UK Statistical System Code of Practice Office for Statistics Regulation
UK Statistics AuthorityParliamentary Committee SubmissionsScottish Parliament

Office for National Statistics follow-up written evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s COVID-19 Recovery Committee inquiry, Road to recovery: impact of the pandemic on the Scottish labour market

Dear Ms Brown,

Thank you for inviting me to give evidence for the Committee’s inquiry, Road to recovery: impact of the pandemic on the Scottish labour market. During that session, I agreed to follow-up with the Committee with the latest data detailing international comparisons of inactivity rates in Scotland.

Internationally comparisons are generally made based on 15- to 64-year-olds, rather than 16- to 64-year-olds as used in the UK. In the UK, all 15-year-olds are considered to be economically inactive. They are also often presented as participation rates, rather than economic inactivity rates, whereby economic inactivity is the inverse of participation. Although we do not calculate a rate for Scotland on a 15- to 64-year-old basis, the 16- to 64-year-old economic inactivity rate for Scotland has averaged around 1 percentage point above the UK rate over the last five years.

Based on information held by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for 2021, international economic inactivity rates ranged between 46% in India and 15% in Iceland. Across the OECD, the average economic inactivity rate was 28%, with the European Union at 26% and G7 countries averaging 25%. The UK rate of 22% was near the lower quartile mark, just below Lithuania and Malta, and just above Germany and Finland. Only Japan, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, Netherlands, and Iceland have rates 20% or lower.

The latest comparison figures for Labour force participation, along with a number of other key measures, are available from the OECD Data website.

Kind regards,

David Freeman

Deputy Director for Labour Market and Household Statistics

Office for National Statistics oral evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Covid-19 Recovery Committee’s inquiry on the road to recovery: impact of the pandemic on the Scottish labour market

On Thursday 3 November, David Freeman, Head of Labour Market and Households, Office for National Statistics gave evidence to the COVID-19 Recovery Committee in Scottish Parliament for its inquiry, ‘Road to Recovery: impact of the pandemic on the Scottish labour market.’

A transcript of which has been published on the Scottish Parliament website.

 

 

Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s COVID-19 Recovery Committee’s inquiry on ‘Road to recovery: impact of the pandemic on the Scottish labour market’

Dear Ms Brown,

I write in response to the COVID-19 Recovery Committee’s call for evidence for the inquiry, Road to recovery: impact of the pandemic on the Scottish labour market.

This inquiry is of particular interest and relevance to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as we are responsible for producing employment and labour market statistics and analysis for the UK.

This written evidence submission provides analysis on some of the key factors driving changes in the Scottish labour market, such as the prevalence of long COVID and pre-existing health conditions. We have also examined the impact of the pandemic on different demographics within the labour market and provided an industry breakdown of recent trends

I hope this submission is useful for your inquiry. Please do not hesitate to let us know if we can provide anything further.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

Office for National Statistics written evidence: ‘Road to recovery: impact of the pandemic on the Scottish labour market’

1. What are the key factors driving increase in labour market activity?

  • In the decade to 2015, the inactivity rate in Scotland was broadly similar to that of England’. However, from 2016 onwards, Scotland’s inactivity rate has diverged slightly – slightly increasing while England’s fell – and is now similar to that of Wales, while Northern Ireland’s inactivity rate remains highest among the four nations.
  • In more recent periods, the Annual Population Survey (APS) illustrates that labour market inactivity in Scotland has increased by 35,000 to 808,000 when comparing the 12 months to March 2022 with 2019 levels (before the COVID-19 pandemic began). This makes up 18.6% of the total UK rise in inactivity over that period.
  • The APS also tells us that in 2021, Scotland experienced its highest inactivity rate since these records began in 2004, at 23.8%.
  • Long-term sickness is the main reason for inactivity in Scotland (among those aged 16 to 64) and is the reason that has seen the largest increase since before the pandemic. The number of those reporting long-term sickness as the reason for inactivity has increased by 23,000 (to 240,000) in the 12 months to March 2022, compared with 2019 levels. However, increases in long-term sickness predate the pandemic, starting in 2019.
  • The increases in total levels of inactivity in Scotland (which grew by 4.5% in the latest period compared with the pre-pandemic period) and long-term sickness (which grew by 10.4%) grew at a faster rate than the increases seen for the UK (where it grew by 2.1% and 6.8%, respectively, over that period).
  • The number of those retiring increased by 11,000 (to 122,000) and the number of those temporary sick also increased by 4,000 (to 20,000) and are the second and third largest contributors to the rise in inactivity in the Scottish labour market. The respective increases of 9.9% and 21.8%, are greater than the rate of increases seen for those retiring and temporary sick in the UK as a whole (8.5% and 20.1%, respectively).
  • However, compared to pre-pandemic, in the Scottish labour market there has been a 0.4% decrease in students being inactive (falling to 197,000), whereas in the UK a 5.6% increase was seen in April 2021 to March 2022.
  • Among those who were economically inactive in the Scottish labour market, the number of people wanting a job fell by 14,000 (8.6%) when comparing April 2021 to March 2022 with January to December 2019. The number of such people reached 144,000 in the latter period, only just above the record low of 143,000 seen in the January to December 2021 period. The 8.6% fall up to the latest period was lower than the equivalent 9.7% fall seen for the UK as a whole.

2. Has long-COVID been a factor in current levels of labour market inactivity? If so, is this likely to be a permanent feature of the labour market?

  • In the UK, as of July 2022, 5.0% of people who were not in and not looking for paid work were experiencing self-reported long COVID. This was higher than for the other labour market statuses: unemployed (3.5%), employed (3.3%), retired (2.9%) and students (1.7%).
  • Data suggests that some of the increased inactivity could be due to long COVID. In July 2022, 1.8m people (2.8% of the population) reported suffering from long COVID in the UK, with 369,000 “limited a lot” by their symptoms. Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis estimates that this amounts to 110k additional “long-term sick” people absent from the labour market.
  • Evidence for Scotland specifically is limited. However, experimental statistics show that the latest prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection is higher in Scotland compared with England (differences with Wales and Northern Ireland were not statistically significant). In July 2022, 3.83% of the private-households population were estimated to be living with self-reported long COVID of any duration, compared with 2.98% in England.
  • The same research on the prevalence of long COVID also shows that the employment status with the highest prevalence across the UK is the ‘inactive and not looking for work’ group; with 6.43% of that population estimated to be living with self-reported long COVID of any duration. This compares with 3.81% among those employed, and 3.41% among those unemployed.

3. What has been the labour market impact of the pandemic on people with pre-existing health conditions?

  • The impact of long-COVID is felt unequally. As a proportion of the UK population, the prevalence of self-reported long COVID was greatest in people aged 35 to 69 years, females, people living in more deprived areas, those working in social care, those aged 16 years or over who were not students or retired and who were not in or looking for paid work, and those with another activity-limiting health condition or disability.
  • The NHS waiting list (UK wide) has been growing and will likely be responsible for some of the increase in long-term sick inactivity. Since April 2018, 18-week waits are up 2m and inactivity is up 0.4m. Further work is required to look at conditions and geography to consider any relationship between waiting lists and inactivity. The second wave of the ONS Over-50s Lifestyle Study (OLS) should provide us with helpful insights later in September. The ONS is happy to share a copy of findings once they are available.

4. What factors have influenced some people to take early retirement?

  • Evidence for Scotland specifically is limited. However, across the UK, the OLS found that among adults aged 50 to 70 years who had left or lost their job since the start of the pandemic, just over 6 in 10 (63%) adults said they had left work sooner than those in their 50s were more likely to say this (77%) than those aged 60 years and over (57%).
  • Leaving work to retire was the most reported reason (47%), with the vast majority saying it was their choice to leave. However, 6% said they had lost their job and subsequently retired, suggesting that their exit from the labour market was involuntary.
  • The next most frequent reasons given for leaving work were:
    • the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (15%);
    • illness or disability (13%);
    • and they did not want to work anymore (11%).
  • 75% said it was their choice to leave their previous job. 5% said they had lost their job, and 10% had been furloughed and then lost their job.
  • Findings from the OLS suggest that people leaving professional occupations may be more likely to be able to afford their retirement with increased savings since the pandemic compared with other occupations.
  • Of those leaving professional occupations, 22% reported their savings had increased since the start of the pandemic, the highest for all occupational groups. In comparison, 20% of those leaving caring occupations reported they had no savings.

5. Thinking about labour market participation, have certain groups of society and parts of the country been impacted more than others?

  • Comparing the latest period (April 2021 to March 2022) with the pre-pandemic reference point (January to December 2019), APS estimates of the number of economically inactive people aged 16-64 in Scotland show a larger increase among men (up 24,000 to 341,000) than among women (up 10,000 to 466,000).
  • Looking at age groups in more detail, increases in economic inactivity levels have been seen across all age groups in the Scottish labour market, except for those aged 18 – 24 which have decreased by 6,000 to 131,000 (or 4.5%) in April 2021 to March 2022.
  • The largest increase in level terms is seen amongst those aged 50 – 64, rising by 22,000 to 334,000 (or 7.2%).
  • In April 2021 to March 2022 the economic inactivity rate for ethnic minorities (33.4%) in Scotland was greater than the Scottish labour market average (23.5%), and the economic inactivity rate for ethnic minorities in the UK (26.7%). However, the economic inactivity rate has decreased for ethnic minorities in Scotland since pre-pandemic (down 3.0 percentage points from 36.4).
  • Comparing the period April 2021 to March 2022 with January to December 2019, the most notable increase in the economic inactivity rate across Scottish Local Authority regions is seen in the Highland, rising 9.2 percentage points to 28.1%. Other notable increases are seen in North Lanarkshire (6.2 percentage point increase to 28.2%), Aberdeen City (5.3 percentage point increase to 23.7%), North Ayrshire (4.3 percentage point increase to 29.5%) and Aberdeenshire (4.0 percentage point increase to 21.0%). On the other hand, Inverclyde, Midlothian, Glasgow City and the City of Edinburgh have seen 5.2, 3.4, 3.7 and 2.9 percentage point decreases (to 22.4%, 14.2%, 25.6% and 19.8%) respectively.

6. Have there been sectoral differences from economic inactivity – for example, have Health and Hospitality sectors been more exposed than, for example, Finance?

  • In the Scottish labour market, the arts, entertainment and recreation industry saw the greatest fall in workforce jobs down 31,000 to 74,000, with a percentage rate change of negative 29.4% when compared to a pre-pandemic December 2019. Other industries displaying large falls in workforce jobs were accommodation and food service activities, down 16,000 and other service activities down 12,000. There was also a fall of 8,000 for agriculture, forestry and fishing.
  • These falls in the number of jobs were partially offset by increases in other industries, the largest of which were human health and social work activities (up 28,000, or 6.9%) and administrative and support services (up 16,000, 7.2%).
  • More broadly, in June 2022, businesses in Scotland report the lowest proportion of businesses currently experiencing a shortage of workers (12.5%), compared with Northern Ireland (22.8%), Wales (15.6%) and England (13.7%). Businesses in construction were more likely to report worker shortages in Scotland (16.6%) than those in the services sector (10.9%).

Office for National Statistics oral evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee’s inquiry on Scotland’s Census

On Thursday 8 September 2022 Professor Sir Ian Diamond, National Statistician at the Office for National Statistics, gave oral evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee for their inquiry on Scotland’s Census.

A transcript of which has been published on the Scottish Parliament’s website.

Office for Statistics Regulation written evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Covid-19 Recovery Committee’s inquiry on pre-budget scrutiny

Dear Ms Brown, 

I am writing to make you and the Committee aware that on 30 August 2022 the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has published an update to our March 2021 review of the COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS). The CIS measures how many people living in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and England test positive for a COVID-19 infection at a given point in time, regardless of whether they experience symptoms. In Scotland, the statistics contribute to ongoing surveillance of the coronavirus pandemic, along with other sources such as genomic sequencing to identify new variants, testing in health and social care settings, and wastewater surveillance.  

The CIS is therefore a key component of public health surveillance in Scotland. In line with its importance, we have maintained a close regulatory focus on how the survey is conducted and on how the results are calculated and presented. The background to our latest review is that in June 2022, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced changes to the survey, introducing a digital questionnaire and sending swab and blood sample kits by post. These changes reflected plans to maintain a scaled back version of the CIS set out by the UK Government in its Living with COVID-19 plan.  

In light of the ONS’s changes, we agreed with the ONS that we would undertake a further review of the statistics against the Code of Practice for Statistics. This update looks at whether, and to what extent, the statistics from this survey continue to serve the public good.  

Our review highlights the ongoing value of the CIS. Given the cessation of the REACT study and changes in testing regimes by governments across the UK, these statistics are now the most up-to-date, reliable source on COVID-19 infections. They contribute to scientific advice provided to governments, including the Scottish Government, informing decisions on the ongoing management of the pandemic. In Scotland, the statistics are reported on weekly by Public Health Scotland in its COVID-19 statistical report. Public Health Scotland states that the statistics are the “current best understanding of community population prevalence”. The statistics from the CIS contribute to the estimate of the reproduction (R) number for Scotland, also published in Public Health Scotland’s report. This provides an assessment of whether the pandemic is shrinking or growing. And there is a high level of public interest in the survey – people really value the statistics and many use them to make day-to-day decisions, including potentially serious decisions for those vulnerable to COVID-19.   

Our review makes several recommendations to the ONS regarding ongoing improvements to the statistics: 

  • The ONS should ensure that devolved administrations have appropriate input at the programme level. The ONS has built good working-level relationships with the devolved administrations, including statisticians in the Scottish Government. However, we consider that devolved administrations would benefit from increased engagement at a senior level, for example to ensure that they can input to decisions relating to changes to the survey.  
  • The ONS should continue to inform users about the impacts of the change in mode to digital data collection on the statistics. We found that for the statistics to remain as valuable as possible, it is important for many users, particularly those in the devolved administrations, that granular breakdowns are still available following changes to the survey mode. We are encouraged to see ONS’s plans to understand and publish information about the change in mode. This includes information on any impact on the response rates and sample, and therefore the representativeness of the survey. The ONS recently published their initial findings on the effects of the change of mode which offers a first insight into many of these aspects. 
  • The ONS should ensure it keeps users informed about development plans, even if these plans are tentative and subject to change. While we appreciate that the ONS is working in a fast-moving environment and that decisions about the survey may sit with other partners, we consider that it could have done more to keep users informed in a clear and timely way about planned or potential changes to the survey. It will be particularly important for the ONS to keep users informed about the future of the survey as the financial year ends.
  • The ONS should also consider how the CIS can be adapted to play a role in understanding public health in future. The coronavirus pandemic reinforced the need for statistics to inform society about public health. In our review of lessons learned for health and social care statistics during the pandemic we highlighted the need for statistics producers across the UK to continue to develop outputs which go beyond operational data in order to support a better understanding of public health.  

I know the Committee is currently holding evidence sessions for their pre-Budget scrutiny on the COVID-19 strategic framework and are looking specifically at surveillance measures. I hope this letter will help inform the Committee’s work on the subject. 

Please do let me know if you have any questions.  

Yours sincerely  

Ed Humpherson
Director General for Regulation 

Office for National Statistics correspondence to the Scottish Parliament’s Public Audit Committee on the 2020/21 audit of Scottish Canals

Dear Mr Leonard,

I write in response to your letter of 13 April 2022, regarding the 2020/21 audit of Scottish Canals and the decision not to grant an extension of the implementation of Scottish Canals’ change of reporting status.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) was requested by the Scottish Government in 2019, to carry out a review of the classification of the Scottish Canals for economic statistics purposes. ONS allocates organisations with similar characteristics to sectors within the national accounts framework. At this time, Scottish Canals were already classified to the central government sector (as a body referenced as an NDPB in your letter) from 1 July 2012, the date the British Waterways Board order came into force.

ONS was asked under a further classification review, to establish whether these public bodies were now acting as market bodies and could be classified as public non-financial corporations. ONS’ review confirmed that they remain classified as a central government body.

The requirement for the Scottish Canals to change its reporting status is not as a direct result of the ONS classification review in 2019, as it was already classified as a central government body.

Reporting requirements are agreed via the relevant devolved administration with HM Treasury, and it is HM Treasury which makes arrangements for organisations to come into line with reporting standards set out in their Financial Reporting Manual (FreM). ONS cannot grant derogations on reporting status and the decision to apply an extension to the timeline in which changes in Scottish Canals’ reporting status had to be implemented, was not one for ONS.

Therefore, the question you have raised regarding the decision to not grant an extension relating to the implementation of Scottish Canals’ change of reporting status, should be addressed to both the Scottish Government and HM Treasury for consideration.

I hope you have found this letter to be helpful. Please let me know if we can be of any further assistance.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

Office for Statistics Regulation oral evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Health, Social Care and Sport Committee’s inquiry on Data and Digital Services in Health and Social Care

On Tuesday 23 November 2021 Ed Humpherson, Head of Regulation at the Office for Statistics Regulation, gave oral evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Health, Social Care and Sport Committee for their inquiry on Data and Digital Services in Health and Social Care.

A transcript of which has been published on the Scottish Parliament’s Website.

Office for Statistics Regulation follow-up written evidence to Scottish Parliament’s Health and Sport Committee’s inquiry on the future of social care delivery in Scotland

Dear Lewis,

SOCIAL CARE INQUIRY- FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS

Following our written evidence submitted to your Committee in February, I wish to offer further consideration and view on follow-up questions suggested to us for answer.

1. Measuring individuals’ outcomes, and outcomes associated with the integration of health and social care in Scotland. How can outcomes evaluation and measurement be implemented so that it is statistically sound and useful?

All public bodies who are involved in the production of official statistics should adhere to the principles set out Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code). Compliance with the Code ensures that statistics are of public value, are of high quality and are produced by departments and public bodies that can be trusted.

We note that the 31 Integration Authorities are not official statistics producers, and therefore there is no statutory requirement for them to comply with the Code. Scottish Government and Public Health Scotland (PHS) are official statistics producers. This means that, whilst the data sources for social care statistics are provided by bodies and organisations such as health and social care partnerships, local authorities and third sector organisations, statistics based on this data should comply with the Code.

In our February 2020 report, Adult Social Care Statistics in Scotland, we highlighted that, at the time of writing, fundamental gaps existed in social care statistics in Scotland which meant that they were not currently providing the range and depth of information needed to fully serve the public good. We cited as an example that a lack of information about outcomes for people who use social care was one of the most common frustrations we heard whilst conducting our report research. Users of social care statistics told us that too much emphasis is placed on counting system outputs, such as the number of hours of care delivered, costs of services and numbers of staff, and would instead like to know more about the outcomes achieved for the people using those services.

For outcome evaluation and measurement data to be published as official statistics, this will require that they are developed by an official statistic producing body in line with the Code. In our view, this will likely require some form of standardised data collection across the 31 Integration Authorities. Recent examples of such standardised data collection include those developed for the Carers Census and the new PHS adult social care data collection system.

In our report we made the following recommendation: ‘All social care statistics producers need to work together, in consultation with health and social care partnerships and statistics users, to identify and prioritise actions to address social care data gaps – including by making better use of existing data – and meet users’ information needs.’

In addition to the development of social care statistics, we recognise there may be a need for organisations delivering social care services to develop operational management information on service outcomes to inform commissioning and delivery of social care services. As these organisations are not official statistics producers, this type of information is out of scope of our formal regulatory remit. Notwithstanding this, in 2018 we introduced the ability for organisations who are not official statistics producers to sign up to voluntary application of the Code. This option is available to any producer of data, statistics and analysis which are not official statistics, whether inside government or beyond, to help them produce analytical outputs that are high quality, useful for supporting decisions, and well respected. A commitment to the Code pillars of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value offers the opportunity for an organisation to:

  • Compare its processes, methods and outputs against the recognised standards that the Code requires of official statistics.
  • Demonstrate to the public its commitment to trustworthiness, quality and public value.

Outcomes evaluation and measurement is not a challenge unique to Scotland. In our January 2020 report, Adult Social Care Statistics in England, we outlined that reliable and comprehensive evidence is vital for evaluating delivery and informing policy decisions which can lead to improved outcomes and support individual choice.

There are two aspects to this challenge.

  • Definitions: In the health context, there is a well-developed approach to comparing different interventions based on their impact on the life of the patient – known as the Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). There is not yet a comprehensive framework for thinking about and defining outcomes for social care interventions.
  • Cost effectiveness: In our England report, we highlighted that unlike health, where the effectiveness of interventions is a priority research area, in social care there is very little understanding of the most cost-effective intervention and what the impact of each intervention is. We strongly encouraged the implementation of joined up data across health and social care in England to understand how the two systems interact and what drives the best outcomes.

2. Professor David Bell, University of Stirling, highlighted in his evidence to the Committee the lack of data collection in Scotland in comparison with other parts of the UK. Currently, Scottish researchers rely on English statistics used for projecting demand. Do you have a view on this, particularly in relation to the policy divergence between the two health and care systems?

With regards to the specific issue that Scottish researchers currently rely on English statistics used for projecting demand, we do not have sufficient evidence to make a judgement on this.

However, in our February 2020 report, Adult Social Care Statistics in Scotland, we noted that many researchers are keen to make more use of health and social care data. We welcomed the creation of Research Data Scotland, which we hope will help address the data access issues that researchers currently face when seeking health, social care and other data, and support greater joining up of these data. In addition, in our report we recommended that PHS and Scottish Government should convene a social care data user summit in 2020 to help inform Research Data Scotland’s development and PHS’s plans for making more use of linked health and social care data.

Unfortunately, due to the restrictions imposed due to the pandemic, this summit has not yet been convened. We are in regular discussion with both PHS and the Scottish Government and are keen for this recommendation to be realised.

3. What approach(es) to data collection do you think need to be considered and what data do you feel is required?

As part of our research for our February 2020 report, Adult Social Care Statistics in Scotland, we spoke to organisations who are data providers for the current social care statistics. We highlighted the following important issues that require careful consideration as part of any new or amended official statistics data collection system.

  • Resourcing issues beset all aspects of social care data collection and statistics production. This includes the availability of staff to collect data and return it, the need for investment to improve its quality, the need for entirely new forms of data to be collected to better meet user needs, and the availability and capability of staff to use the data themselves to inform service development locally. We recognise that the resource implications associated with building new data systems are far greater than those associated with improving existing statistics. The drivers and funding to do this will also be largely beyond the reach of statistics producers alone.
  • Building data collection systems that deliver value to staff and users of social care is also difficult to do without imposing unreasonable administrative burdens. A significant amount of social care activity takes place beyond the scope of public sector service settings and the majority of the social care workforce (around 70%) is employed by private and third-sector providers. This makes the task of building routine data collection systems significantly harder.

It is our view that Scotland is not alone in facing these challenges. Our work in this sector as a UK wide regulator has identified similar difficulties with collecting data in disparate settings about human experiences (as opposed to flows of money or service provision).

Whilst we cannot be specific around what data is required in this case, we do expect that, in line with the Code, users of statistics and data should be at the centre of statistical production. Understanding user needs and seeking the views of users is important and should be used to direct what data is required. Official statistic producers should establish an ongoing dialogue with users to ensure that statistics continue to meet changing user needs and demand.

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasised the importance of responding to user need and has brought attention to existing gaps in adult social care statistics.

I hope this is useful to the Committee.

Yours sincerely
Ed Humpherson
Director General for Regulation

Office for Statistics Regulation written evidence to Scottish Parliament’s Health and Sport Committee’s inquiry on the future of social care delivery in Scotland

Dear Lewis

THE FUTURE DELIVERY OF SOCIAL CARE IN SCOTLAND: OSR INQUIRY SUBMISSION

We have today published our review of Adult Social Care Statistics in Scotland. We are using this work as the basis of our submission to the Health and Sport Committee’s Social Care Inquiry (see
annex).

Statistics that support our understanding of people who need or provide care, the impact it has on their lives, how the adult social care sector is currently delivered and how this might need to change in the future are an essential element in an ideal model of care. Without adequate statistics it is also impossible to assess the extent to which social care provision is equitable.

Our submission outlines various issues affecting the quality and value of adult social care statistics in Scotland that need to be addressed. Statistics producers have clearly demonstrated their strong understanding of these issues and share many of the concerns that users raised with us. Work is already underway to bring about positive improvements to adult social care data and statistics in Scotland. However, we believe that a major transformation of adult social care data and statistics is needed to fully meet users’ needs and this will require more fundamental action. We have made recommendations in three strategic areas to support this:

• clearer responsibility for analytical leadership is required to scope and deliver local and national level improvements
• the imbalance in resources currently available for health service and social care statistics needs to be addressed
• data systems need investment to improve the quality of existing datasets and to identify ways to capture new data to fill the many gaps that users have identified.

We will continue to work with a range of organisations to make the case for improvements to social care statistics in Scotland and more widely across the UK. We hope to raise the profile of these
issues through this inquiry submission, the more detailed report about Scotland published today, and via our companion reports about adult social care statistics in England and Wales.

I look forward to seeing the conclusions of your inquiry.

Your sincerely
Ed Humpherson
Director General for Regulation

 

 

ANNEX
SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT: SOCIAL CARE INQUIRY
SUBMISSION FROM THE OFFICE FOR STATISTICS REGULATION

What we do

1. The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) is the independent regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority. We provide independent regulation of all official statistics produced in the UK, including those in Devolved Nations and the NHS. Our regulatory work is underpinned by the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.
2. We set the standards official statistics must meet through the statutory Code of Practice for Statistics. We ensure that producers of official statistics uphold these standards by conducting
assessments against the Code. Those which meet the standards are given National Statistics status, indicating that they meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and value. We
also report publicly on system-wide issues and on the way statistics are being used, celebrating when the standards are upheld and challenging publicly when they are not.
3. We have staff in three locations: Newport, Wales; London; and Edinburgh.

This submission

4. This submission, which is based on the findings from our Review of Adult Social Care Statistics in Scotland, published on 20 February 2020, addresses the following two questions being
asked by the Inquiry:
• Q3: Looking ahead, what are the essential elements in an ideal model of social care (e.g. workforce, technology, housing etc.)?
• Q4: What needs to happen to ensure the equitable provision of social care across the country?

5. Statistics that support our understanding of people who need or provide care, the impact it has on their lives, how the adult social care sector is currently delivered and how this might need to
change in the future are an essential element in an ideal model of care. Without adequate statistics it is also impossible to assess the extent to which social care provision is equitable.

Are adult social care statistics in Scotland meeting users’ needs?

6. Statistics serve the public good when they enable a wide range of users to answer important questions. To do this adequately they need to:
• add value by covering the topics that matter to people
• have insightful commentary that draws out key messages
• tell a coherent story focused on the needs of information seekers, not providers
• be based on data of a suitable quality
• be published in a timely fashion
• be accessible in formats that support further analyses.

7. During our review we spoke to statistics users and producers, and conducted our own analysis of the adult social care statistics landscape. Based on the evidence we gathered, it is clear that
there are issues in all these areas that need to be addressed.
• There are gaps in the provision of statistics on social care – we don’t know how many people currently need social care and whether those needs are being met, how many people might
need care in future, and we don’t know how well social care services achieve their goals of helping people to live independently and maintain a good quality of life. It is difficult to estimate the total amount of public expenditure committed to adult social care. Out-of-pocket spending by individuals and their families is even harder to identify. Further examples of
questions that users told us they couldn’t answer are provided at the end of this submission.
• Many of the existing statistics that are published need more insightful commentary, and there needs to be greater coherence between all the different sets of statistics to make it easier for
users to see the complete picture about this sector. The timeliness of some statistics needs to be improved.
• Data quality is improving over time, but major challenges still remain, and re-use of social care data for research is not as extensive as it could be.

8. These issues affect a wide range of people and organisations who are not having their analytical needs fully met. These include: the general public, care users, care providers, Integrated Joint Boards, councils, NHS bodies, councillors and members of parliament, scrutiny and regulatory bodies, academics and researchers, and Scottish Government policy makers.
9. These gaps matter: statistics are necessary to inform policy, workforce planning and budget allocation. Individual users of care and their families need reliable information to help inform
their decisions. It is impossible to develop and evaluate future models of adult social care delivery without knowing how things stand currently.

Improving adult social care statistics

10. The statistics users we spoke to had a strong vision of what social care statistics should be delivering. And while there is currently a large gap between this vision and what currently
exists, official statistics producers in Scottish Government, ISD, the Scottish Social Services Council and the Care Inspectorate clearly share many of the concerns raised by users and are
demonstrating a strong appetite to make improvements. For example, the following developments are already helping to address some of these issues:

• new national data systems have been developed to improve data collection about the adult social care services delivered and funded by health and social care partnerships
• new statistics based on these data have been produced by ISD and users have been actively involved in shaping their development
• statistics based on the new Carers Census will be published by Scottish Government in 2020 that will deliver insights that are unavailable elsewhere in the UK
• new workforce statistics about vacancy rates have been developed by SSSC and the Care Inspectorate and plans are in place to make more use of data collected via inspections of social care services.

The Office for Statistics Regulation’s recommendations for adult social care statistics in Scotland

11. Building on the developments that statistics producers have already implemented, we have four recommendations to support further short to medium-term improvements.
• All social care statistics producers need to work together, in consultation with health and social care partnerships and statistics users, to identify and prioritise actions to address social
care data gaps – including by making better use of existing data – and meet users’ information needs.
• All social care statistics producers should work together – with statistics users – to identify ways to make social care statistics in Scotland more coherent. The social care topics that
matter to users should be the guiding framework for statistics presentation.
• Public Health Scotland, Scottish Government and the Care Inspectorate need to work together to identify a long-term solution that enables social care data to be shared safely and
efficiently.
• Public Health Scotland and Scottish Government should convene a social care data user summit in 2020 to help inform Research Data Scotland’s development and Public Health
Scotland’s plans for making more use of linked health and social care data.

12. The long-term transformation of adult social care statistics in Scotland will need more fundamental action. We have made recommendations in three strategic areas to support this.
• Clearer leadership to drive analytical integration – responsibility for social care statistics production is currently spread between different organisations. This can act as a barrier to the
more joined-up approach to data collection and analysis that is needed to improve the public good of the statistics. Clearer responsibility for analytical leadership is required to scope and
deliver local and national level improvements.
• Rebalance resources – there is an imbalance between the resources available for health service statistics production and social care statistics. This imbalance exists at all levels, from
the national bodies responsible for publishing statistics down to the teams and systems supporting data collection in local areas.
• Invest in data systems – the biggest challenge – logistically, technically and financially – is improving the underlying data used to create social care statistics. This will involve improving
the quality of existing data and identifying ways to capture new data to fill the many gaps that users have identified.

13. We will continue to use our voice to support the many innovations and improvements to data capture, analysis and dissemination that are already happening, and to advocate for further
developments in this area, to ensure that the statistics better reflect the lived experience of people using social care services.

Example questions about adult social care that users told us they cannot answer

Questions about people needing social care

• Is social care meeting its goals of helping people to live independently and maintain a good quality of life?
• What is the extent of unmet social care need in the population?
• How does adult social care use vary by protected characteristics and other sub-groups of interest?
• How many people are waiting for social care assessments and how long are they waiting for?
• What social security benefits are social care users receiving?

Questions about adult social care service delivery

• Where is there good practice locally?
• Are the right services being provided?
• How does service provision vary across Scotland (evidencing the postcode lottery)?
• Why does Self Directed Support (SDS) use vary across Scotland?
• What is the extent of adult social care input in end of life and palliative care?
• What are peoples’ experiences of using adult social care?
• What contributions do anticipatory and intermediate care make?

Questions about the cost of social care

• How much is spent on adult social care – by central government, local government, NHS boards?
• What is the extent of individuals self-funding regulated and unregulated care?
• How are Self Directed Support (SDS) budgets spent?