Next meeting: 30 January 2025, London Boardroom

Members present

• Sir Robert Chote (Chair)
• Dr Jacob Abboud
• Professor Sir John Aston
• Professor Sir Ian Diamond
• Ed Humpherson
• Emma Rourke
• Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
• Penny Young

Other attendees

• Professor David Hand (for item 8)
• Professor Denise Lievesley (for item 8)
• Joe Moore (for items 8 and 9)
• Sarah Moore
• Emma Rourke (for item 8)
• Ruth Studley (for item 8)
• Tom Taylor
• Ross Tivey (for items 8 and 9)
• Neil Townsend (for item 8)

Secretariat

• Tom Marsh
• Sarah Cobden

Apologies

• Professor Dame Carol Propper
• Mike Keoghan

1. Apologies

1. Apologies were noted from Professor Dame Carol Propper and Mike Keoghan.

2. Declarations of Interest

1. There were no new declarations of interest.

3. Minutes and matters arising from previous meetings

1. The minutes of the previous meeting held on 31 October were approved subject to a minor amendment.

4. Report from the Authority Chair [SA(24)60]

1. Non-Executive Directors (NEDs) had met before the meeting and had discussed topics including the recruitment process for NEDs and the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS).
2. The Chair reported on his recent activities since the Board last met:
   1. progress of the NED recruitment with interviews scheduled early December;
   2. on 12 November Sir Robert had attended a regulator’s roundtable hosted by the Electoral Commission regarding the general election;
   3. Sir Robert had met with Professor Jonathan Portes, Chair of the National Statistician’s Labour Force Group; and separately with Professor Graeme Roy, Chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission to discuss a range of statistical issues including the labour market;
   4. on 12 November Sir Robert, Penny Young and Professor Sir John Aston had attended a demonstration of the ONS prototype website;
   5. on 26 November Sir Robert alongside Professor Sir Ian Diamond and Ed Humpherson had met Simon Hoare, Chair of Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee (PACAC); and
   6. Sir Robert had met a delegation from the Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi as part of a visit to the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

5. Report from the Chief Executive [SA(24)61]

1. Sir Ian provided the Board with an overview of activity and issues since the last meeting, highlighting the following:
   1. the publication of long-term international migration statistics that morning, accompanied by live media appearances by Mary Gregory to explain the latest estimates;
   2. the recent media coverage of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and TLFS. The Governor of the Bank of England had given evidence to the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on 19 November. The TSC had followed up with a request for information from ONS on LFS/TLFS by 4 December, which provided an opportunity to outline the programme of improvements;
   3. a review of the Integrated Data Service (IDS) being led by Cabinet Office, supported by HM Treasury (HMT) and the Department of Science Innovation and Technology (DSIT). ONS’s response would be published on the website.
   4. progress by ONS working with the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) in relation to the long-standing issue of delays to coronial data associated with drug related deaths;
   5. the development work by ONS teams on metrics and statistics for the government’s Priorities for Change;
   6. ONS had initiated a cross-government innovation spring on household finances;
   7. on 8 November Sir Ian had presented at the launch of the Sudlow Review: Uniting the UK’s Health Data. The review highlighted the importance of an appropriate linked data infrastructure, such as the IDS;
   8. the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) had written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer setting out their concern that tuition fees in England are to be uprated by RPIX, (Retail Price Index excluding mortgage interest payment);
   9. Sir Ian had convened a meeting with National Statisticians from Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States of America regarding SNA25; and
   10. the ongoing work in preparation for phase two of the Spending Review 2025. The commission from HMT had not yet been received; and
   11. the StatsUserNet platform was being moved to a new platform in 2025. Options for an archive for the current platform were being explored.
2. Board members discussed the update, and noted the progress made by ONS since the last meeting regarding delays to coronial data. Emma Rourke had met Jerome Glass, (MoJ General, Policy and Strategy), and a further meeting was scheduled in the coming weeks to progress further. ONS would continue to work in collaboration with MoJ to address this issue. It was noted that the Board had discussed this issue previously, specifically the increasing incidence of drug related deaths linked to synthetic opioids and the need to measure them accurately. There was a role for the Office for Statistics Regulation in considering the impact on excess deaths statistics.
3. The Board heard that the Executive Committee had considered the opportunity of the predicted surplus this financial year to fund activities such as survey investment. It was acknowledged that the forecast underspend at year end was partly due to the central mandate introduced by HM Government in early 2024/25, which had limited headcount across all departments. During this period resourcing controls were implemented to align staff numbers with the central mandate. Following the general election, the headcount cap was lifted and resourcing controls were removed. At the half year point the organisation was in the process of recovering from the centrally imposed headcount target early 2024/25. It was noted that recruitment processes had been streamlined, and work was ongoing to improve retention of specific skills. Additionally effective management of third-party expenditure contributed to the predicted surplus.
4. Business planning 2025/26 was progressing at pace being led by finance and the Senior Leadership Team across the organisation. Non-discretionary activities would focus on core work delivering on all conditions set out by HMT in the Spending Review letter. Members discussed the costing model noting that the UK Statistics Assembly scheduled on 22 January, the refresh of the strategy, and preparation for the spending review all provided opportunities to consider areas of focus for the organisation going forward. It was clarified that an end-to-end costing/resourcing process was being taken across all activities to ensure accuracy. The outcome of the work on business planning on discretionary and non-discretionary activities for 2025/26 would be provided for consideration by the Board at the January meeting.
5. Sir Ian reported on the high-level results of the 2024 People Survey noting that overall results were broadly similar to 2023. A more detailed update would be provided for the January meeting.

6. Report from the Director General of Regulation [SA(24)62]

1. Ed Humpherson provided an update on regulatory activity. The consultation for the Code of Practice for Statistics (CoP) had been launched on 23 October. The OSR were continuing to promote the consultation through a programme of stakeholder engagement, which had included a joint event with the RSS on 14 November; and a seminar for analysts on 26 November, with Chris Whitty as speaker. The key messages underpinning engagement included clearer communication with stronger support for analysts on intelligent transparency, a stronger emphasis on communication of statistics, and a clear set of principles. It was noted that the Code refresh was ongoing as part of the preparation and communication of the Assembly.
2. The Regulation Committee held on 7 November had considered OSR’s regulatory model going forward. The Committee had approved an assessment report on statistics about the workforce employed by adult social services departments in England. The report set out the requirements that Skills for Care would need to address for its statistics to become accredited official statistics. Other items included an update on a review of ONS UK Trade statistics with the view to future reaccreditation; and an update on the first stage of a systemic review on economic statistics produced by the ONS.

7. Audit and Risk Assurance Committee Report

1. Professor Sir John Aston had chaired the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee (ARAC), which had last met on 14 November.
2. The Committee had considered:
   1. the financial position of the organisation with assurance provided on plans to manage the projected surplus at year end;
   2. an update on the strategic risk profile with a focus on Strategic Risk three – Statistics Quality, which remained outside of risk appetite;
   3. a risk deep dive into legacy transformation with progress made against the plans presented to ARAC and the Board in May 2024;
   4. a risk deep dive into strategic resourcing and skills, the impact of the wider external context and underpinning metrics to provide assurance;
   5. delivery of the Internal Audit Plan 2024/25; and
   6. the mid-year fraud report.

8. Lievesley Review: UK Statistics Assembly [SA(24)63][SA(24)64]

1. Sir Robert welcomed Professor Denise Lievesley and Professor David Hand to the meeting. Sarah Moore introduced a paper which provided an update on plans for the UK Statistics Assembly. ONS were collaborating with the RSS supported by a delivery group with a wide range of external membership. The National Statistician’s Expert User Advisory Group (NSUEAC), chaired by Professor David Hand, had also been consulted. The Assembly was scheduled on 22 January and would be chaired by Professor Cathie Sudlow OBE. To shape the agenda and inform topic discussions on the day a call for contributions had been undertaken. The agenda comprised of a short introductory plenary session followed by 15 breakout group discussions across the day.
2. Professor Denise Lievesley noted thanks to Sarah Moore and Neil Townsend for their work in reaching this point, and to Professor David Hand for the role NSEUAC would play in producing the report. The assembly aimed to engage with a broad range of users to help them understand the challenges faced by the statistical system. Consideration was needed on achieving the right balance between expert users and passive users. Including intermediaries such as the Joseph Rowntree Foundation would help given their understanding of the needs of people who were not represented. The breadth of cross cutting issues was important. Professor Lievesley noted that a measure of success for the Assembly would be the extent to which participants gained a greater understanding of the statistical system, its pressures and whether they felt heard. Professor Lievesley noted that she would be organising a session at the International Statistics Institute conference in 2025 on what statistical offices can learn from reviews.
3. Professor David Hand noted the excellent work by the delivery group and outlined the approach and timeline by NSEUAC to producing the report. A draft report of the Assembly would be produced for the February NSEUAC meeting ahead of providing it for the February Board meeting, and before publication. Professor Hand highlighted an initiative by a New York University – GovLab – 100 questions initiative which could be useful.
4. Board members discussed the update. The following points were considered in discussion:
   1. production of the report as planned by Professor Hand and NSUEAC in a short time although challenging was the right approach;
   2. provision of an information pack for delegates in advance, which would include practical instructions, the agenda and how it was agreed, background on the statistical system – an infographic including some detail on expenditure across the statistical system;
   3. managing expectations ahead of the Assembly was important. A pre-recorded video outlining some of the challenges and how things could be done differently, as well as what needed to be accomplished was an option. This would help attendees understand that the focus was on the broader statistical system, not just ONS;
   4. the need to manage the day’s logistics efficiently, across the breadth of cross cutting discussions, enabling facilitators and chairs of discussion groups to provide feedback for the final plenary sessions. AI tools could help to summarise and capture questions;
   5. OSR were conducting research on effective methods to engage passive users. Gathering insight from subject matter experts on which statistics outside of their domain they regarded most useful, in order to avoid focusing exclusively on their own area;
   6. the final plenary session could include an international example of how they would address the future challenges;
   7. a potential discussion topic could include tools or methods for quickly accessing relevant data during a crisis. The Social and Behavioural Science for Emergencies Group, formed in 2022, identified social and behavioural evidence and data gaps for emergency preparedness. ONS has also collaborated with the National Situation Centre; and
   8. undertaking a specific engagement exercise with a younger population, perhaps schoolchildren similar to Model United Nations.
5. The Board noted thanks to Professor Denise Lievesley and Professor David Hand for their contributions towards the Assembly, and to Sarah Moore and her team for all of their work in partnership with the RSS. There was a plan in place to provide Professor Hand with the output of the Assembly very quickly after the event in order for a draft report to be produced for the February meeting of NSUEAC and the Board.
6. Joe Moore and Ross Tivey introduced an update on the progress made against all recommendations set out in the Lievesley Review. Good progress was being made, including as already discussed, the development of the first UK Statistics Assembly. The following formed the key highlights:
   1. Authority Board recruitment (Recommendation 10) – the Non-Executive Director recruitment process had resumed following a pause due to the general election.
   2. Cabinet Office Memorandum of Understanding (Recommendation 14) – discussions had begun with Cabinet Office regarding potential updates.
   3. Eurostat and international engagement (Recommendation13) was complete following Sir Ian’s signing of the Memorandum of Understanding with Eurostat.
   4. Framework for ad-hoc commissions (Recommendation 18) was complete following the introduction of the new framework for analytical outputs overseen by the ONS Strategic Outputs Committee.
   5. National Statistician’s Advisory Groups (Recommendation 11) – the Secretariat were working in collaboration with all advisory groups leads, to implement changes including a new process for appointments, which would be used for the forthcoming recruitment for the Chair of the Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Consumer Prices.
   6. Separation of OSR from ONS (Recommendation 3) – Professor Lievesley noted praise for OSR’s statement, which was published on 24 October on the operational separation between ONS and OSR.
7. Board members noted the progress made and highlighted that Recommendation 9 relating to communications should reference the communication of understanding of uncertainty as an integral part of the new website. It was noted that this would be covered by the application of the new Code of Practice for Statistics to the new website.

9. Authority Strategy Refresh [SA(24)65]

1. Joe Moore and Ross Tivey introduced a paper which outlined the proposed approach for refreshing the Authority strategy. The Authority’s current strategy, Statistics for the Public Good, would conclude at the end of July 2025.
2. The Board heard about the progress against the current strategy and the proposed approach to developing the next. A collaborative approach would be taken across the statistical system. Engagement activities in the coming months would include a dedicated session for the Board; a consultation with colleagues across the Authority, ONS, OSR and the Government Statistical Service during December and January, external consultation including the Statistics Assembly and targeted engagement with key stakeholders such as Chief Statisticians across the Devolved Governments, the RSS and departmental permanent secretaries. Focus Groups would be undertaken by the ONS social research network. Recent reviews including the Lievesley Review, the PACAC report on Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base and OSR’s State of the Statistical System Review would help inform the context and stakeholder views. Alongside the strategy development the Policy Unit would work closely with colleagues across the Authority, ONS and OSR to ensure alignment with the spending review and business planning in terms of strategic priorities.
3. Board members discussed the proposal. The following points were considered in discussion:
   1. consideration on whether to retain the core principles: Ambitious, Radical, Inclusive and Sustainable for the next iteration of the strategy, or take a more prosaic approach setting out how the organisation would focus on core delivery of the essentials;
   2. support for not pivoting to a new direction and acknowledging that statistics for the public good is an effective way of delivering. A refreshed strategy that builds on the achievements; and
   3. ahead of the consultation process to help respondents – the value in setting out the contextual factors, external environment and how the statistical system should be set up in a way to respond and exploit the opportunities and address the challenges.
4. The Board agreed the approach to refreshing the next iteration of the Authority’s strategy acknowledging that statistics for the public good remained the aim. The views of the Assembly would also be a valuable input.

10. Future of Population and Migration Statistics [SA(24)66]

1. As this area of work is policy in development, the minute from this item will be published upon completion.

11. Any other business

1. Sir Robert paid warm tribute to Professor Sir John Aston, as this was his last meeting with his term ending on 31 December 2024. Sir John had been a highly valued member of the Board as a Non-Executive Director and a member of the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee. On behalf of the Board Sir Robert thanked Sir John for his excellent contributions during the course of his tenure and wished him well in his role as President of the RSS. Sir Ian also paid tribute to Sir John on behalf of the ONS.
2. The Board would next meet on Thursday 30 January.