This report covers the work of the Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP) from 1 October 2023 to 30 September 2024. In that period, the panel met 4 times and considered 10 papers detailing methodologies across the Office for National Statistics (ONS) work areas, with the Future of Population and Migration Statistics (FPMS) being a key topic of consideration. Given the importance of this work programme, the panel is updated on progress at every meeting, and reviews urgent items via correspondence between meetings if necessary.

Also considered were items and updates on other matters seeking early assurance and review ahead of full paper publication. For a full list of papers and topics assessed during this period, and the minutes of meetings where these were discussed, please visit the MARP minutes and MARP papers pages. These documents should be regarded as annexes to this report.

The focus on methods and statistical design for FPMS is expected to continue into 2024/25 with the National Statistician’s recommendation on FPMS currently due in 2025. Of note within this area, the panel commented during the FPMS consultation and reviewed methods for producing population stock estimates, using linked administrative data and a coverage survey, also considering future directions. A simulation study of the template model builder was considered, alongside a proof of concept using geospatial techniques to model small area population estimates. Methods for estimating British nationals long term international migration were examined alongside another paper with methods for EU migration.

Methods on estimation of travel to work matrices were considered, along with a proposed harmonised standard for ethnicity. Disclosure control proposals to support the FPMS programme were considered, as well as an evaluation and quality assessment of the Reference Data Management Framework (RDMF).

In addition to the core activity of MARP, subcommittees of the panel continued and were added to. The previous subcommittee examining gender identity measurement within the census concluded. A new subcommittee examining labour market statistics was established, with additional academic members Professor Ray Chambers and Professor James Brown. The ONS proposed setting up a further subcommittee examining the Dynamic Population Model, with proposals and membership consideration being discussed at the end of this reporting period ahead of being set-up for 2024/25. These subcommittees address requests from the National Statistician, supporting the terms of reference and fulfilling the purpose of the panel.

The panel continues, within its previously widened remit in 2022/23, to examine and comment on every item brought by the ONS, both in preparation ahead of relevant meeting, and at the meeting itself, making recommendations for the ONS and when necessary requesting items be brought back or updates be provided as actions. The panel is satisfied that ONS has taken account of recommendations, guidance and challenge, and that the final versions of papers reflect such considerations.

The Panel remained unchanged during the year, with Bernard Silverman as the chair, and Ana Basiri, Oliver Duke-Williams, Carl Emmerson, Nik Lomax and Natalie Shlomo as Panel members. Membership of the panel is under active review, to ensure that it continues to have expertise commensurate with the Terms of Reference.