Scottish Government

Response from Humza Yousaf to Sir Robert Chote

Dear Sir Robert Chote,

Thank you for your letter of 1 November 2022 and the work of the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) to review and share lessons for health and social care statistics from the COVID-19 pandemic.

As noted in your report, the role of analysts in providing high quality evidence and timely insights has been critical during the pandemic to inform our understanding and decision making and I share your appreciation and thanks to all of our analysts. It was fantastic to see the efforts of the COVID and Flu National Vaccination Programme Team rewarded by winning the Top Team Award at this year’s Scottish Health Awards. This was very much a collaborative effort involving numerous colleagues including analysts within the Scottish Government, Public Health Scotland, the wider NHS and beyond.

Whilst we continue to closely monitor COVID-19, our analysts play a key role in providing evidence across the full range of health and care programmes, including supporting NHS recovery and the introduction of the National Care Service. The development of Scotland’s first Data Strategy for health and social care is progressing and this will set out the vision and ambitions for how we use data to deliver better services, greater innovation, and ensure the people of Scotland have greater access to, and greater control over, their health and social care information. We will of course ensure the Data Strategy reflects the important use of data to produce statistics and research to serve the public good.

The Scottish Government remains committed to learning lessons and we acknowledge the importance of delivering in the areas highlighted in your report – horizon scanning to understand users needs, making data and statistics available in an accessible, transparent and timely way, collaboration and communication – to provide high quality, trusted and valued statistics.

My officials from Health and Social Care Analysis (HSCA) division regularly meet with OSR’s Health and Social Care team and will keep them updated on our work and continual improvements across our statistics.

Yours sincerely,

Humza Yousaf

Dear Cabinet Secretary,

I am pleased to write to you commending the Office for Statistics Regulation’s report that was published today. 2022 update: lessons learned for health and social care statistics from the COVID-19 pandemic is an insightful analysis of the last year of the pandemic.

In its 2021 report, the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) highlighted the vital role that data and statistics played during the pandemic in supporting individuals to reach informed decisions. It has been possible to meet the increased analytical demands of the pandemic thanks to the extraordinary, dedicated efforts of the statisticians and analysts in your department. For that, I thank them all.

In its 2022 update, much like the UK’s health and care services, OSR has found a statistical system which is transitioning from pandemic crisis mode to living with COVID-19. While the intense analytical demands of the pandemic have eased, a real challenge is maintaining some level of analysis relating to COVID-19 while publishing new statistics to measure emerging issues, such as new disease outbreaks, and re-invigorating ‘business as usual’ statistics, such as those on NHS performance and the health and social care workforces. In the context of the increased demands on producers, we have identified four key areas which support the production of statistics which serve the public good:

Horizon scanning – understanding what information people need
Availability – ensuring data and statistics are made available in an accessible and transparent way
Collaboration – sharing data, plugging gaps and improving coherence and comparability
Communication – continuing to innovate and communicate statistics in a clear and engaging way to a wide range of users

We have seen many improvements to health and social care statistics over the last year. We have found a better understanding of the need for transparency of numbers used publicly by governments and are encouraged by new statistics published on topics of high public interest and ongoing efforts to fill existing data gaps. However, there is still progress to be made against several recommendations in our 2021 report, such as improving, where possible, the comparability of statistics across the UK and overcoming barriers to data sharing.

There are several developments relating to health and social care data in Scotland which we consider will support producers in their ability to provide timely information and analysis to support future decision-making. The Scottish Government is currently developing its Data Strategy for health and social care. Given that the pandemic demonstrated the importance of providing aggregated statistics to inform a wide range of people, we hope to see this purpose of health and social care data included in the final strategy. I look forward to the successful implementation of this data strategy, and trust that sufficient resource will be made available to turn new operational data into published statistics.

Yours sincerely

Sir Robert Chote

Jackie Baillie MSP to Sir David Norgrove: Test and Protect Statistics

Dear Sir David,

Misleading statistics used by the Scottish Government for Test and Protect

I write to you regarding the above matter.

Following media reports this weekend, I am deeply concerned to learn that the Scottish Government has been publishing Test and Protect figures that significantly overestimate its performance in meeting the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) target, which states that “at least 80% of new cases” should “have their close contacts traced and in quarantine within 72 hours of case confirmation.”

The figures that have been published to date are misleading as they do not include “failed” cases. When the 72-hour success rate calculation is done with the failed cases added in, the 80% WHO target has actually been missed by Test and Protect over the period since records began (week ending Aug 9, 2020, to week ending September 12, 2021).

The correct use of statistics is vital, particularly when we are encouraging everyone to take regular tests to stop the spread of the virus. It is imperative that the public have faith in the accuracy and truthfulness of the data that is published by the Scottish Government. As such, I would be grateful if you could investigate this matter and take appropriate action as you see fit.

Yours sincerely,

Jackie Baillie MSP

Ed Humpherson to Scott Heald: Test and Protect statistics

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Jackie Baillie MSP: Test and Protect Statistics

Dear Ms Baillie,

Thank you for your letter of 27 September regarding your concerns over the use of Test and Protect statistics by Scottish Government.

Scottish Government should be clearer about the limitations in comparing figures for Scotland (published by Public Health Scotland) with the World Health Organization target for contact tracing.

Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation, has today written to Public Health Scotland, copied to the Chief Statistician in Scottish Government, welcoming improvements to the presentation of these statistics. I enclose a copy of his letter.

Yours sincerely,
Sir David Norgrove

Jackie Baillie MSP to Sir David Norgrove: Test and Protect Statistics

Response on estimates of inbound visitors

Dear Ms Pow, Ms Hyslop and Lord Elis-Thomas,

Thank you for your letter of 13 August in which you highlight concerns about the quality of estimates from the International Passenger Survey for inbound visitors. You pointed to the importance of these estimates in enabling you to monitor and evaluate existing policy and develop new strategies.

Clearly you must be able to rely on these estimates. The Office for Statistics Regulation has committed to bringing forward its planned review of Overseas Travel and Tourism statistics. The review will include consideration of the issues you have raised in your letter with a view to publishing findings by the end of September 2019. This review will build on the compliance check published in October 2018 which looked at the transparency and communication of International Passenger Survey methods changes, delays and quality information.

OSR will engage with your officials to ensure the review reflects the concerns you have identified.

I am copying this letter to Iain Bell, Deputy National Statistician for Population and Public Policy.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Income tax reconciliations for Scotland

Dear Finance Secretary,

The Scottish Government recently asked the UK Statistics Authority to consider a tweet and press article by the then Chief Secretary to the Treasury on the subject of income tax reconciliations for Scotland,(1) in which Ms Truss described a “£941m shortfall in Scottish tax revenues due to lower growth in Scotland.”. You argued that this was inaccurate.(2)

The Authority has examined Ms Truss’s article and the HM Treasury press statement on which it relied.(3) The statements in the press release, subsequently repeated by the Chief Secretary, clearly link the whole of the reconciliation in tax receipts and block grant adjustment to slower than expected economic growth in Scotland. We agree with you that this is incorrect. The principal reasons for the block grant adjustment were in fact an initial overestimate of the Scottish tax base and faster growth of tax receipts than expected in the rest of the UK.

The Authority’s Deputy Director for Regulation has today written to the Treasury’s Head of Profession for Statistics. I enclose a copy of her letter, in which she urges the need to improve the presentation of the Scottish fiscal framework in line with our Code of Practice for Statistics.

I am copying this letter to the former Chief Secretary and to the Heads of Profession for Statistics at the Treasury and at HM Revenue and Customs.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

1 https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1152111958428200960/photo/1
2 https://twitter.com/DerekMackaySNP/status/1152180904250490880
3 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scottish-income-tax-shortfall-offset-by-uk-funding

Code of Practice Consultation

Sir David Norgrove to Derek Mackay, Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Constitution on Code of Practice consultation.

Response from Humza Yousaf to Sir Robert Chote

Related links

Sir Robert Chote to Humza Yousaf MSP – COVID-19 lessons learnt

Related links

Jackie Baillie MSP to Sir David Norgrove: Test and Protect Statistics

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Jackie Baillie MSP: Test and Protect Statistics

Response on estimates of inbound visitors

Income tax reconciliations for Scotland

Code of Practice Consultation