• 10:30 – Introduction
• 10:35 – Actions update
• 10:40 – Labour Market Review Subgroup Update
• 10:50 – Future of Population and Migration Statistics Update
• 11:00 – EAP209 Evaluating the DPM estimation method (Template Model Builder (TMB)) using a simulation study
• 12:00 – EAP210 Geospatial methods for Small Area Population Estimates: Proof of concept
• 12:45 – Break
• 13:30 – EAP211 Recommendation on approach for measuring British Nationals
• 14:30 – EAP212 Recommendation on the approach for estimating long-term international migration of EU nationals from 2021 onwards
• 15:30 – Any other business

Panel members

• Sir Bernard Silverman (Chair)
• Carl Emmerson
• Natalie Shlomo
• Nik Lomax
• Oliver Duke-Williams

Office for National Statistics

• Owen Abbott
• Sarah Henry
• Mary Gregory
• Salah Merad (ONS Presenter)
• Duncan Elliott (ONS Presenter)
• Aidan Metcalfe (ONS Presenter)
• Matthew Plummer (ONS Presenter)
• Steve Denman (ONS Presenter)
• Alison Whitworth (ONS Presenter)
• Brendan Georgeson (ONS Presenter)
• Victoria Chenery (ONS Presenter)
• Laura Cheatham (ONS Presenter)
• Kim Turner (ONS Presenter)
• Rhys Owen-Williams (ONS Presenter)

Observers

• Sarah Crofts
• Charlie Wroth-Smith
• Valentina Gribanova
• Tim Green
• Sarah Long
• Cameron Hales
• Aidan Lo
• Penny Holborn
• Rob North
• Tom Clarkson
• Tom Tarling (ONS Secretariat)
• Beth Jones (ONS Secretariat)
• Jess Harris (ONS Secretariat)

1. Introduction (Sir Bernard Silverman)

1. The chair welcomed those in attendance, and relayed apologies from Ana Basiri.

2. Actions Update (Tom Tarling)

1. ONS updated on open actions from previous meetings of the panel.
2. Action 100, publishing previous MARP responses to the consultation, will be closed on publication of National Statistician’s Recommendation for the Future of Population and Migration Statistics (FPMS).
3. Action 105 and 106, providing papers to the Labour Market subcommittee are completed and closed.
4. Action 107 – Following panel feedback on PECADO at previous MARP, a data dive addressing this action is in progress. The chair encouraged ONS to reach out to him for further discussions sooner, ahead of data work being complete. [Post meeting note – this action is completed].
5. Action 108 – Ethnicity Harmonised Standard: This action is in progress with ONS meeting with stakeholders. Future updates will be brought to MARP.
6. It was noted that an update had been provided on a paper from a previous meeting: EAP199, Travel and Tourism Imputation.
7. An additional action was raised for ONS Secretariat to prepare and work with the chair on a draft of the annual report for 2023/24, and then to present a second draft of this report to the full panel.
8. The panel and ONS discussed a future MARP to be held in October 2024.

3. Labour Market Review Sub-Committee (Owen Abbott)

1. ONS updated on the sub-committee progress on the transition from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) to the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS).
2. ONS has provided relevant material to the sub-committee members Prof Ray Chambers and Prof James Brown.
3. A report has been provided to ONS and reviewed by the chair. The chair requested to review any amended versions, or format changes prior to future publication.
4. The LFS and TLFS are continuing to dual-run based on advice from the sub-committee. ONS is extending the work with subcommittee academics, looking at further weighting and design methods.
5. ONS added that a future item for the MARP panel will look at surveys being used to validate administrative data.

4. Future of Population and Migration Statistics (FPMS) update (Mary Gregory)

1. ONS updated on the programme, noting the likely publication timeframe for the National Statistician’s recommendation.
2. ONS commented that many papers previously shown to MARP are now publicly viewable, allowing for further feedback. ONS advised that they were seeking accreditation from the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) for components of the transformed system, starting with the Dynamic Population Model.
3. Papers considering coverage will be brought to MARP, and PECADO is also being reviewed following discussion at the 34^th MARP meeting.
4. ONS highlighted it aims to make code available publicly. The panel agreed this approach was sensible, as wider checking of code can catch mistakes and allow for feedback.
5. The panel requested that FPMS programme updates become a standing item at future MARP meetings, with challenges in areas such as characteristics being a wide topic. ONS agreed.

Action:

ONS to provide a standing update for FPMS at future MARP meetings, for the duration of the programme.

5. EAP209 Evaluating the DPM estimation method (Template Model Builder (TMB)) using a simulation study (Salah Merad, Duncan Elliott, Aidan Metcalfe)

1. ONS presented and confirmed key asks from MARP.
2. The panel noted their remit is assuring processes, rather than technical approaches. The panel agreed having reviews from Universities of Southampton and Manchester was beneficial.
3. ONS clarified the plan, assuming OSR accreditation, was to use DPM methodology to form the basis of mid-year estimates from summer 2025. There would be a trade-off between smoothing, and reduced model drift.
4. ONS commented the method had been developed in New Zealand, but wasn’t applied due to scaling issues. The ONS work has addressed scaling and adjusted other aspects of the method. The panel suggested an external specialist referee this work.
5. ONS proposed a further sub-committee for MARP be set-up to look at the DPM and associated work. The chair agreed, and encouraged members of MARP with interest to request an invitation to the sub-committee, which would focus on more technical detail. This would leave the strategic discussion for the main MARP panel.

Action:

ONS to circulate proposal and confirm membership of the sub-committee.

6. EAP210 Geospatial methods for Small Area Population Estimates: Proof of concept (Matt Plummer, Steve Denman, Alison Whitworth)

1. ONS presented a summary of the paper and confirmed the key asks of MARP.
2. The panel acknowledged this work was a proof of concept, and praised the paper.
3. The panel highlighted concerns with using external datasets pointing to differences between Valuation Office Agency (VOA) and Land Registry data. The panel also suggested exploring further approaches and establishing methods that produce confidence intervals.
4. House price, rental data and sales volume was suggested as potentially useful, with ONS already collecting such data for other statistics. ONS acknowledged existing methodology, data and relationships with suppliers existed for this.
5. The panel highlighted the value of weighting and coverage surveys, in making ONS resilient to changes in administrative data sources.
6. During this item, the panel discussed a standard for bibliographies for papers brought to MARP.

Action:

ONS to add guidelines to MARP papers to communicate, and standardise, need for bibliography.

7. EAP211 Recommendation on approach for measuring British Nationals (Brendan Georgeson, Victoria Chenery)

1. Presenting the item, ONS re-iterated the approach is to look at alternatives to the Internation Passenger Survey (IPS). One of these is the use of the Department for Work and Pension’s Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID).
2. There was discussion on the definition of a “British National” with the panel recognising this as being tricky and suggesting the legal definition be used. The chair provided a resource.
3. ONS confirmed there is a good quality of linkage between death registrations and National Insurance Numbers (NiNos).
4. Discussions on how RAPID recorded certain cases were had, with ONS seeking further discussions with DWP to clarify on understanding, to facilitate flagging rules and differentiating between cases.
5. Concerns around measurement of children where child benefit isn’t claimed was discussed, and on the process for His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) being updated.
6. The panel suggested using the data set shown as a source in a statistical framework, or microsimulation to estimate British Nationals. ONS noted a piece of work is examining this at an early stage, and that it will come to MARP in the future.

Action:

ONS is encouraged to use legal definition of a “British National” as a starting point to align definitions and statistics, and fully explain what is being measured in publications.

8. EAP212 Recommendation on the approach for estimating long-term international migration of EU nationals from 2021 onwards (Laura Cheatham, Kim Turner, Rhys Owen-Williams)

1. ONS presented and responded to panel comments.
2. The panel suggested a group of main interest were Irish Nationals who were not also British Nationals. The panel encouraged ONS to be very clear with who it was measuring, with a clear definition in any publications as to what is being measured.
3. ONS commented that is working closely with the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) to understand how their measurements differed.
4. The panel was concerned with EU national behaviour being modelled using the behaviour of Irish nationals, suggesting it introduced a very risky assumption. ONS agreed this was important to consider, evidence and revisit.
5. The panel suggested using age and sex in the imputation models. ONS agreed, noting it had the data for this, and would assess whether different imputation methods for arrivals and departures could be used, alongside refined methods.
6. The panel comments that a hybrid approach combining Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) and DWP’s RAPID could be considered. ONS agreed, adding it was examining bringing in record level data from DWP to explore linkage, and results of this would be brought to a future meeting of the panel.
7. Future work involving the Dynamic Population Model (DPM) could examine how cumulative errors in flows build up errors in population estimates. This could be brought to MARP.

9. Any other business

1. There was no additional business.

Actions list:

Action 109: Secretariat to share annual report draft with the chair, ahead of 30th September final copy aim, updating following this meeting.

Action 110: ONS to provide a standing update for FPMS at future MARP meetings, for the duration of the programme.

Action 111: ONS to circulate proposal and confirm membership of the DPM sub-committee.

Action 112: ONS is encouraged to use legal definition of a “British National” as a starting point to align definitions and statistics, and fully explain what is being measured in publications.

Action 113: ONS to add guidelines to MARP papers to communicate, and standardise, need for bibliography.