executive governance would underpin the assurance on the management of key risks and issues. The Risk and Assurance team had worked with Henry Watson on the rearticulation of the strategic people risk reflecting the cultural aspects of the risk. The overarching risk on ‘Trustworthiness, impact and independence’, had been reviewed with Darren Tierney who had taken responsibility as the risk owner.
3. Members discussed the update with a focus on the overarching risk on Trustworthiness, impact and independence to ensure the rearticulation covered the right areas, specifically with reference to independence. The controls in place were comprehensive but it was noted that the wording should be reconsidered to reflect the perception and reality of the risk around independence. It was noted that consideration would be useful more broadly around changes to public sentiment to the resilience of the Authority and public confidence in official statistics in the context of societal change in the future.
4. The Board noted the current position of the strategic risk profile and agreed that Darren Tierney would consider further the overarching strategic risk. This would form part of the workshops planned by the Risk and Assurance team with members to refresh the strategic risk profile from the perspective of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value.

14. Economic Statistics Plan [SA(25)64]

1. James Benford introduced a paper providing an update on the progress of the Economic Statistics Plan (ESP).
2. The Board heard that progress had been made including enhancements to governance arrangements. Resourcing had strengthened ESP delivery with over 90 new ESP posts successfully filled and the remaining vacancies were in the process of being filled. Further consideration might need to be given to redeployment. In terms of milestone delivery the timeline for the adoption of Statistical Business Register had slipped by a few months, with actions in place to address the slippage. Longer term risks included the impact of the Census on the rest of the organisation, and the work on international standards.
3. Members were provided with the draft reports scheduled for publication by ONS on 4 December. This would be the first quarterly update in response to OSR’s Report on Economic Statistics and also served the purpose of updating users on delivery progress. It was noted that a single integrated Surveys and Economic and Social Statistics plan would be adopted, bringing together the ESP, Survey Improvement and Enhancement Plan and business as usual into an integrated plan in March 2026.
4. Members discussed the update and the draft plans scheduled for publication. The following points were made in discussion:
   1. consideration was needed on the level of detail required in the plans scheduled for publication. Members welcomed the transparency of reporting in terms of delivery against the ESP and the Survey Improvement Enhancement Plan but noted that an executive summary for the overview document would be important in drawing out the key points;
   2. streamlining delivery of ESP, SIEP and business as usual into an integrated plan of agreed priorities from March 2026 would underpin delivery and would also help management of the risk profile including alignment with strategic risks;
   3. the three year business planning process would also enhance ESP delivery in helping to provide clarity on dependencies on the enabling functions and competing priorities; and
   4. the organisational change bringing end to end statistical production within ESEG would ensure a joined up approach to business planning and reduce the risk of silo working.
5. The Board welcomed the approach to a joined up plan and noted that resourcing remained a significant risk to delivery and in the longer term the risk posed by the census.

15. GSS Vision [SA(25)67]

1. Jane Naylor introduced a paper which provided an update on the progress made implementing the GSS Vision, ‘Strength in Numbers’. The last Board discussion in July 2025 highlighted the need to focus on a small number of key priorities. The GSS Vision Metrics dashboard provided a visual update of progress against agreed actions for each of the four pillars of the vision.
2. The Board heard that the dashboard had provided a useful basis for tracking delivery and had been used for various sessions with Heads of Profession. The GSS Conference on 4 November had been successful and included a session led by the Chair and Professor Mairi Spowage discussing challenges for colleagues across the GSS.
3. Members discussed the update. The Chair noted that the GSS Conference had provided the opportunity to engage with GSS colleagues discussing challenges for colleagues working across the GSS and the challenges and opportunities on the approach to AI. A realistic position on the approach to AI was needed rather than polarised viewpoints. On governance work was ongoing on the description of roles and responsibilities including the National Statistician. Earlier in the meeting there had been a discussion on the role of statisticians in relation to changes in technology. Members noted the value in considering how the skills profile of the GSS evolve including the development of statistical leaders. With regard to data sharing the potential for senior sponsorship and implications of the closure of the Integrated Data Service was a key area of focus to establish other mechanisms for joining up to address the cultural and legal barriers to data sharing.
4. The Board noted the update and endorsed the three key strategic priorities in principle for future focus: Embracing modern approaches and techniques; GSS leadership and governance; and inspiring the next generation of future statistician.

16. Any other business

1. The Authority Board would next meet on 18 December 2025.