UK Statistical System Code of Practice Office for Statistics Regulation
UK Statistics AuthorityCorrespondenceHome Office

Andrew Gwynne to Sir Robert Chote – DHSC chart on nurses’ pay

Dear Sir Robert,

Misleading DHSC chart on nurses’ pay

I am writing to raise concerns over a chart, recently published by the Department of Health and Social Care, which I believe to be deliberately misleading.

I have attached a link to the chart entitled ‘How Nurses’ Pay Has Increased’ to this letter. You will no doubt notice that the chart is marked with the Royal coat of arms, and was tweeted from the Department of Health and Social Care’s official Twitter account on the 10th of November, suggesting it is an official DHSC publication rather than a party-political image. A number of decisions have been made in creating the chart which are cause for concern, and which I would appreciate your views on.

The first is that the data has been presented without the effect of inflation. With inflation at 11.1%, it is disingenuous to claim that nurses been awarded a pay rise, when in fact the average pay of a nurse has fallen by 8% since 2010. A recent analysis found that the real-terms salary of an experienced nurse has fallen by 20% in the same period.

Even within the (limited) parameters of the time-period the graph represents, the average earnings of an NHS nurse have fallen in real-terms since March 2021 once inflation is considered. There also seems to have been a conscious decision to choose the top and bottom of bands rather than the mean or median in each band.

In addition to this – and as highlighted by Dr Duncan Robertson at Loughborough University – the graph has been plotted without starting the y axis at zero. This leads to presentation of the ‘increase’ as being more pronounced than it otherwise would have been. Furthermore, there clearly seems to be a discrepancy between the lower to upper ratio for distance and the lower to upper ratio for £ value on the y axis. There is also a steeper gradient on the line plotting Newly Qualified Nurses’ pay, despite this being less of a purported ‘increase’ than that received by those at the top of band 6.

All these factors taken together result in a poorly plotted chart, which seems to have been manipulated in a way which has the effect of supporting recent comments made by the Secretary of State for Health, who has stated that “we […] have given over one million NHS workers a pay rise of at least £1,400 this year on top of a 3% rise last year”.

It is my view that this graph essentially amounts to misleading Conservative party-political campaigning material. It is not appropriate that official departmental channels are used in this manner and would welcome an investigation into this matter by the UKSA.

Kind regards,

Andrew Gwynne

 

Related links

Response from Sir Robert Chote to Andrew Gwynne MP – DHSC chart on nurses’ pay

Further response from Sir David Norgrove to Stephen Timms – Leave to Remain with No Recourse to Public Funds statistics

Dear Mr Timms,

I write again following my letter of 27 September about the publication of statistics on people being granted Leave to Remain with No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF).

The Home Office Deputy Director for Migration Statistics wrote to Ed Humpherson on 15 December 2021 and 13 January 2022, reporting progress on data related to NRPF. He expects the new Home Office IT systems to be operational at some point in 2022 (rather than by the end of 2021 as previously set out), after which point analysts hope they will be better able to look at repeat applications. It was not clear whether data on reasons for refusal will be available in the future. In the meantime, in its update, the Home Office provided new analysis of repeat applications based on information it presently holds, although they emphasised that these are initial estimates based on the current systems.

We also understand that the Home Office is planning to publish its plans for further data and statistics on NRPF and exploratory work on migrant poverty as part of its annual update to users on future plans for Home Office statistics. This annual update is due to be published later this month.

The Department continues to publish data on NRPF applications for a change of condition. Data on NRPF are clearly of public interest, and our director general for regulation Ed Humpherson has written to the Home Office welcoming its commitment to publishing its plans for further data and statistics on NRPF and plans for exploratory work on migrant poverty later this month. He has also recently met with officials there as part of ongoing discussions about analysis in the Department more generally.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Related links:

Stephen Timms MP to Sir David Norgrove: Leave to Remain with No Recourse to Public Funds statistics

Sir David Norgrove response to Stephen Timms MP: Leave to Remain with No Recourse to Public Funds statistics

Alistair Carmichael MP to Sir David Norgrove – Use of official crime statistics by Prime Minister, Home Secretary and Home Office

Dear Sir David,

I am writing to raise concerns over the misrepresentation of official crime statistics by the Prime Minister, the Home Secretary and the Home Office.

In a press release dated Thursday 27th January 2022,[1] the Home Office claimed that “ONS crime statistics out today show that crime continues to fall under this Government.” However, that is contradicted by the Office for National Statistics publication itself, which states:

“Estimates from the TCSEW [Telephone-operated Crime Survey for England and Wales] for the year ending September 2021 compared with the pre-coronavirus year ending September 2019 show: a 14% increase in total crime, driven by a 47% increase in fraud and computer misuse”.

The Home Office’s statement is therefore clearly not an accurate representation of the ONS figures. Elsewhere, the release refers to “overall crime levels recorded by the ONS, excluding fraud and computer misuse”, but that cannot justify the broader, unqualified claim that “crime continues to fall”.

The Prime Minister repeated this falsehood in his statement to the House of Commons on the Sue Gray Report on Monday 31st January. He claimed that “we [this Government] have been cutting crime by 14%”.

The Prime Minister and the Government should not be disregarding a large, serious and growing area of crime – fraud and computer misuse – to claim a reduction in overall crime. Victims of fraud have been let down and ignored for too long, and writing them out of the story only makes that worse. In addition, the Home Secretary misattributes the fall in certain types of crime to the Government’s ‘Beating Crime Plan’. In the release, she says: “This Government continues to cut crime through our Beating Crime Plan… Our approach is working – crime including theft, burglary and knife crime are down.”

Again, this claim is contradicted by the ONS bulletin. It says:

“Total crime excluding fraud and computer misuse decreased by 14% compared with the year ending September 2019. This was largely driven by an 18% decrease in theft offences. These decreases were related to the coronavirus pandemic and government instructions to limit social contact.” [Emphasis added]

It is therefore a gross misrepresentation for the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary to claim credit for the fall without even referencing the impact of the Covid pandemic and restrictions.

Tackling crime is a vitally important issue, and Cabinet Ministers should not mislead the public about it. It is crucial for public trust and understanding that official statistics are used accurately and not misrepresented.

As you have said in the past in relation to crime statistics, when politicians use figures that do not reflect reality, it can lead to pressure for policies that are not supported by the data – and that would not be desirable.

I therefore ask that you investigate the Home Office’s press release – including the Home Secretary’s comments – and the Prime Minister’s statement, and offer your guidance on whether it is misleading.

Yours sincerely,
Alistair Carmichael MP

[1] Home Office, 27th January 2022, ‘Crime falling as Government implements Beating
Crime Plan’

Related links:

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Alistair Carmichael MP – Use of official crime statistics by Prime Minister, Home Secretary and Home Office

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Alistair Carmichael MP – Use of official crime statistics by Prime Minister, Home Secretary and Home Office

Dear Mr Carmichael,

Thank you for your letter of 1 February challenging a recent statement about crime statistics by the Home Office including commentary from the Home Secretary. A similar statement was then repeated by the Prime Minister.

I agree that Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures of crime must be used accurately, and not misrepresented. In this case, the Home Office news release presented the latest figures in a misleading way.

The Home Office news release in two places presented the statistics to give a positive picture of trends in crime in England and Wales, based on a fall in total crime excluding fraud and computer misuse of 17% between the year ending June 2019 and the year ending September 2021. The exclusion was stated. However in the title and in two other places the release refers to a fall in crime, without making clear that this is true only if fraud and computer misuse are excluded. Likewise, the Prime Minister referred to a 14% reduction in crime, which is the change between the year ending September 2019 and the year ending September 2021. This figure also excludes fraud and computer misuse, though the Prime Minister did not make that clear.

If fraud and computer misuse are counted in total crime as they should be, total crime in fact increased by 14% between the year ending September 2019 and the year ending September 2021[1].

The ONS bulletin quite properly includes fraud and computer misuse in total crime. Those offences are then separated out in part to allow comparison with the long term data series and in part to be able to show that the sharp rise in fraud and computer misuse, as measured via the Telephone-operated Crime Survey for England and Wales, “more than offset the reductions seen for other types of crime”.

You asked about the claimed relationship between the Beating Crime Plan and trends in crime. The ONS assessment, as argued in the bulletin, is that the pandemic and associated restrictions were the main drivers of recent trends in the relevant types of crime, and it would have been helpful if the Home Office news release had acknowledged this.

We have written to the Home Office and to the offices of the Prime Minister and Home Secretary to draw their attention to this exchange.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

[1] Crime in England and Wales: year ending September 2021, Office for National Statistics

Related links:

Alistair Carmichael MP to Sir David Norgrove – Use of official crime statistics by Prime Minister, Home Secretary and Home Office

Kit Malthouse to Sir David Norgrove – Crime Statistics

Dear Sir David,

I am writing to express my concern over comments made by the Leader of the Opposition, Sir Keir Starmer QC MP, in the House of Commons, to the media and on social media on Wednesday 28 April 2021 and Thursday 29 April 2021.

During Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 28 April 2021 Sir Keir claimed that ‘crime is going up’. He repeated this claim in a clip to the media and finally he tweeted a video of his remarks in the Chamber.

These claims are false and conflict with official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) is the most reliable measure of trends in crime. Between the year ending June 2019 and the beginning of lockdown (year ending March 2020), the Survey estimated a significant 9% reduction in crime. Underlying this were significant falls in theft (12%) and criminal damage (13%).

Since the pandemic began, the ONS quarterly publication has reported based on findings from a Telephone-operated Crime Survey for England and Wales (TCSEW) and police recorded crime. The ONS have made clear that TCSEW estimates are not directly comparable with estimates derived from the face-to-face Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).

The public have a right not to be misled, especially with regard to a subject as emotive and important as crime. I request that you investigate the Leader of the Labour Party’s claims and issue the necessary censure should you decide that his comments were misleading.

Yours sincerely,

Kit Malthouse

Minister of State in the Home Office and Ministry of Justice

Related links:

Letter from Sir David Norgrove to Sir Keir Starmer – Crime Statistics

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Kit Malthouse – Crime Statistics

 

Response on ONS Domestic Abuse Statistics

Dear Minister,

The UK Statistics Authority was asked by the Men and Boys Coalition to consider your use of statistics on domestic violence in a parliamentary debate on 16 July. I enclose a copy of our reply to the Coalition.

I welcome plans by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to in future include figures on the sex of perpetrators of partner abuse against men and women separately.

I am copying this letter to the Acting Chief Statistician at the Home Office, the Director of Public Policy Analysis at ONS, and the UK Statistics Authority’s Director General for Regulation.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

 

Related Links:

Ed Humpherson to Dan Bell (October 2019)

Dan Bell to Ed Humpherson (August 2019)