• 10:30 – Introduction
• 10:35 – Action update
• 10:40 – Panel Update: Lievesley review
• 11:00 – Future of Population and Migration Statistics update
• 11:20 – EAP218 Summary of progress for Coverage Estimation
• 12:15 – Break
• 12:45 – EAP217 Hierarchical Models and aggregate uncertainty in the Dynamic Population Model
• 13:30 – Census 2021 benefits methodology update
• 13:50 – Any other business and close

Panel members

• Sir Bernard Silverman (Chair)
• Ana Basiri
• Oliver Duke-Williams
• Carl Emmerson
• Nik Lomax
• Natalie Shlomo

Office for National Statistics

• Owen Abbott
• Shelley Gammon (Presenter)
• Ceejay Hammond (Presenter)
• Amy Large (Presenter)
• Duncan Elliott (Presenter)
• Salah Merad (Presenter)
• Robert Mwemeke (Presenter)
• Emily Knipe (Presenter)
• Shuwei Lin
• Mohammed Makhdoom
• Pratibha Vellanki
• Alice White
• Tom Tarling (Secretariat)
• Susan Williams (Secretariat)
• Emily Winstone (Secretariat)

1. Introduction (Sir Bernard Silverman)

1. Sir Bernard, the chair, welcomed attendees and panel members.

2. Actions Update (Tom Tarling)

1. Action 100: Consultation Updates
   • The Chair shared with the panel his discussions with ONS and it was agreed no further follow-up was required. The action can be closed when the recommendation on the Future of Population and Migration Statistics (FPMS) is published.
2. Action 108: Ethnicity Harmonised Standard – ONS to follow-up on recommended datasets mentioned by panel.
   • The ONS plans have been published and shared with the panel. This action can be closed, with future papers on the topic to come to the panel.
3. Action 111: ONS to circulate proposal and confirm membership of the Dynamic Population Model (DPM) sub-committee.
   • The chair encouraged members with interest to observe. Ana Basiri expressed interest in attending the sub-committee. ONS will share notes and items to the sub-committee with all panel members. This action is closed.

3. Panel Update: Lievesley review (Secretariat)

1. There was some discussion about the relevance of the Lievesley review to MARP.  The review contained recommendations applying to advisory committees but the chair expressed the view that MARP was not an advisory committee and therefore not in scope.
2. Subsequently the chair met with the National Statistician and agreed that:
   1. MARP’s role is about assurance and thus does not play the same role as the National Statistician’s advisory panels. Nevertheless, the spirit of the review is that we should examine our procedures carefully.
   2. There will not be formal term limits, but there will be a process of annual (light touch) reviews for members including the chair. It may well be that members will of their own accord stand down from time to time, which will give some rotation.
   3. Each year ONS will provide a forward work programme and assess the skill set of the committee against that, including plans for succession.
   4. In the event that there is a gap that needs filling, either because a member stands down or because a need has been identified, the recruitment will follow the guidance in the review. However, the National Statistician may choose to make an exception to invite a particular individual.
3. A minor change to the Terms of Reference will be proposed to capture this agreement.

4. Future of Population and Migration Statistics (FPMS) Update (Owen Abbott)

1. ONS presented key updates to the FPMS programme, and timelines of publications and future considerations, with upcoming items in June 2025.
2. Progress on topics previously brought to MARP was discussed.
3. The panel discussed the timeline and procedure of development of key statistics. The importance of cohesion in statistics was discussed. ONS said it was working with devolved authorities to share methods and knowledge of developments.

5. EAP218 Summary of progress for Coverage Estimation (Ceejay Hammond, Amy Large, Shelley Gammon)

1. ONS presented progress on Coverage Estimation for the Statistical Population Dataset (SPD).
2. ONS noted that other options are also being considered and that there were some links between options. There will be follow-up with the panel on this.
3. Challenges with response rates to voluntary surveys were noted by the panel. The panel encouraged ONS to consider the impact of mandatory surveys. ONS noted the social surveys division were currently exploring this, though agreed further trials could be considered.
4. Discussions on the PECADO approach examined coverage issues for 0-4 year olds, and noted lower engagement of working age males with the NHS data.
5. Approaches by other National Statistics Institutes (NSIs) were discussed, with the panel noting some approaches couldn’t be replicated in the UK due to a lack of a consistent identity number to use for linkage.
6. The chair noted he is working closely with ONS on Multiple System Estimation methods. It was suggested an explainer covering papers within the topic would be beneficial for a range of audiences.

Action:

ONS to produce and provide to the panel an explainer on the Multiple System Estimation methods being explored.

6. EAP217 Hierarchical Models and aggregate uncertainty in the Dynamic Population Model (Duncan Elliot, Salah Merad)

1. ONS presented the paper, following up on previous material brought to MARP.
2. The panel commented that the team should examine the 90th percentile as well as the median when assessing uncertainty in the Dynamic Population Model results.
3. The panel noted a revision plan should be considered, as multiple changes in the data were plausible. ONS agreed, and a future paper should be brought to MARP.
4. The panel commented that the method was computationally expensive. There was discussion about whether levels below Local Authority would be feasible, noting user needs could change with time, and in some cases user demand already exceeded the Local Authority level.

7. Census 2021 benefits methodology update (Robert Mwemeke, Emily Knipe)

1. ONS presented an update item to a paper previously brought to MARP.
2. Application of the previous method to evaluate census benefits revealed limitations leading to a new approach and method.
3. The panel asked for clarity in who the audience for the final report was. ONS replied the target audience was HM Treasury and interested parliamentarians.
4. The panel agreed further updates would be beneficial, with more specifics. A worked example was proposed, and work highlighting the cost-benefit analysis aspect. ONS agreed a final report would be brought to MARP, with an interim update.
5. The panel advised ONS to anticipate the need to apply the new approach to 2021 Census, future census or Admin Based Population Estimates for equivalence. The panel recommended looking at similar methodologies used by Australian and New Zealand National Statistics Institutes (NSIs).

Action:

ONS to provide a worked example to the panel to be considered via correspondence.

8. Any other business

1. There was no further business. The meeting was closed.