Methodological Assurance Review Panel annual report: 2025 to 2026
This report covers the work of the Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP) from the 1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026. Sir Bernard Silverman remained as the chair, with panel members Professor Ana Basiri, Dr Oliver Duke-Williams, Professor Nik Lomax and Professor Natalie Shlomo in place for the full year. Carl Emmerson stepped down on 31 October 2025, and Jakob Schneebacher joined the panel on 1 February 2026 following external advertisement and recruitment process.
In this period the panel met 5 times, and considered additional papers by correspondence. In the reporting period, MARP considered 14 papers and other detailed items in total. The role of MARP is to formally address requests from the National Statistician. Whilst the National Statistician post remains vacant, the panel provides advice to Mary Gregory and James Benford from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Support to the ONS leadership continues, fulfilling the established terms of reference.
Papers considered by the panel include Research on producing admin-based estimates of households for local authorities in England and Wales, development of quality methods to identify and measure error in the demographic index, producing disability estimates using predictive modelling and administrative data, and Geospatial machine learning for intercensal small-area population estimates.
Following the June 2025 commission of a mandatory questionnaire-based census in 2031, the panel continued to consider papers and items from ONS submitted in this area, with an on-going update on Census and Population Statistics becoming a standing item for the panel’s meetings. Papers considered in this area include Evaluation Criteria for Census 2031 Topics, a framework for identification and prioritisation of key population groups, and a paper on the Census question testing framework.
In addition to formal papers, the panel considered items, updates and discovery work on matters seeking early assurance and review ahead of further development and full paper publication. Alongside this report, the members’ information and declarations of interest have been updated on the Authority website.
The panel continues to examine and comment on every item brought by ONS, both in preparation ahead of meetings, and at meetings themselves, making recommendations for the ONS and, when necessary, giving actions for items to be brought back or further updates to be given to the panel. For a full list of papers and topics assessed during this period, and the minutes covering all items short of a paper, please visit the MARP minutes and MARP papers pages.
MARP has now set up a structure of subgroups, in some cases for specific tasks, and in others for longer-term specialist issues. In most cases, the subgroups are given delegated authority to report directly to ONS, with the main panel given regular updates on the work of the subgroups. The longer-term subgroups are chaired by a member of the main panel.
The Labour Market Statistics subgroup, following key publications in the previous period, provided review for ONS papers and developments via correspondence rather than via meetings. Professor Ray Chambers and Professor James Brown continued to provide advice, with the main panel updated on progress for the Labour Force Survey and Transformed Labour Force Survey, including a dedicated meeting in July 2026, following which the panel published a statement.
Following ONS’s announcement that the Dynamic Population Model would not be adopted as official statistics, the Dynamic Population Model subgroup’s scope was reviewed and it was renamed the Population Statistics Review Panel, supported by updated Terms of Reference (published 13th August 2026).
The panel met three times since the last annual report (October 2025, March 2026, and June 2026), considering the future direction of population estimation research, lessons learned from the Dynamic Population Model (DPM), and alternative methodological approaches. Discussions covered:
- international migration coherence between ABPEs and LTIM estimates
- sensitivity analysis, quality assurance and technical documentation for the DPM
- Alternative methods for population estimates
The panel emphasised the importance of transparency, robust evaluation criteria, UK-wide coherence, clear documentation and continued engagement as ONS refines its approach to population estimation.
Membership remains unchanged. The chair is Professor Ana Basiri and the other members are Dr Fred Piel, Professor Jon Forster, Professor George Ploubidis and Professor Arkadiusz Wiśniowski.
Minutes for these meetings are available on the Authority website.
The Migration Statistics subgroup continued with its membership unchanged. The chair is Professor Nik Lomax and the other members are Dr Marie McAuliffe, Professor Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Professor Jakub Bijak and Georgina Sturge.
Over the year, the subgroup advised on improvements to UK international migration statistics, with a focus on strengthening coherence, transparency and the use of administrative data. Two meetings were held. The first meeting held in October’25 provided assurance for methods that were subsequently implemented. New areas of work were discussed at the next meeting in July’26, including methods for visa overstayers, people with Indefinite Leave to Remain and the development of applying a cumulative length of stay method for all migration estimates, which may include the creation of a migration data asset.
In particular, the panel requested to see further validation of the methods developed for those with indefinite leave.
Minutes for these subgroup meetings are available on the Authority website.
Overall, the panel is satisfied that ONS has taken account of recommendations, guidance and challenge, both from the main panel and from the subgroups, and that future planning reflects the needs of the panel and its subgroups.
At the end of the reporting year, the decision was taken in principle to institute two further subgroups of MARP, to cover Time Series and Qualitative Methods. These groups will be constituted and their terms of reference refined in the last part of 2026. MARP welcomes the expansion and evolution of its scope in this way, and will be considering how to effectively continue to address strategic issues while delegating detailed consideration to subgroups.
Sir Bernard Silverman
8 October 2026