Welsh Government

Sir Robert Chote to Eluned Morgan MS – COVID-19 Lessons learnt

Dear Minister,

I am pleased to write to you commending the Office for Statistics Regulation’s report that was published today. 2022 update: lessons learned for health and social care statistics from the COVID-19 pandemic is an insightful analysis of the last year of the pandemic.

In its 2021 report, the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) highlighted the vital role that data and statistics played during the pandemic in supporting individuals to reach informed decisions. It has been possible to meet the increased analytical demands of the pandemic thanks to the extraordinary, dedicated efforts of the statisticians and analysts in your department. For that, I thank them all.

In its 2022 update, much like the UK’s health and care services, OSR has found a statistical system which is transitioning from pandemic crisis mode to living with COVID-19. While the intense analytical demands of the pandemic have eased, a real challenge is maintaining some level of analysis relating to COVID-19 while publishing new statistics to measure emerging issues, such as new disease outbreaks, and re-invigorating ‘business as usual’ statistics, such as those on NHS performance and the health and social care workforces. In the context of the increased demands on producers, we have identified four key areas which support the production of statistics which serve the public good:

Horizon scanning – understanding what information people need
Availability – ensuring data and statistics are made available in an accessible and transparent way
Collaboration – sharing data, plugging gaps and improving coherence and comparability
Communication – continuing to innovate and communicate statistics in a clear and engaging way to a wide range of users

We have seen many improvements to health and social care statistics over the last year. We have found a better understanding of the need for transparency of numbers used publicly by governments and are encouraged by new statistics published on topics of high public interest and ongoing efforts to fill existing data gaps. However, there is still progress to be made against several recommendations in our 2021 report, such as improving, where possible, the comparability of statistics across the UK and overcoming barriers to data sharing.

There are developments relating to health and social care data in Wales which we consider will support producers in their ability to provide timely information and analysis to support future decision-making. The ongoing transformation of health and social care using digital and data services presents several opportunities to improve the development and effectiveness of statistics, including the development of the National Data Resource and a strategic approach to social care data. I look forward to the successful implementation of these strategies, and trust that sufficient resource will be made available to turn new operational data into published statistics.

Yours sincerely

Sir Robert Chote

Sir David Norgrove to Baroness Eluned Morgan MS – OSR Covid Lessons Learned report

Dear Minister,

Today, the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has published its review; Improving health and social care statistics: lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic resulted in a huge public appetite for data and statistics. We have seen a remarkable response from producers of data and analysis to meet this demand, in many cases overcoming challenges which would previously have seemed insurmountable. The pandemic has also drawn attention to existing challenges for health and social care statistics. I am sure you would agree that the health system needs both to learn lessons and to build on its achievements in this area.

The pandemic also highlighted the importance of transparency, so essential for building public confidence in statistics and in government decisions based on them. When statistics and data are quoted publicly by ministers or senior officials, they should be supported by a publication which provides the data in an accessible form with appropriate explanations of context, limitations, and sources.

The pandemic highlighted the need for statistics to inform society about public health. In Wales we saw strong analytical collaboration between Welsh Government and Public Health Wales. There is an opportunity to build on the statistical function at Public Health Wales to ensure that the full public value of its work is realised.

I would be happy to meet with you to discuss these topics further.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Kirsty Williams, Education Minister, on school expenditure

Dear Ms Williams,

Thank you for your update on the meeting between the Welsh Government’s Chief Statistician and NASUWT officials.

Comparisons of school expenditure between England and Wales are complicated. That makes it the more important that, as with all figures used within public debate, the figures should be transparent and the sources verifiable.

Following the meeting between the Chief Statistician and NASUWT officials, we have been made aware that the NASUWT are producing new improved analysis. We would encourage NASUWT to base its revised analysis on the principles set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

In the absence of Welsh and English official statistics prepared on the same basis, we agree with your officials that the analysis carried out by the IFS currently provides the most robust comparison. Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation has written to the Chief Statistician on this matter today and I enclose a copy of his letter.

I am copying this letter to the Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Education, Suzy Davies AM.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Response on use of statistics on school expenditure in Wales

Dear Ms Williams,

Thank you for your letter of 6 December about comparisons by the Welsh Conservatives of school funding in England and Wales.

I am pleased to hear that your officials are in discussions with NASUWT, the source of the estimates in question. The different funding arrangements in the two countries mean there is likely always to be different views on the best estimate, which makes it the more important that the basis for estimates used in public debate is transparent and accessible to all. We hope your discussions with NASUWT will provide an opportunity to agree on the most robust methods as well as ensure greater transparency in its approach to estimating comparisons between England and Wales.

I am copying this letter to the Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Education, Suzy Davies AM.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Use of statistics on school expenditure in Wales

Dear Sir David

I am writing to you concerning the continued use of outdated and misleading statistics by the Welsh Conservatives concerning expenditure on schools in Wales and a perceived gap in school funding between England and Wales.

This includes occasional references to the last official statistics produced on this matter, dated back to 2010-11 financial year. Some references use unverified and misleading statistics produced by the Teacher’s Union NASUWT. I attach a selection of examples whereby the Welsh Conservatives have variously used different figures.

This is a complex area and the changes in school funding arrangements by the UK Government and the rollout of academies and free schools over the last decade have meant it has been difficult to compare expenditure on schools. Welsh Government has not changed its approach and our official statistics on per pupil expenditure have continued to have been published consistently, transparently and openly. Nevertheless, because the data for England were no longer available on a consistent basis, the Chief Statistician made a decision in 2012 to stop producing a comparison of the position with England and hence no new official statistics have been published since then – this blogs refers.

However, more recently the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have been able to produce new analysis on trends in per pupil expenditure in England and Wales. This used a new data source for England which provided the means for this analysis to be undertaken across maintained schools and academies. The IFS suggest that per pupil funding has fallen faster in England than Wales. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) annual report on school spending shows that whilst spending per pupil in Wales is estimated to have fallen by 6% in real-terms between 2009-10 and 2018-19, this is a smaller cut than in England and Northern Ireland. In England spending per pupil has fallen by 8% or more in real-terms, where pupil numbers have risen. As a result the IFS analysis estimates that over the last decade the gap in spending between England and Wales has narrowed.

The IFS consulted the Chief Statistician on their approach to this analysis and he advises me that their work is the best possible approach that can be taken to this issue, particularly when considering trends over time. As a result of these discussions, the latest Welsh Government statistical release on school budgets in Wales included a summary of the IFS work.
He has also sought a meeting with NASUWT to discuss the figures that I mentioned in the second paragraph, which we hope can help us understand the methodology they have used.
I am as keen as anyone to ensure we have a sound and robust evidence base on per pupil expenditure, and to understand how the financial position of our schools compare with the rest of the UK. This is why I have recently commissioned an urgent review into how much funding is required to fund schools sufficiently in Wales, which will be taken forward independently of government.
The IFS work clearly suggests the gap has narrowed since 2010-11 and as a result it is wholly inappropriate for the Welsh Conservatives to continue to use figures that either pre-date those trends, or in the case of NASUWT data figures that are unverified without transparent methods.

The continued use of these outdated or unverified statistics is having an impact on public debate in Wales at a critical time for public services. I would be grateful for your views on this matter and whether you agree the use of data dating back to 2010-11, or unverified estimates, on this matter should cease.

Yours sincerely

Kirsty Williams AC/AM
Y Gweinidog Addysg
Minister for Education

Response on estimates of inbound visitors

Dear Ms Pow, Ms Hyslop and Lord Elis-Thomas,

Thank you for your letter of 13 August in which you highlight concerns about the quality of estimates from the International Passenger Survey for inbound visitors. You pointed to the importance of these estimates in enabling you to monitor and evaluate existing policy and develop new strategies.

Clearly you must be able to rely on these estimates. The Office for Statistics Regulation has committed to bringing forward its planned review of Overseas Travel and Tourism statistics. The review will include consideration of the issues you have raised in your letter with a view to publishing findings by the end of September 2019. This review will build on the compliance check published in October 2018 which looked at the transparency and communication of International Passenger Survey methods changes, delays and quality information.

OSR will engage with your officials to ensure the review reflects the concerns you have identified.

I am copying this letter to Iain Bell, Deputy National Statistician for Population and Public Policy.

Yours sincerely,

Sir David Norgrove

Sir Robert Chote to Eluned Morgan MS – COVID-19 Lessons learnt

Related links

Sir David Norgrove to Baroness Eluned Morgan MS – OSR Covid Lessons Learned report

Response from Sir David Norgrove to Kirsty Williams, Education Minister, on school expenditure

Related links:

Response on use of statistics on school expenditure in Wales

Related Links:

Use of statistics on school expenditure in Wales

Related Links:

Response on estimates of inbound visitors