Next meeting: 27 June 2024, London Boardroom

Members present

• Sir Robert Chote (Chair)
• Dr Jacob Abboud
• Professor Sir John Aston
• Professor Sir Ian Diamond
• Nora Nanayakkara
• Sian Jones
• Professor Dame Carol Propper
• Penny Young

Also in attendance

• Pete Benton (for items 9 and 10)
• Sally Jones
• Rob Kent-Smith
• Simon Sandford-Taylor (for item 11)
• Tom Taylor
• Ross Tivey (for item 8)
• Jason Zawadzki (for items 9 and 11)

Apologies

• Ed Humpherson
• Alison Pritchard
• Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter

1. Apologies

1. Apologies were noted from Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Ed Humpherson and Alison Pritchard.

2. Declarations of Interest

1. Sir Robert Chote informed the meeting that he would be taking up the position as the next President of Trinity College Oxford, with effect from 1 September 2025. It was noted that the role posed no conflict, and had been held by previous Chairs of the Authority Board.

3. Minutes and matters arising from previous meetings

1. The minutes of the previous meeting held on 25 April were agreed.

4. Report from the Authority Chair [SA(24)21]

1. Non-Executive Directors (NEDs) had met before the meeting. They had discussed topics including the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) and Labour Force Survey (LFS), and the NED recruitment.
2. The Chair paid warm tribute to Sian Jones, as this was her last meeting with her term ending on 1 July 2024. Sian had been a highly valued member of the Board as a Non-Executive Director and led the Board as Interim Chair ahead of Sir Robert Chote’s appointment. As part of the NED programme of activities Sian had met with business areas across the organisation on a range of topic areas, including Census 2021, legacy transformation, Integrated Data Service and the Future of Population and Migration Statistics. Sian was also a member of the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee. Sian had provided excellent support for the organisation, always providing the right level of oversight, scrutiny and challenge. Professor Sir Ian Diamond paid tribute to Sian on behalf of ONS, noting that it had also been his privilege to work alongside her on the Board.
3. The Chair reported on his recent activities since the Board last met.
   1. on 21 May Sir Robert had met the new Chair of Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee (PACAC), Dame Jackie Doyle-Price MP; and
   2. on 22 May Sir Robert, alongside Professor Denise Lievesley, had attended a meeting at the Royal Statistical Society on the Lievesley Review. Sir Robert and Professor Lievesley had also attended a meeting of stakeholders chaired by Sir Charlie Bean to discuss the review.
4. Following the announcement of the General Election and the commencement of the pre-election period, the timeline for the NED recruitment had been paused, and the Authority’s annual scrutiny session before PACAC on 4 June had been postponed. The response to PACAC’s report on Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base, published on 24 May, had also been delayed due to the pre-election period.
5. Sir Robert would be writing publicly to the leaders of UK political parties reminding them of their responsibilities to use statistics appropriately and transparently during the general election campaign.

5. Report from the Chief Executive [SA(24)22]

1. Sir Ian provided the Board with an overview of activity and issues since the last meeting highlighting the following:
   1. the implementation of election planning being led by the National Statistician’s Private Office;
   2. the year-end pre audit financial position, which was forecast to be a small under expenditure. Sir Ian noted thanks to Tom Taylor, Director of Finance, Planning and Performance, and the finance team;
   3. on 14 May Sir Ian had presented at an Awayday at the Darlington Economic Campus, alongside Beth Russell (HM Treasury), Pauline Crellin (Department for Business and Trade) and Mike Keoghan;
   4. media coverage regarding comments made by ONS’s Chief Economist in relation to the publication of the Gross Domestic Product first quarterly estimate on 10 May;
   5. the publication of a range of statistical outputs including inflation statistics on 22 May, and migration statistics on 23 May;
   6. an article by the Financial Times claiming that a fifth of the workforce had left ONS in the last year, according to data obtained by a Freedom of Information (FoI) request. Sir Ian clarified that the majority had been in administrative roles in support of the Census 2021;
   7. industrial action was ongoing with Public and Commercial Service Union (PCS) members taking part in action short of a strike in relation to hybrid working;
   8. the report by the PACAC – Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base published on 24 May, highlighted the need to resolve the longstanding issues around data sharing and aligned to the work by ONS to transform the future of population and migration statistics, and the recommendation in the Lievesley Review. The report commended the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) for its work on intelligent transparency and recommended that it publish an annual report card on departments’ compliance with its guidance. It also highlighted a mismatch between the ambitious vision of the Analysis Function and the limited funding made available to deliver the vision;
   9. Sir Ian and Sir Robert had met colleagues at No 10 and the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities regarding coherence of UK wide data;
2. Members discussed the update highlighting the low response rate for the Wealth and Asset Survey and associated quality risks. It was noted that this was in part linked to the dual running of the TLFS and LFS. Sir Ian confirmed that the Senior Leadership Team were currently working through the impact of any further period of extended dual running of the TLFS/LFS, which at this point, had not been agreed.
3. With regard to the publication of the Future of Population and Migration Statistics Recommendation it was noted that the publication date was subject to further engagement with stakeholders and Ministers. The pre-election period would also inform the publication date.
4. The Board noted the update. It was agreed that a paper on the Business Survey Strategy would be scheduled for a future meeting.

6. Report from the Director General of Regulation [SA(24)23]

1. Rob Kent-Smith provided an update on regulation activity since the last meeting, highlighting that following the announcement of the General Election OSR had issued letters to Permanent Secretaries regarding intelligent transparency in the use of statistics, and the need to ensure equality of access to data particularly during the pre-election period.
2. OSR had published an election page, which included a series of topic based statements designed to support the public when hearing statistics used in public debate. Resourcing plans were in place to deal with any increased activity. The volume of casework had not yet increased as a result of the election. Casework topics since the last meeting included the budget for social care, casualty statistics produced by the Gaza Ministry of Health and the reference by the ONS Chief Economist as part of the GDP release on 10 May.
3. Following the publication of PACAC’s Report Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base, OSR were considering the recommendation that they publish an annual report card on departments’ compliance with OSR’s guidance on Intelligence Transparency.

7. Report from the Chair of the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee

1. The Chair reported on the work of the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee which had last met on 16 May.
2. The Committee had considered:
   1. the pre audit financial position at year end 2023/24 with a small under expenditure;
   2. the breach of Cabinet Office controls regarding the contract for the Crime Survey for England and Wales;
   3. an update on the strategic risk profile with a focus on risks outside of risk appetite;
   4. legacy and website transformation plans to mitigate risks;
   5. delivery of the full Internal Audit Plan 2023/24 and discussion of the Internal Audit Contract Management Report; and
   6. the Annual Fraud Report 2023/24;
3. Board members discussed the Cabinet Office breach of commercial controls regarding the contract for the Crime Survey. It was noted that the Cabinet Office had withheld its approval on the basis it would not approve retrospective business cases. The ONS Executive Committee had taken a risk based decision in October 2023 based on value for money, balancing the regulatory position with the contract to ensure the delivery of the Crime Survey from April 2024. The Comptroller and Auditor General would make the final decision on whether the breach would lead to a regularity qualification.

8. Lievesley Review – Authority Response [SA(24)24]

1. Tom Taylor and Ross Tivey introduced a paper which provided the Board with the draft response to the Lievesley Review of the UK Statistics Authority. Following the announcement of the general election the response would be published in July after the pre-election period.
2. Board members discussed the draft response. The following points were made in discussion:
   1. the response to recommendation two in relation to a Director General (DG) for Methodology should emphasise that resolving methodology questions was core to ONS’s role with ONS continuing to draw on international experts as methodology advisors. The Authority Board reiterated that Sir Ian as Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority is responsible for decisions relating to the senior leadership team;
   2. the need to include further detail at the start reflecting that ONS and OSR would in time provide additional detail on the implementation of recommendations as work progressed; and
   3. with regard to the Statistical Assembly there was support for the proposed way forward with Sarah Moore working in collaboration with the Royal Statistical Society. It was noted that the Assembly would have an advisory role and would not replace the Authority Board as the formal decision making body. The National Statistician’s Expert User Advisory Group would assist the Board by distilling the outcomes of the Assembly into a short report for the Board. It was agreed that following the first Assembly consideration would be given to the effectiveness of this approach.
3. The Board noted the draft response. It was agreed that the final draft response would be circulated to the Board ahead of publication.

9. ARIES Programme and Transformed Labour Force Survey [SA(24)25]

1. Jason Zawadzki and Pete Benton introduced a paper which provided an update on the Ambitious, Radical and Inclusive Economic Statistics (ARIES) programme.
2. The Board heard that over the last quarter there had been improvements in the delivery confidence assessments for Public Sector Transformation, Legacy Ingres reduction and Business Statistics transformation. A number of key milestones had been met with the publication of used car and rents data into headline consumer price statistics; publication of Research and Development expenditure by the UK Government  in April; and new local authority level estimates of education output for inclusion in Regional Accounts.
3. Board members discussed progress update in relation to the non TLFS/LFS aspects of the programme in the first instance. Members highlighted that the management information provided showed some slippage. It was clarified that while there had been some slippage the delays were minor and would not impact on the delivery of key milestones.
4. Sir Ian and Pete Benton updated the Board on progress and challenges regarding the TLFS/LFS. Additional information had been provided as part of the Chief Executive’s Report on this topic, including the May 2024 Monetary Policy Report, additional feedback from the Bank of England (BoE) to Mike Keoghan and a summary of the work undertaken by Professors Chambers and Brown to date to review the methodology underpinning the TLFS.
5. Sir Ian provided the background to the work on the transformation of the LFS. The original plan had been to modernise labour force statistics as the LFS had grown organically over a number of years. The plan at that point was the use of administrative data alongside a modern online labour force survey. As a result of the pandemic the vision had slightly moved away from the original concept. With regard to dual running, the expectation at that point was that two quarters would be sufficient.
6. Sir Ian subsequently commissioned an external review to provide strong methodological input with Pete Benton working with colleagues in Economic Statistics Group. It was noted that in parallel to the external review feedback from the BoE was received. Sir Ian noted that that latest results (unpublished at the time of the meeting) were promising and that the recent meeting with the BoE had been positive. A decision had not yet been reached by the Executive on the period of dual running for the TLFS/LFS.
7. Pete Benton reported on the status of the transition from the LFS to the TLFS highlighting that further data was needed to provide the evidence base to ensure a smooth transition to the TLFS. A systematic assessment of ONS’s readiness was being undertaken to manage the transition, which would bring together the review by Professors Chambers and Brown, working in partnership with expert users including the BoE and HM Treasury.
8. The Board heard that the external review by Professors Chamber and Brown had noted that the original concept of the TLFS remained sensible. They advised a minimum of four quarters stable parallel running was needed to model any differences in seasonal behaviour. It was noted that the whole suite of labour market outputs, such as quarterly flows, had not yet been produced.
9. Board members discussed the progress of the TLFS/LFS and noted thanks to Sir Ian for providing the additional information. The following points were made in discussion:
   1. the value and importance of the external review by Professors Chambers and Brown in providing assurance both internally and for the Board;
   2. given the need to be able to make a robust assessment of the differences between the TLFS and LFS a significant period of dual running appeared to be the most likely option going forward. This aligned with the view by Professors Chambers and Brown and also the view of the BoE, a key stakeholder of labour market statistics. In addition there was a reputational risk as the LFS had lost its National Statistics status;
   3. with regard to OSR’s regulatory role it was noted that OSR were in discussion with ONS regarding the transformation of the TLFS/LFS to ensure that they were receiving the right levels of assurance throughout, which included timing for accreditation;
   4. the frequency of reporting progress of delivery of the TLFS, which had up until this point formed part of the quarterly ARIES programme update;
   5. given the LFS may be in operation for an extended period of time, the weighting of the LFS was important. ONS would need to communicate clearly with users and key stakeholders in addressing their concerns;
   6. Board members would need to understand how ONS were preforming against agreed quality criteria as agreed by the Programme Board;
   7. clarity of communication with users going forward would be critical to ensure they were aware in advance of progress and any delays. It would be important for users and stakeholders to understand what would be available from administrative data and what would be lost; and
   8. the financial implication of any further period of dual running was currently being calculated including the opportunity to make any savings.
10. The Board noted the update. It was agreed that the TLFS/LFS would be a standing agenda item going forward. Future reporting needed to be with candour, setting out plans, challenges, risks to delivery, and how they were being mitigated. The Board noted that there had been challenges in reaching this point, which had not been apparent in previous reporting. As part of future reporting to the Board a summary of how the organisation reached this point would be provided as part of lessons learned.

10. Integrated Date Service [SA(24)26]

1. Pete Benton introduced a paper which provided update on the progress of delivery of the Integrated Data Service. Pete Benton had taken on the role as Senior Responsible Owner.
2. The Board heard that as the programme entered its final year before transitioning to live service the need to significantly grow the service and speed up the process for data provision, linkage and analysis were the key areas of focus. The programme’s senior leadership team had agreed key factors that defined the success of the programme: high value linked datasets available for analysis; rapid and effective access for analysts; streamlined accreditation process; a mature reference data management framework; barriers to data sharing unblocked; strong privacy protection; appropriate security for linked data; and strong user confidence and satisfaction.
3. Board members discussed the update. The following points were considered in discussion:
   1. the need to realise the vision of the IDS, growing the service and increasing the number of users at pace;
   2. clarity on the definition of complete for the programme after which the service would continue to expand;
   3. delivery progress of the transition of the Secure Research Service into the IDS; and
   4. addressing the barriers to data sharing across government, as highlighted by the Lievesley Review, including the issue of data owners not wanting to lose control of the narrative of their data.
4. The Board noted the update. Future reporting would include a refreshed dashboard setting out the delivery and maturity of the programme against the key success factors.

11. Legacy Transformation including Website Plan [SA(24)27]

1. Simon Sandford-Taylor introduced a paper, which set out the plans in place to mitigate the risks around legacy and website transformation, as a result of a cross organisational approach and support. At its meeting on 16 May the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee had discussed and been assured by these plans.
2. Board members discussed the approach being taken, specifically the work on the website to date, which had seen a reduction in the number of errors, and the longer term transformation.
3. The Board noted the update.

12. Any other business

1. The Board would next meet on Thursday 27 June.