Home Office

Response from Sir Robert Chote to Robert Jenrick MP – Asylum Backlog Statistics

Dear Minister,

Thank you for your letter of 17 April responding to concerns about statistics used in discussion of the backlog of outstanding asylum cases^[1].

I very much welcome the clarification you made and your acknowledgment of the importance of accurate and appropriate use of evidence and statistics.

In a similar spirit, but on a different topic, concerns have been raised with us about your statement in the House of Commons on 20 March that:

“Today, a majority of the cases being considered for modern slavery are people who are coming into the country – for example, on small boats. We are seeing flagrant abuse, which is making it impossible for us to deal appropriately with the genuine victims, to the point that 71% of foreign national offenders in the detained estate, whom we are trying to remove from the country, are claiming to be modern slaves.”^[2]

The Home Office advised us that the quoted figure comes from a recent report about modern slavery referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK in small boats^[3] and that your statement was intended to refer to the proportion of foreign national offenders (FNOs) that are referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) as potential victims of modern slavery.

The report explains that while an increasing proportion of all those in detention after arriving by small boat are referred to the NRM up from 52% in 2020 to 73% in 2021 (and subsequently falling to 65% between January and September 2022), the proportion among foreign national offenders is much lower (at around 20% between January and September 2022).

As you have acknowledged, it is important that published statistics and analysis are quoted accurately and are not misrepresented, to avoid the risk of misleading the public. We have written to the Home Office^[4] previously about the importance of ensuring that it is clear whether claims on modern slavery, in particular those relating to people ‘gaming’ or ‘abusing’ the modern slavery system, are sourced from published statistics or from other reliable evidence.

Yours sincerely,

Sir Robert Chote
Chair

Footnotes

^[1] Letter from Robert Jenrick MP to Sir Robert Chote – Asylum Backlog Statistics, 17 April 2023

^[2] Illegal Migration Bill, Hansard, 20 March 2023

^[3] Modern slavery referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK on small boats, Home Office

^[4] Ed Humpherson to Jennifer Rubin: use of National Referral Mechanism statistics, 8 December 2022

Response from Sir Robert Chote to Emily Thornberry MP – crime and police statistics

Dear Ms Thornberry,

Thank you for your letters regarding the use of statistics on crime and policing by Ministers. You asked about a statement the Prime Minister made on 22 March about crime. You also asked about an interview in which the Minister for Crime, Policing and Fire discussed police recruitment.

The Prime Minister said that

“since the Conservatives came into power, crime is down 50 per cent”

This statement is an accurate description of estimates of total incidents of crime against individuals as measured by the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), excluding fraud and computer misuse. Figure 1 [1] from the latest ONS bulletin at that time shows this trend since 1981.

As you highlight in your letter, the UK Statistics Authority has in the past advised that fraud and computer misuse should be included in statements about overall crime wherever possible. However, the CSEW only started asking questions related to these offences in 2015. The Prime Minister therefore used the most appropriate data source for comparing trends in the total level of crime since 2010.

Nevertheless, it would support public understanding if Ministers using this comparison were explicit in stating the offences excluded, or instead used figures relating to specific types of offences. The CSEW records a wide variety of offences which vary greatly in their severity.

In your letter of 18 April you asked us to look at statements on police recruitment levels made by the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire, Chris Philp MP, during an interview on Good Morning Britain.

The Minister said

“If you take 2010 as the starting point – 145,000, that was the previous peak, March 2010 – when the figures come out next week, you’ll see that they are higher than that 145,000.”

He also said,

“I’m not going to speculate precisely, but it will be some margin higher, we’re talking about some thousands higher [than March 2010].”

You suggested these statements might have been made using knowledge of the statistics ahead of their scheduled publication date on 26 April, contrary to the Code of Practice for Statistics. We spoke with Home Office statisticians and the Minister’s office and found no evidence of that. The latest published police officer uplift statistics at the time of the interview showed that in December 2022 there were 145,658 police officers in England and Wales, and that the net increase due to the Police Uplift Program (PUP) since October 2022 was 1,420. From this information, and other management information^[2], it was reasonable to have inferred that the March 2010 figure could have been exceeded by several thousand.

Yours sincerely,

Sir Robert Chote
Chair

FOOTNOTES

[1]

^[2] As reported in the Office for Statistics Regulation’s July 2022 compliance assessment of the police uplift statistics, the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), produces a monthly management information report and dashboard on the PUP for police forces and Ministers. Statisticians in the Home Office informed us that the last management information data the Minister had access to was from February 2023.

NOTES

The CSEW provides the best estimate of long-term trends in crime. As a household survey of individual adults, it does not provide estimates for crimes against businesses (such as non-domestic burglary), societal crimes such as drug taking, or crimes against children.
There is a break in the CSEW time series because of the suspension of face-to-face interviewing between March 2020 and October 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data for the year ending September 2022 are based on interviews conducted since the resumption of fieldwork in October 2021, measuring experiences of crime in the 12 months before the interview. This means crimes recorded in the most recent estimates could have occurred as far back as October 2020 and as recently as August 2022.

Letter from Robert Jenrick MP to Sir Robert Chote – Asylum Backlog Statistics

Dear Sir Robert,

Thank you for enclosing copies of your letters of 23 March to Stephen Kinnock MP and Lord Paddick, regarding statistics that the Prime Minister and I used last December in relation to the asylum backlog.

I clarified this matter in my comments in the debate on the Illegal Migration Bill on 27 March, in response to Stephen Kinnock MP. As I said in the House on 27 March, the statistics I quoted came from a report published by John Vine, then Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration and relate to approximately 400,000-450,000 unresolved legacy records which were still being dealt with by the UK Border Agency in 2010.

In addition, you may be aware that the Home Affairs Select Committee, chaired by the then Labour Member for Leicester East, published a report [1] stating that ‘during the late 1990s and early 2000s the Home Office built up a backlog of between 400,000 and 450,000 unresolved asylum cases.

I am grateful for having the opportunity to clarify this matter. I very much agree on the importance of accurate and appropriate use of evidence and statistics and would strongly endorse the comments made by Sir Matthew Rycroft, Permanent Secretary at the Home Office, in his recent response to the UK Statistics Authority’s Director General for Regulation on this issue. As Sir Matthew says, the department already publishes a very large number of statistics on the operation of our Immigration system and is making great efforts to ensure that this information is being clearly communicated to the public and will continue to do so.

As regarding the present backlog of cases in the asylum system, we are taking urgent action to accelerate decision-making and speed up processing times. We are simplifying and modernising our system, including introducing shorter, more focused interviews; making guidance more accessible; dealing with cases more swiftly where they can be certified as manifestly unfounded; recruiting extra decision makers; and allocating dedicated resources for specific nationalities.

As a result of the measures we are taking, it is expected we will clear the legacy asylum backlog by the end of 2023. This work is already bearing fruit and progress in this regard will be reported each quarter in Home Office statistics, the next update will be published on 25 May.

I am also ensuring that a copy of this letter is placed in the library of the House.

Yours sincerely,

Rt Hon Robert Jenrick MP
Minister of State for Immigration

Response from Sir Robert Chote to Stephen Kinnock MP – Asylum Backlogs

Andrew Gwynne to Sir Robert Chote – DHSC chart on nurses’ pay

Dear Sir Robert,

Misleading DHSC chart on nurses’ pay

I am writing to raise concerns over a chart, recently published by the Department of Health and Social Care, which I believe to be deliberately misleading.

I have attached a link to the chart entitled ‘How Nurses’ Pay Has Increased’ to this letter. You will no doubt notice that the chart is marked with the Royal coat of arms, and was tweeted from the Department of Health and Social Care’s official Twitter account on the 10th of November, suggesting it is an official DHSC publication rather than a party-political image. A number of decisions have been made in creating the chart which are cause for concern, and which I would appreciate your views on.

The first is that the data has been presented without the effect of inflation. With inflation at 11.1%, it is disingenuous to claim that nurses been awarded a pay rise, when in fact the average pay of a nurse has fallen by 8% since 2010. A recent analysis found that the real-terms salary of an experienced nurse has fallen by 20% in the same period.

Even within the (limited) parameters of the time-period the graph represents, the average earnings of an NHS nurse have fallen in real-terms since March 2021 once inflation is considered. There also seems to have been a conscious decision to choose the top and bottom of bands rather than the mean or median in each band.

In addition to this – and as highlighted by Dr Duncan Robertson at Loughborough University – the graph has been plotted without starting the y axis at zero. This leads to presentation of the ‘increase’ as being more pronounced than it otherwise would have been. Furthermore, there clearly seems to be a discrepancy between the lower to upper ratio for distance and the lower to upper ratio for £ value on the y axis. There is also a steeper gradient on the line plotting Newly Qualified Nurses’ pay, despite this being less of a purported ‘increase’ than that received by those at the top of band 6.

All these factors taken together result in a poorly plotted chart, which seems to have been manipulated in a way which has the effect of supporting recent comments made by the Secretary of State for Health, who has stated that “we […] have given over one million NHS workers a pay rise of at least £1,400 this year on top of a 3% rise last year”.

It is my view that this graph essentially amounts to misleading Conservative party-political campaigning material. It is not appropriate that official departmental channels are used in this manner and would welcome an investigation into this matter by the UKSA.

Kind regards,

Andrew Gwynne

Further response from Sir David Norgrove to Stephen Timms – Leave to Remain with No Recourse to Public Funds statistics

Dear Mr Timms,

I write again following my letter of 27 September about the publication of statistics on people being granted Leave to Remain with No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF).

The Home Office Deputy Director for Migration Statistics wrote to Ed Humpherson on 15 December 2021 and 13 January 2022, reporting progress on data related to NRPF. He expects the new Home Office IT systems to be operational at some point in 2022 (rather than by the end of 2021 as previously set out), after which point analysts hope they will be better able to look at repeat applications. It was not clear whether data on reasons for refusal will be available in the future. In the meantime, in its update, the Home Office provided new analysis of repeat applications based on information it presently holds, although they emphasised that these are initial estimates based on the current systems.

We also understand that the Home Office is planning to publish its plans for further data and statistics on NRPF and exploratory work on migrant poverty as part of its annual update to users on future plans for Home Office statistics. This annual update is due to be published later this month.

The Department continues to publish data on NRPF applications for a change of condition. Data on NRPF are clearly of public interest, and our director general for regulation Ed Humpherson has written to the Home Office welcoming its commitment to publishing its plans for further data and statistics on NRPF and plans for exploratory work on migrant poverty later this month. He has also recently met with officials there as part of ongoing discussions about analysis in the Department more generally.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Alistair Carmichael MP to Sir David Norgrove – Use of official crime statistics by Prime Minister, Home Secretary and Home Office

Dear Sir David,

I am writing to raise concerns over the misrepresentation of official crime statistics by the Prime Minister, the Home Secretary and the Home Office.

In a press release dated Thursday 27th January 2022,[1] the Home Office claimed that “ONS crime statistics out today show that crime continues to fall under this Government.” However, that is contradicted by the Office for National Statistics publication itself, which states:

“Estimates from the TCSEW [Telephone-operated Crime Survey for England and Wales] for the year ending September 2021 compared with the pre-coronavirus year ending September 2019 show: a 14% increase in total crime, driven by a 47% increase in fraud and computer misuse”.

The Home Office’s statement is therefore clearly not an accurate representation of the ONS figures. Elsewhere, the release refers to “overall crime levels recorded by the ONS, excluding fraud and computer misuse”, but that cannot justify the broader, unqualified claim that “crime continues to fall”.

The Prime Minister repeated this falsehood in his statement to the House of Commons on the Sue Gray Report on Monday 31st January. He claimed that “we [this Government] have been cutting crime by 14%”.

The Prime Minister and the Government should not be disregarding a large, serious and growing area of crime – fraud and computer misuse – to claim a reduction in overall crime. Victims of fraud have been let down and ignored for too long, and writing them out of the story only makes that worse. In addition, the Home Secretary misattributes the fall in certain types of crime to the Government’s ‘Beating Crime Plan’. In the release, she says: “This Government continues to cut crime through our Beating Crime Plan… Our approach is working – crime including theft, burglary and knife crime are down.”

Again, this claim is contradicted by the ONS bulletin. It says:

“Total crime excluding fraud and computer misuse decreased by 14% compared with the year ending September 2019. This was largely driven by an 18% decrease in theft offences. These decreases were related to the coronavirus pandemic and government instructions to limit social contact.” [Emphasis added]

It is therefore a gross misrepresentation for the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary to claim credit for the fall without even referencing the impact of the Covid pandemic and restrictions.

Tackling crime is a vitally important issue, and Cabinet Ministers should not mislead the public about it. It is crucial for public trust and understanding that official statistics are used accurately and not misrepresented.

As you have said in the past in relation to crime statistics, when politicians use figures that do not reflect reality, it can lead to pressure for policies that are not supported by the data – and that would not be desirable.

I therefore ask that you investigate the Home Office’s press release – including the Home Secretary’s comments – and the Prime Minister’s statement, and offer your guidance on whether it is misleading.

Yours sincerely,
Alistair Carmichael MP

[1] Home Office, 27th January 2022, ‘Crime falling as Government implements Beating
Crime Plan’

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Alistair Carmichael MP – Use of official crime statistics by Prime Minister, Home Secretary and Home Office

Dear Mr Carmichael,

Thank you for your letter of 1 February challenging a recent statement about crime statistics by the Home Office including commentary from the Home Secretary. A similar statement was then repeated by the Prime Minister.

I agree that Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures of crime must be used accurately, and not misrepresented. In this case, the Home Office news release presented the latest figures in a misleading way.

The Home Office news release in two places presented the statistics to give a positive picture of trends in crime in England and Wales, based on a fall in total crime excluding fraud and computer misuse of 17% between the year ending June 2019 and the year ending September 2021. The exclusion was stated. However in the title and in two other places the release refers to a fall in crime, without making clear that this is true only if fraud and computer misuse are excluded. Likewise, the Prime Minister referred to a 14% reduction in crime, which is the change between the year ending September 2019 and the year ending September 2021. This figure also excludes fraud and computer misuse, though the Prime Minister did not make that clear.

If fraud and computer misuse are counted in total crime as they should be, total crime in fact increased by 14% between the year ending September 2019 and the year ending September 2021[1].

The ONS bulletin quite properly includes fraud and computer misuse in total crime. Those offences are then separated out in part to allow comparison with the long term data series and in part to be able to show that the sharp rise in fraud and computer misuse, as measured via the Telephone-operated Crime Survey for England and Wales, “more than offset the reductions seen for other types of crime”.

You asked about the claimed relationship between the Beating Crime Plan and trends in crime. The ONS assessment, as argued in the bulletin, is that the pandemic and associated restrictions were the main drivers of recent trends in the relevant types of crime, and it would have been helpful if the Home Office news release had acknowledged this.

We have written to the Home Office and to the offices of the Prime Minister and Home Secretary to draw their attention to this exchange.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

[1] Crime in England and Wales: year ending September 2021, Office for National Statistics

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Kit Malthouse – Crime Statistics

Dear Mr Malthouse,

Thank you for your letter of 2 May about the Leader of the Opposition’s statements on crime. I have written to Sir Keir today and I enclose a copy of my letter to him.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Kit Malthouse to Sir David Norgrove – Crime Statistics

Dear Sir David,

I am writing to express my concern over comments made by the Leader of the Opposition, Sir Keir Starmer QC MP, in the House of Commons, to the media and on social media on Wednesday 28 April 2021 and Thursday 29 April 2021.

During Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 28 April 2021 Sir Keir claimed that ‘crime is going up’. He repeated this claim in a clip to the media and finally he tweeted a video of his remarks in the Chamber.

These claims are false and conflict with official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) is the most reliable measure of trends in crime. Between the year ending June 2019 and the beginning of lockdown (year ending March 2020), the Survey estimated a significant 9% reduction in crime. Underlying this were significant falls in theft (12%) and criminal damage (13%).

Since the pandemic began, the ONS quarterly publication has reported based on findings from a Telephone-operated Crime Survey for England and Wales (TCSEW) and police recorded crime. The ONS have made clear that TCSEW estimates are not directly comparable with estimates derived from the face-to-face Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).

The public have a right not to be misled, especially with regard to a subject as emotive and important as crime. I request that you investigate the Leader of the Labour Party’s claims and issue the necessary censure should you decide that his comments were misleading.

Yours sincerely,

Kit Malthouse

Minister of State in the Home Office and Ministry of Justice

Response on ONS Domestic Abuse Statistics

Dear Minister,

The UK Statistics Authority was asked by the Men and Boys Coalition to consider your use of statistics on domestic violence in a parliamentary debate on 16 July. I enclose a copy of our reply to the Coalition.

I welcome plans by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to in future include figures on the sex of perpetrators of partner abuse against men and women separately.

I am copying this letter to the Acting Chief Statistician at the Home Office, the Director of Public Policy Analysis at ONS, and the UK Statistics Authority’s Director General for Regulation.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Dan Bell to Ed Humpherson (August 2019)

Response from Sir Robert Chote to Robert Jenrick MP – Asylum Backlog Statistics

Footnotes

Response from Sir Robert Chote to Emily Thornberry MP – crime and police statistics

FOOTNOTES

NOTES

Related links

Letter from Robert Jenrick MP to Sir Robert Chote – Asylum Backlog Statistics

Andrew Gwynne to Sir Robert Chote – DHSC chart on nurses’ pay

Misleading DHSC chart on nurses’ pay

Related links

Further response from Sir David Norgrove to Stephen Timms – Leave to Remain with No Recourse to Public Funds statistics

Related links:

Alistair Carmichael MP to Sir David Norgrove – Use of official crime statistics by Prime Minister, Home Secretary and Home Office

Related links:

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Alistair Carmichael MP – Use of official crime statistics by Prime Minister, Home Secretary and Home Office

Related links:

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Kit Malthouse – Crime Statistics

Related links:

Kit Malthouse to Sir David Norgrove – Crime Statistics

Related links:

Response on ONS Domestic Abuse Statistics