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Office for National Statistics correspondence to the Treasury Committee on labour market statistics

Dear Dame Meg,

As National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding to your letter of 21 November regarding the Labour Force Survey.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), as the UK’s National Statistical Institute (NSI) and largest producer of official statistics, delivers independent and relevant statistics and analysis, continuously responding and improving to ensure these are of high quality and meet user need. The ONS is delivering a programme of improvements to increase the quality of data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). While we are starting to see the positive impacts of these recovery efforts, our continued work to stabilise the data in partnership with key users is our highest priority. Alongside this, we are progressing our strategic solution to the international fall in survey response rates and sizeable inflationary impacts, through the online-first Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS).

Recovery of the LFS

The sharp fall in survey response rates, a long-term trend that rapidly accelerated during and after the pandemic period, has been a significant challenge in the UK as well as for other NSIs around the world. There are many reasons for this decline, including increased cautiousness around the sharing of personal information, declining trust in government and public institutions, a reluctance to have interviewers inside homes and increased challenges accessing secure/gated properties.

The LFS involves five ‘waves’ of data collection – an initial survey interview, then eligible households repeat the survey each quarter on four further occasions to track changes in employment over time. The voluntary nature of the UK’s LFS as well as its significant length (around 45 minutes per wave per household on average) have meant LFS response rates have been more heavily impacted than other countries.

We are acutely aware of the significance of reliable labour market statistics as a source of evidence for economic decision making and that some indicators are only available from surveys such as the LFS. We do not underestimate the challenges involved with the use of data to inform the decision making of central banks in times of uncertainty, as the 2023 Bernanke Review set out.

Following the disruption of the pandemic and a period of substantial inflationary impacts with difficult prioritisation decisions, the ONS worked to re-establish high quality survey data collection, by re-introducing face-to-face data collection survey by survey, re-training interviewers and re-establishing the operation. By 2023, it was evident that societal behavioural changes as a result of the pandemic had influenced the data collection environment and were contributing to the survey quality not recovering at the rate anticipated. At its lowest point in 2023, the LFS response rate was 17.4% (UK, including imputed cases). This had significant implications for the quality of the statistics derived from the survey, resulting in the temporary suspension of the LFS as a source of labour market data in October 2023. Due to the dwindling response rates, we introduced the LFS Recovery Plan to restore the quality of its estimates, focusing on data collection improvements and methodological enhancements. The complexity of the survey and issues meant the interventions would take time to fully embed in the survey and subsequently improve the quality of the estimates.

As part of data collection improvements, we increased the targeted sample by over 50% in January 2024 from 16,700 to 25,800 new households each quarter, returning it to the levels adopted in the aftermath of the pandemic period. We increased face-to-face interviewing and the incentives for participation from £10 up to £50, with a particular focus on Wave 1 responses (our initial collection with a household). As a result, the achieved sample is now 15,000 higher than at its lowest point, an increase in the overall UK response rate from 17.4% in Jul-Sep 2023 to 24.6% in Jul-Sep 2024. We are currently recruiting an additional 150 interviewers to further support Waves 2-5.

Methodological enhancements have focused on the weighting of survey results to support quality. Weighting utilises population projections and estimates to ensure data collected from only a sample of the population produces outputs that are representative of the entire population. Population projections are usually provided once every two years but during this period they were impacted by the unusual migration pattern following the pandemic and the effects of changes to the immigration system following the UK’s exit from the EU. Therefore, the ONS introduced an additional partial re-weighting in February 2024 as well as for December 2024. LFS quarterly person data has been reweighted back to 2019 using updated population numbers. An article to illustrate the impact was published on 3 December 2024 and full results will be released on 17 December 2024. Reweighted two-quarter longitudinal LFS person outputs are expected in spring 2025. A more complete reweighting of all LFS data will follow during 2025/26, as well as Annual Population Survey (APS) data which makes use of LFS responses and additional sample boosts to deliver regional and local level statistics.

As noted above, the wave nature of LFS means data collection and methodological improvements take time to feed through fully into the estimates. Autumn 2024 has seen significant volatility and we have supported users to navigate the data uncertainty in this interim period. This includes being clear on our website, social media and broadcast media interviews on the data limitations and how they affect the use and interpretation of LFS estimates. Our expanded commentary recommends that, at this time, users make full use of all available data sources when assessing the labour market, such as HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) data on the number of people on payrolls and the number of workforce jobs, which the ONS has developed and published. We highlight that these sources are currently likely to be providing a better read of recent trends in employment, particularly of employees.

Acknowledging the complexities of the challenges and the vital importance of these statistics to users, we have strengthened our engagement with stakeholders and channels for external challenge, support and expertise to inform our approach. We introduced a new monthly Technical Engagement Group in October 2023 with members from the Bank of England (BoE), HM Treasury (HMT), Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) to provide a forum to discuss upcoming developments and improvements in an open and transparent manner, which is providing invaluable input and feedback on our plans for both LFS and TLFS. In addition, in June 2024, we established a Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Labour Market Statistics chaired by Professor Jonathan Portes with representation from academics, think tanks, core government organisations and the Devolved Administrations, to provide independent advice and guidance on the production, publication, uses and application of labour market statistics and their technical aspects.

One focus has been on exploring how survey response challenges might be introducing potential bias in the LFS estimates, in particular for young people and ethnic minorities. This was considered at the Stakeholder Advisory Panel on 24 October 2024 and will be further addressed in a special session later this month that will also be attended by members of the Technical Engagement Group to assess whether any further methodological actions are necessary. We plan to extend our work on the coherence of key labour market data sources, with a further publication planned in the new year.

In summary, progress has been made in recovering the LFS with the achieved sample now significantly higher and the incorporation of the latest population information into the estimates. The major changes we have made to the LFS will be fully included through all five of the survey waves by the first quarter of next year, which will inform the LFS estimates for publication in May 2025.

Progress on the TLFS

Our long-term solution to falling response rates and quality challenges on the LFS is the development of an online-first evolution of the LFS called the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS). The ambition of the TLFS is to improve the quality of our labour market statistics, provide a more adaptive and responsive survey to meet user needs and enhance respondent experience. While the online-first nature of the survey enables a far larger sample size than the LFS, to ensure quality of the survey and reduce bias, ONS field force still visit 3,855 addresses a week on the TLFS to encourage them to complete the survey, referred to as ‘knock-to-nudge’.

The ONS started a full parallel run of the TLFS alongside the LFS in October 2023 to determine whether the performance of the survey met operational and statistical quality criteria. Compared with the LFS, in this pilot the TLFS provides a larger achieved sample (quarterly datasets include more than double the number of people than LFS), a higher response rate at every wave (40% compared to 36% at Wave 1) and the potential for more stable weighted outputs. However, there was bias in response towards older age groups, higher levels of partial responses compared with the LFS, and quality issues with the online response to some more complex variables such as respondents’ occupation and the industry in which they work.

The analysis of the parallel run data for headline labour market outputs demonstrates differences in headline labour market outputs between the two surveys. While some of this difference is expected (e.g. the TLFS uses the latest labour market definitions and updated methods which differ from those on the LFS), we have a strand of work to further account for the differences and identify adaptations, working with users to understand the implications for outputs and manage how data are used in their own systems.

As part of our open approach and bringing in of external challenge and expertise around the survey design complexities, the ONS has enhanced the role of the Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP). Through MARP, we commissioned Professors Chambers and Brown to undertake a methodological and design review of the TLFS in April 2024. This review recommended new work on a shorter online survey with the capacity for designed modular additions, as well as the need to continue the parallel run for five quarters to assess how the surveys captured seasonal variations in the labour market. Based on this review and feedback from both internal and external users, in July 2024 we announced an extension of the parallel run of the LFS and TLFS and plans to test further design improvements within the TLFS.

Since July we have completed a series of discrete online design tests to assess the impact of a shorter TLFS questionnaire that aims to reduce average household completion time from 37 minutes to around 15 minutes. The test also included questionnaire changes to address bias, rates of partial response and collection of complex variables, as well as the use of a QR code to ease citizen response.

Early indications show positive outcomes from the design tests with some areas for development. We are now conducting a thorough evaluation and reviewing the content of the shorter survey to ensure it meets key labour market requirements whilst reducing respondent burden as much as possible. Pending evaluation of the test activity, an examination of our assumptions and engagement with our expert groups, there are several scenarios for when we are able to transition from using the LFS to using the TLFS, involving the implementation of the shorter survey and further periods of parallel run. Therefore, we cannot yet set out a firm timetable for transition but will layout potential timetables in quarter one 2025. While one scenario based on a shorter questionnaire is 2027, my ambition is to transition in 2026, with the timings being determined in collaboration with key users to ensure the TLFS meets their quality and system needs.

The development of the TLFS has provided a continuous opportunity for the ONS to learn and refine how it delivers this complex transformation project. In summer 2024, the ONS conducted an internal lessons learnt exercise including historical cultural issues. Our colleagues are committed and passionate about producing high quality labour market statistics and the exercise provided colleagues with the opportunity to contribute views with candour from across the totality of the project. A summary of the lessons learnt and the initial actions taken to address the issues is at Annex A. In particular, we strengthened technical and methodological leadership, including appointing two experienced senior colleagues to shore up analytical leadership capability. Additionally, the Director for Methodology is supporting oversight on the conditions for quality and the journey towards stability of the TLFS. We also raised awareness of channels that colleagues can use to escalate known issues and are promoting a culture that encourages the surfacing of risks and invites constructive challenge. While the report suggested a pause in development of the TLFS, the critical nature of the statistics and the decisions that flow from them means we are redoubling our efforts to improve and roll out the TLFS as soon as is practicable, with a continued focus on the wider issues raised.

International comparisons and further development

While some other countries do achieve higher response rates on their equivalent labour market surveys, many NSIs have also seen falling response rates in recent years. We are continually engaging with, and learning from, partner NSIs to boost response rates and reduce any response bias. The insights we receive from these NSIs are contributing to the ongoing evolution of TLFS design, specifically on the shorter survey, which harnesses the benefit of large-scale, online, self-completion.

The Independent Review of the UK Statistics Authority (the Authority) conducted by Professor Denise Lievesley earlier this year recommended that the Authority explore the consequences of mandatory completion of the LFS. Mandating would align with the census and business surveys and is akin to the civic duty of undertaking jury service. A move to mandating responses to the LFS would require legislation (as is the case for census and business surveys) and is not something the ONS can consider alone. We welcome a broader national conversation about the importance of citizens being represented in the country’s statistics and championing the value of data as critical national infrastructure.

Given the strategic challenges that surveys are facing, we are establishing a new Surveys Innovation Hub, expanding our portfolio of surveys research and are continuing to work closely with the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funded Survey Futures project. On Survey Futures, the ONS is collaborating with other survey providers to explore the feasibility of using names and contact details to cross-reference with our address database to make contacting individuals easier. We are conducting a suite of research to improve our ability to reach the public, build trust and gain consent to overcome barriers to completion of our household surveys. We are also exploring the use of alternative data sources in our end-to-end survey design, for example enabling us to adapt our samples and focus operational effort on contacting those population sub-groups that are typically less likely to engage in our surveys.

The common picture across many countries, and the UK’s survey sector (public and private) as a whole, of falling response rates suggests that we can no longer rely on surveys alone. While there are some questions that only can be accurately answered by large surveys, such as the distinction between unemployment and inactivity, we have already begun publishing other data sources to build a fuller picture of the labour market. The Integrated Data Service (IDS), a functioning cross-government hub that allows full value to be extracted from data collected across the public sector and beyond, will seek to identify, share and link securely these and other data sources across government to further build our understanding of the labour market. LFS data and HMRC tax data (PAYE RTI) were linked through the IDS in November 2024 and this integration of survey data and administrative sources will be used to inform labour market quality assurance and survey methods. More effective sharing of de-identified administrative data across government will further improve the quality of statistics and evidence to support national and local decision making.

Working in partnership with our key stakeholders, and learning from other countries, we will extend our exploratory work on integrating survey and administrative data to produce a holistic picture of the UK’s labour market. This includes our plans to produce Labour Market Accounts, which aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the UK’s labour market through the optimum balance of survey and administrative data.

Resourcing

As with other parts of the public sector, the Authority’s funding position throughout the Spending Review 2021 (2022/23 to 2024/25) has been one of constraint overall, including flatlined core funding, ring-fenced budgets, and substantial inflationary impacts. Operating within our budget in this context has led to difficult prioritisation decisions and the need to deliver efficiencies and cost savings across the organisation. Our efficiency and cost savings figure was approximately £11.4m for 2022/23 and £17.8m for 2023/24. We plan to deliver an estimated £12m in efficiencies and cost savings in 2024/25 taking the cumulative impact for the Spending Review 2021 (SR21) period to over £40m.

The work to prioritise activity and reduce costs started in 2022/23 and continued through 2023/24, impacted by the cost of increased colleague salaries and a notable inflationary effect on our cost bases, including through surveys. Significant cost saving measures to remain affordable, the need to dual run the LFS and TLFS and restrictions from ring-fenced budgets curtailed our ability to use the totality of organisational funding and dedicate the resources we would have ideally wanted to our social surveys operation.

The survey recovery plan in late 2023 set out how existing resources could be utilised to pivot to support the LFS/TLFS and other surveys to start to redress the downward trend. Given the skills and capabilities required to drive improvements and the scarcity of options, we further prioritised within the survey workforce. Simultaneously we set out our plans and a request for additional finance to HMT for the Surveys Quality Recovery Plan 2023/24, which was supported and the funding made available.

Prioritisation of surveys recovery formed a key component of our recent Spending Review 2025 (SR25) Phase 1 submission. Whilst funding for 2025/26 will remain at the same level as 2024/25 (flat cash) as part of our financial objectives we have been supported in significantly reducing the level of ring-fenced funding we receive as a proportion of the whole. This added flexibility will be vital for us in being able to pivot resources at pace in future and enables us to implement an LFS sustainability plan.

Throughout 2023 and 2024, the ONS’s three highest field data collection priorities have consistently been the labour force surveys (LFS and TLFS parallel run) and the Living Cost and Food Survey. Our decisions to not reapply for the contract to collect data for the National Survey for Wales for the Welsh Government in March 2023 and reduce interviewer resource on its financial surveys in February 2024 (including pausing the Survey of Living Conditions) reflect these priorities. Other surveys have also seen reduced support.

The additional investment allocated in the last year to recover the LFS and the ONS’s wider social surveys is enabling significant field interviewer recruitment. Our permanent face-to-face field interviewer community has grown from 477 (Dec 2023) to 544 (Nov 2024). Within the same timeframe we have also built up an agency workforce of 130 temporary field staff specifically to complete the ‘knock-to-nudge’ function on the TLFS, which releases an equivalent number of fully trained interviewers to support recovery across ONS’s social surveys. Compared with the 145 interviewers in October 2023, in the last month 275 face-to-face interviewers have worked on the LFS (across all waves). Recruitment continues, with a further 28 interviewers confirmed to start on the LFS in December to support improvements in Waves 2-5 response and recruitment ongoing to deliver the full requirement of 457 face-to-face interviewers across all LFS waves by the end of March 2025.

As an organisation, we fully comprehend the critical importance of high-quality labour market statistics and recognise the significant impact the response challenges are having on the reliability of data informing our key outputs. We are confident that by continuing to seek out internal and external challenges and expertise, progressing the improvements already made and delivering the solutions outlined above in partnership with our key stakeholders, we will be able to recover the quality issues with the LFS and continue our progress towards transition to the TLFS. Achieving a successful outcome from these programmes of work is the top priority for the ONS.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

 

Office for National Statistics correspondence to the Welsh Parliament’s Finance Committee on quarterly growth data for Wales

Dear Mr Griffiths, 

Thank you for your letter of 4 October related to quarterly growth data for Wales. 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) made the decision to pause the publication of our Quarterly Regional GDP (QRGDP) publication due to concerns raised by users regarding the quality and volatility of the estimates. This was announced on 7 July 2023, after the last publication and estimates were released on 18 May 2023.  

Before announcing the pause to the QRGDP publication, the ONS discussed the issue with the Welsh Government, as well as other stakeholders. Recognising the potential data gap caused by pausing QRGDP, we agreed to continue with the production and delivery of the Welsh Short-Term Indicators (WSTI) to provide quarterly data for Wales. WSTI and QRGDP differ in terms of source data, the coverage (QRGDP also covers English regions) and the constraining process (where QRGDP is constrained to Annual Regional Accounts and Quarterly National Accounts) to ensure consistency. 

These estimates had previously been funded entirely by the Welsh Government, but we agreed to fund the production and analysis of these estimates, with Welsh Government funding the data collection element, from 2023 Q2 delivery onwards. WSTI has continued to be delivered on a quarterly basis during the pause of QRGDP and is published on the Welsh Government website. 

In the meantime, the ONS have been working with the independent Economic Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) to review the methods for QRGDP and how these data are aligned to national estimates. This review is nearing completion, and we will consider its findings with a plan to bring back QRGDP as soon as is feasible. The ONS will keep this Committee, as well as other stakeholders, updated during this time to provide details on progress and time scales as they become clearer. 

Yours sincerely, 

Ian Diamond, National Statistician

Office for National Statistics follow up correspondence to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on labour market statistics

Dear Lord Bridges,

Firstly, David and I wanted to thank you for the opportunity to discuss labour market statistics with the Committee on 23 April. During the session we promised to follow-up on several areas of interest to the Committee.

How household composition has changed since before COVID-19

During our discussion, we said that we would revert with further information we have on how household composition has changed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was in response to a point raised by Lord Blackwell who asked if there is any evidence that more young people are living at home with their parents since the start of the pandemic.

The ONS produces a report called Families and Households in the UK. This release includes tables looking at the prevalence of different types of households, including the number of households with dependent children and households that have non-dependent children only. This report does not show a significant change in the mix of households by type or size since the start of the pandemic. There has been a recent change in family type between couples being married or not married when there are no dependent children in the family, with unmarried cohabiting couples slowly on the increase when there are no dependent children. However, this does not affect the household composition relating to non-dependent children. Longer term trends can also be found in analysis comparing the 2021 Census with the 2011 Census.

Economic inactivity in Scotland

Whilst discussing how inactivity varied between the nations of the UK, Baroness Liddell asked for some further information on the economic inactivity picture in Scotland specifically.

The ONS publishes information on the comparative labour market situation in each of the regions and countries of the UK in its monthly report, Labour market in the regions of the UK. The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 years in Scotland who are economically inactive, tends to be one or two percentage points higher than the UK average, but generally moves in the same ways.

Of those who are economically inactive, Scotland tends to have a higher proportion than the UK of those who consider their main reason for inactivity to be long-term sickness or disability. Conversely, Scotland tends to have a lower proportion economically inactive because they are looking after the family or home. Scotland also has a higher proportion of the economically inactive who consider themselves to be retired. Scotland also has a lower proportion of men who are economically inactive due to being students than the UK as a whole, although the proportion of women is comparable.

International comparisons of economic inactivity

Baroness Wolf raised whether the United Kingdom could be considered an “international outlier” when it comes to economic inactivity. I wanted to provide some further detail on this point.

Even though the UK maintained relatively strong employment throughout the pandemic, the UK is the only country within the G7 with employment rates below pre-pandemic levels and economic inactivity rates above pre-pandemic levels.

The economic inactivity rates for France, Germany and Italy are well below pre-pandemic levels as well as those of Canada and the US. Further information is contained in the annex to this letter.

Please do let us know if any other questions, and if we can help the Committee further on either this topic or any of its other inquiries.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

 

ANNEX

International Summary

The UK maintains relatively strong employment within the G7 and all countries in the OECD dataset throughout 2021 and 2022. However, the UK remains the only G7 country with employment rates still below pre-pandemic levels (down 1.1%).

While the UK has seen unemployment rates above pre-pandemic levels for prolonged periods, it is now largely unchanged compared with pre-pandemic levels. Recently, the UK had seen the highest rise in unemployment since before the pandemic out of the G7 countries, however now we are down in 4th, with Japan, the United States and Canada all above their pre-pandemic levels. The other G7 countries are below their pre-pandemic unemployment rates.

Pre-pandemic, the UK had relatively low economic inactivity rates compared with other countries. It is now the only G7 country where the economic inactivity rate is still above pre-pandemic levels (1.1 percentage points above pre-pandemic rates).

Looking at it more broadly, the OECD members collectively have generally seen a growth in employment rate, and a decrease in unemployment and inactivity rates since the pandemic; with the UK performing in mostly the opposite direction to its fellow members.

OECD employment, unemployment and economic inactivity rates

EmploymentUnemploymentEconomic Inactivity
CountryPre-pandemic rate (Q4 2019)Q1 2024*ChangePre-pandemic Rate (Q4 2019)Q1 2024*ChangePre-pandemic Rate (Q4 2019)Q1 2024*Change
Canada74.675.00.55.75.90.220.820.0*-0.8
France66.768.3*1.68.27.5*-0.727.326.0-1.3
Germany75.877.3*1.63.23.1*-0.122.120.1*-1.9
Italy59.062.1*3.19.67.3*-2.334.632.9*-1.7
Japan78.179.11.02.32.50.220.018.7-1.3
United Kingdom76.175.0*-1.13.93.8*0.020.821.9*1.1
United States71.772.00.33.63.80.225.625.1-0.5
EU Average68.070.6*2.66.66.0*-0.627.024.8*-2.3

*Where Q1 2024 figures are unavailable, Q4 2023 figures have been used.

For comparability UK data shown here are sourced from the OECD and may differ from ONS published data as OECD do their own seasonal adjustment

Data are sourced from OECD – Employment is 15-64 (UK/USA is 16-64) and Unemployment is 15+ (UK/USA is 16+)

Office for National Statistics follow-up written evidence to the Welsh Affairs Committee inquiry on the impact of population change in Wales

Dear Mr Crabb,

I write following my appearance in front of your Committee on 6 December 2023 with my colleague Jen Woolford, as part of the Impact of Population Change in Wales inquiry, and your subsequent letter dated 22 February 2024. I have addressed the queries raised during the session and in the letter in turn.

Population Age and Economic Growth

During our discussion, the committee asked if a “Younger population always positively correlated with economic growth” and I agreed to share some further information on this topic.

There is evidence that average population age tends to be lower in cities and larger towns, and higher in smaller towns and rural areas.  For example, as outlined above the median population age of local authority districts in Wales range from 34.4 years in Cardiff in mid-2022, to 51.1 years in Powys. However, in terms of economic growth there is not a straightforward statistical relationship between population age (or type of area) and economic growthTo illustrate, the highest economic growth rates between 2011 and 2021, did not occur in Wales’ major cities (where population is youngest), but instead occurred in the local authorities of Pembrokeshire, Flintshire, and Merthyr Tydfil. The lowest economic growth, did occur in relatively rural local authorities with older populations, namely Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey and Powys.

The reason why there is not a direct correlation between age and economic growth is that there are a wide range of different factors that can influence economic growth. These will vary by place but can include, for example, an area’s industry mix, its levels of business investment, recent infrastructure improvements and changing consumer demands amongst many other factors.

Economic Inactivity

Rob Roberts MP asked me how the levels of economic inactivity in Wales compare to other parts of the UK.

Mr Roberts quoted that in Wales, 33.8% of working-age people were economically inactive because of long-term sickness. The figure of 33.8% shows that of those who were economically inactive, 33.8% were economically inactive due to long-term sickness, with the remaining 66.2% economically inactive for other reasons.

At the time of the quoted 33.8%, only 23.8% of the population of Wales aged 16 to 64 years was economically inactive. Of these 33.8%, or just over one third were economically inactive due to long-term sickness. Therefore, this represents 8.0% of the whole population aged 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive because of long-term sickness. For the period October 2022 to September 2023, 7.6% of the population of Wales aged 16 to 64 years were economically inactive because of long-term sickness.

Generally, Northern Ireland has the highest percentage of the population who are economically inactive because of long-term sickness, with recent rates in excess of 9% of the population aged 16 to 64 years. Wales tends to be in a group with Scotland, and the North East and North West of England with rates around 7-8.5%. Below this there is a group at around 5.5-6.5% consisting of Yorkshire and The Humber, and the East and West Midlands. Then the East of England, London, South East and South West have the lowest rates at around 4-5%.

Areas of Significant Population Change

During the session, it was discussed if there were any areas in Wales that stood out as having particularly significant levels of population change. Between mid-2011 and mid-2022, the local authority district in which the population is estimated to have increased the most is Newport, where the population increased by 10.8%. Cardiff (7.7%) and Vale of Glamorgan (5.4%) were the only other local authority districts in which population growth exceeded 5% over this period.

Between mid-2011 and mid-2022, there were six local authority districts in which the population is estimated to have decreased. These are Ceredigion (-4.9%), Blaenau Gwent (-4%), Gwynedd (-3.2%), Caerphilly (-1.5%), Isle of Anglesey (-1.2%) and Conwy (-0.9%).

Welsh Speaking Population Change

You asked what Census 2021 data indicated that the number of Welsh speakers in Wales is falling and any data that offers insight into changes in the Welsh speaking population. According to Census 2021, there were around 538,000 people aged three years or older reported as being able to speak Welsh in Wales, or 17.8% of the population.

This is the lowest percentage ever recorded in a census, driven largely by a decrease in reported Welsh speaking among children and young people. Although the percentage of the population able to speak Welsh decreased overall, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of people who can speak Welsh in the young adult groups (16- to 19-year-olds and 20- to 44-year-olds), with decreases in the older age groups.

The percentage of people aged three years or older who can speak Welsh fell between 2011 and 2021 in all of the 22 local authorities in Wales, except in Cardiff, the Vale of Glamorgan, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Merthyr Tydfil. Furthermore, all local authorities saw a decrease in the percentage of 3 to 15-year-olds reported as being able to speak Welsh between 2011 and 2021. The decreases for these age groups tended to be greater in areas with a lower density of Welsh speakers, such as in Blaenau Gwent, Newport and Torfaen.

Information about Welsh language skills in the census is based on a person’s self-assessment of their ability. In some cases, especially for children, Welsh language ability was reported by another person, for example, a parent or guardian. Census 2021 was held during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, on 21 March 2021. This followed periods of lockdown, remote learning for children and many people were working from home. It is not known how the pandemic may have impacted reported Welsh language ability (or perception of the Welsh language ability of others).

Alongside this letter, we have included a spreadsheet that details the change in the number and percentage of Welsh speakers by local authority and age band by comparing Census 2011 data to Census 2021 data.

Community Crisis Point

The Committee also asked us if the ONS has data indicators that can “identify definitively when a community reaches a crisis point”. Generally, this is a very complex question that ONS data alone could not answer. The topic and question would possibly be more holistically explored by local communities and academic experts in this field.

However, on the specific issue of second homes, our data can provide some insight. As part of Census 2021 the ONS has published data on the number of vacant and second homes in England and Wales. Unfortunately, this data is not comparable with 2011 data, so it is not possible to directly compare over time.

The Welsh Government regularly releases council tax dwellings statistics which include information about second homes and did an in-depth look at the variety of statistics available for Wales in the Second Homes: What does the data tell us? publication. ONS works closely with our colleagues in Welsh Government and elsewhere to provide data and statistics that can be used to provide evidence on priority housing topic areas such as second homes.

I hope this evidence is useful to the Committee. Please let us know if there is anything further we can provide as the inquiry continues, or on any other matter.

Yours sincerely,

Emma Rourke

Office for National Statistics correspondence to the Work and Pensions Committee on Defined Benefit pension scheme funding

Dear Sir Stephen,

Thank you for your letter of 13 December 2023 regarding Defined Benefit (DB) pension scheme funding. I am delighted to see the Committee’s interest in these statistics, following on from the work we have done to redevelop the survey. To take your questions in turn:

  1. Whether we have anything to add on the reasons identified by the PFF for the divergence between their estimates and on the value of DB scheme assets and those published from ONS’ Financial Survey of Pension Schemes (FSPS).

The current sample used in the survey began being used in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2022. However, as the FSPS is a quarterly survey, we have collected data from these schemes for more recent time periods, with our most recent bulletin covering data for January to March 2023. The FSPS captures data on asset allocations by type of instrument for private sector defined benefit and hybrid pension schemes, including estimates of LDI pooled fund holdings. These are included in the data tables published alongside the bulletin.

  1. Whether we plan on producing estimates of scheme funding levels in the future.

We collect and publish data on total assets, the net derivatives balance and non-pension entitlement liabilities but do not currently publish data on pension entitlement liabilities. We have an established work programme that recognises the demand for increased insight into UK funded occupations pensions and will explore the possibility of publishing these estimates to provide a full picture of scheme funding levels. This data will be subject to quality assurance and disclosure processes which may limit what we are able to publish.

  1. Whether the FSPS is able to estimate how much of the decline in asset values is due to market disruption, rather than a reflection of asset/liability matching strategies.

The FSPS also collects data on transactions, including acquisitions and disposals, realised and unrealised gains and losses by type of instrument, and investment income data which may provide additional insights into the questions asked by the Committee. We will explore the possibility of publishing this data, subject to quality assurance and disclosure processes. The survey does not directly ask pension schemes about their investment strategies.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if there are any further questions.

Yours sincerely,

Rebecca Richmond

Deputy Director, Financial Sector Accounts and Corporations

Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Women and Equalities Select Committee’s inquiry on the impact of the rising cost of living on women

Dear Ms Nokes, 

 I write in response to the Women and Equalities Select Committee’s call for evidence for their inquiry into the “Impact of the rising cost of living on women”.  

As the Committee is aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the  

largest producer of official statistics in the UK. We aim to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate. As the UK’s National Statistical Institute, the ONS produces a wide range of economic and social statistics, including the latest data and trends about the cost of living and how this is affecting people in the UK.

 Since UK consumer price inflation peaked in October 2022, the cost of living in the UK has been fluctuating. To assist the Committee in understanding how these changes have impacted women, we have prepared a written evidence submission that provides a broad overview of the major after-effects of changes to the cost of living in the UK. This includes looking at the main drivers of rising inflation, food and beverage costs, energy costs, rental prices, among others.  

 This submission also details how data collected in the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey shows women are more likely than men to report difficulties in paying their energy bills and the unlikelihood that they will be able to save money in the future. Alongside this, we have provided analysis of the regional and national differences in how the cost of living has changed in recent months, as well as specifically looking at how those from the lowest income households have felt the effects. 

Changing cost of living

UK consumer price inflation (the rate at which prices faced by consumers change) began accelerating in Spring 2021 and peaked to a 40-year high of 9.6% in October 2022. Although rates are now falling, they have remained high in the year since. In the year to September 2023 the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)was 6.3%, the lowest rate since March 2022.

The main drivers of rising inflation over the last two years have included food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and household services (including rental costs and household energy costs), and transport (including fuel costs).

For food and non-alcoholic beverages, the annual inflation rate to peaked at 19.2% in March 2023, the highest rate in over 45 years. Since then, the annual rate has eased for six consecutive months. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices showed the first month-on-month price reduction in September 2023.

Annual inflation for motor fuels has been negative since March 2023 reflecting the fall in fuel prices from a peak last year, but the drag on headline inflation has eased as fuel prices levelled off and then started to pick up. The price of motor fuels fell by 9.7% in the year to September 2023, compared with a fall of 16.4% in the year to August, reflecting falling petrol and diesel prices over the last year.

Gas and electricity prices rose at 1.7% and 6.7% respectively in the year to September 2023. Between June and July 2023, gas prices fell at record rates of 25.2%. This was largely because of the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) price cap in that month.

Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK have risen by 5.7% in the 12 months to September 2023. Recent analysis showed that private renters on a median household income could expect to spend 26% of their income on a median-priced rented home in England, compared with 23% in Wales and 25% in Northern Ireland, in the FYE 2022. Comparatively, housing purchasing affordability analysis has shown a clear pattern of house prices increasing faster than incomes and UK inflation. In the FYE 2022, for homes in England, average house price to household income ratio was 8.4 (meaning 8.4 years of median income to afford median house price) compared to 6.4 in Wales, 5.3 in Scotland and 5.1 in Northern Ireland.

The annual growth for regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8% in June to August 2023, according to the latest earnings data. This is similar to recent periods and one of the highest annual growth rates since comparable records began in 2001. In real terms (adjusted for inflation), regular pay rose by 1.1% on the year.

The gender pay gap, measured using the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), has been declining over time, and in April 2023 stood at 7.7%. The gap for full time employees is larger for those aged over 40, and for skilled trades occupations (15%) followed by process plant and machine operatives (14.3%). The gender pay gap is higher in all English regions than in Scotland (1.7%), Wales (5.6%) or Northern Ireland (negative 3.5%).

Insights from the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey

The ONS has published a variety of analysis on the impact of the rising cost of living across a range of personal characteristics including sex.

Most recently, the latest article in the roughly quarterly series, Impact of increased cost of living on adults across Great Britain, provided information from the ONS’s Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) during the period February to May 2023. The article detailed the proportion of adults in Great Britain reporting an increase in their cost of living, the actions they are taking as a result, or the proportion of adults experiencing difficulty affording household expenses (such as energy, rent or mortgage payments or food), by personal characteristics including sex, (see tables 1.1, 2.1, 3.1 and 4.1), household size (tables 1.12, 2.12, 3.12 and 4.12), parental status (tables 1.11, 2.11, 3.11 and 4.11) or region (tables 1.3, 2.3, 3.3 and 4.3).

Estimates in these tables show for example, that women (50%) appear more likely to report it was difficult (very or somewhat) to afford their energy payments than men (45%) and appeared less likely to report thinking they will be able to save in the next 12 months (36% among women, 44% among men).

Considering impacts on other groups of the population likely of interest to the committee, these estimates also show that whilst around 1 in 20 (5%) adults reported that in the past two weeks they had ran out of food and had been unable to afford more, this proportion appeared higher among groups including those; receiving support from charities (45%), living in a household with one adult only and at least one child (28%), receiving some form of benefits or financial support (21%), Mixed or Multiple ethnicity adults (14%), Black, African, Caribbean or Black British adults (13%), renters (14%) and disabled adults (9%).

Looking at regional differences amongst people with these and other characteristics has not been examined using this data source due to sample sizes being too small at this level of geography.

Regional and national differences

The ONS has published a variety of subnational statistics that reflect the geographic differences and the impact of the changing cost of living. Subnational data on this topic has largely focussed on housing, energy insecurity and food insecurity.

The latest article on private housing rental prices showed that prices paid by tenants has varied by English region and UK nation. Private rental prices in Northern Ireland increased by 9.3% in the 12 months to July 2023. This is higher than for other UK countries during the same period when prices rose by 5.2% in England, 6.5% in Wales and 5.7% in Scotland.

In the 12 months to September 2023, private rental prices rose by 5.6% in England, 6.9% in Wales and 6.0% in Scotland. Amongst the English regions, London’s annual rent price inflation was 6.2% in the 12 months to September 2023. This was the highest annual increase across the English regions. This was followed by the West Midlands where annual rent inflation (5.7%) was also above the England average annual rise (5.6%). The North East had the lowest annual increase at 4.7% during the same time period.

The ONS has also published recent analysis on monthly repayments for newly issued mortgages over the past year, because of rising interest rates increasing the cost of borrowing. The analysis is based on some key trends from our mortgage repayments calculator tool and includes variation across English regions and UK nations. Although mortgage rates differ, depending on the size of the loan relative to the value of the property being purchased, house price differences between regions has meant that increases to monthly mortgage payments have varied. In particular, London’s higher house prices have resulted in the largest monthly cost increases. Conversely, Northern Ireland’s lower house prices have resulted in the smallest nominal increases to monthly repayments.

In February 2023, the ONS published analysis on the characteristics of adults experiencing energy food insecurity in Great Britain. Adults in the North East, the East of England, and the North West were all more likely to report that they had experienced food insecurity than those living in London. The analysis also showed that there was no geographic difference between adults reporting some form of energy insecurity.

Impact on lowest income households

Between the FYE 2021 and FYE 2022, median household disposable income for the poorest fifth of the population decreased by 3.8% to £14,500; compared to 1.6% increase for richest fifth. The largest contribution to change in disposable income across all households is attributable to original income, driven by a decrease of 4.0% in the poorest fifth of people, compared with an increase of 5.4% in the richest fifth of people.

More specifically, the poorest fifth of people saw a 7.5% decrease in wages and salaries, while the richest fifth saw a 7.8% increase, and a UK wide increase of 3.2%. For the poorest fifth of people, income was further reduced by a real-term reduction in cash benefits of 2.6% (a nominal £80 increase) between FYE 2021 and FYE 2022, which was not fully offset by a reduction in taxes.

Table 1 shows the equivalised (accounting for household composition) household disposable incomes for some groups, as published within the Effects of Taxes and Benefits release. For non-retired one adult households (without children), where the household reference person was a woman, the mean household disposable income was significantly below the UK average. The disposable household income for non-retired one adult households with children was significantly below the mean UK average, however this group is not routinely split by sex of the household reference person. For retired one adult households (both with and without children), where the household reference person was a woman, the mean household disposable income was significantly below the UK average.

Table 1: Annual equivalised (accounting for household composition) household disposable income by household composition, UK, Financial Year Ending 2022

Equivalised Household disposable Income (£)
UK MeanOne adult household (all)One adult household (women)One adult household (men)
Non-retired Households (with and without children)41,200
Non-retired households (without children)39,50036,50041,800
Non-retired households (with children)23,100
Retired households (with and without children)30,90026,70025,00030,100

When comparing spending by the poorest fifth to the richest fifth for FYE 2022, the richest fifth of households’ total weekly expenditure was more than twice that of the poorest fifth of households (£811.20 and £329.80, respectively) . In comparison, mean household disposable income was six times greater in the richest fifth of households than the poorest fifth. The poorest fifth of households continued to spend the greatest proportion of their total expenditure (25%) on housing (net), fuel and power. This is largely because of spending on actual rentals for housing (24% of their total expenditure). Note, housing (net) does not include mortgage payments, this is because mortgage capital payments are not regarded as a consumable item in line and instead add to personal wealth, while interest payments are classified as “other” expenditure, in line with international standards.

We hope this provides some interesting insights for you and the rest of the Committee. Please do not hesitate to let us know if we can provide anything further.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Public Accounts Committee’s inquiry on Homes for Ukraine

Dear Dame Meg Hillier,

I write in response to the Public Accounts Committee’s call for evidence for their inquiry into Homes for Ukraine.

As the Committee will be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s National Statistical Institute and largest producer of official statistics. We aim to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate. This submission provides evidence from our Homes for Ukraine Survey, which we hope will be of assistance to the inquiry.

Evidence in this submission includes information on receipt of ‘thank you’ payments and the cost-of-living pressures on ability to provide support. Data on hosting duration and intended length of hosting shows that many hosts are providing longer-term accommodation, not just short-term emergency housing. While supporting guests search for their own accommodation, many hosts have experienced difficulties related to unaffordability of housing and lack of a guarantor. Satisfaction with support provided on the scheme to sponsors is quite high but over half have still found hosting challenging.

Background to the Survey


The ONS established the Homes for Ukraine Survey to address a lack of data about the characteristics, motivations, and attitudes of scheme hosts. This complements administrative data available from the Home Office, including arrival numbers. The ONS worked closely with the Home Office and the Department for Levelling-up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) to ensure delivery of timely and relevant analysis on this subject. ONS has consulted and shared its analysis with departments across government.

There have been three ONS-funded sponsor surveys collecting information from registered sponsors:

  • Survey 1 collected information 7 to 14 July 2022 (around 4 months since the scheme launched) from sponsors registered by 7 July 2022. It captured fundamental information from 17,702 sponsors early in the scheme.
  • Survey 2 collected information 21 to 28 November 2022 from 8,770 sponsors recontacted around 4 months since their first survey, with many approaching the end of the initial 6-month hosting period. This followed-up with sponsors to capture changing experiences, focus deeper on urgent issues, and inform evolving policy needs.
  • Survey 3 – collected information 10 to 21 August 2023 from sponsors registered by 8 August 2023. This captured information from 14,851 sponsors, some of whom had been surveyed before.

Analysis of the experiences of displaced Ukrainians who have entered the UK under the Ukrainian Humanitarian Schemes is published in the UK Humanitarian Response Insight Survey series. Generally, this analysis does not distinguish between type of visa scheme so is not included in this written evidence unless specified otherwise.

Most of the evidence presented in this submission is from the most up-to-date sponsor survey, Survey 3 (10 to 21 August 2023). Reference is made to previous surveys only where specified.

Funding provided for the scheme

Sponsors are eligible for a monthly payment from the UK government as a thank you for hosting and some English councils offer discretionary payments to ‘top-up’ thank you payments.

Payments to sponsors – monthly “thank you” payments

Data collected from Survey 3 showed 88% of current hosts reported having received ‘thank you’ payments; 67% received these on time and 21% had received payments but some monthly instalments were either late or missing. Some had not received payments (12%), but for most this was because the first payment was not yet due (5%).

After guests have been hosted in the UK for more than 12 months, monthly ‘thank you’ payments increase from £350 to £500. The following estimates on this page refer to data collected from hosts from Survey 3 in England only.

Most (72%) current hosts were aware of the increase in ‘thank you’ payments. Around 6 in 10 current hosts (64%) strongly or somewhat agree that this increase in payments encouraged them to host for longer. The majority (78%) are very or fairly satisfied with the engagement on the ‘thank you’ payments with their local council since their guests moved in.

Payments to sponsors – top-up “thank you” payments

Data collected from Survey 3, showed nearly half of current hosts in England (46%) received a discretionary top up payment from their local council. Over half (58%) of these said that this has incentivised them to continue hosting.

The English region with the highest proportion of current hosts who had received discretionary top up payments is the South East (66%), compared with the lowest proportion in the North East (9%).

Challenges and future risks

Sponsors are asked to host their Ukrainian guests for a minimum of 6 months. Early on there was some concern among members of the cross-government Russia-Ukraine Analysis Group (RUAG) that after 6 months many sponsors could stop hosting, causing Ukrainian guests to require alternative accommodation. However, data provided from the most recent and previous surveys suggested this risk was lower than first thought.

Hosting duration

Data collected from Survey 3 showed that most hosts (58%) were providing longer-term accommodation until their guests find alternative accommodation and 37% of hosts were providing more permanent accommodation. Only 3% described their hosting arrangement as short-term emergency accommodation.

Analysis from the UK Humanitarian Response Insight Survey (27 April to 15 May 2023) found most adults on the Homes for Ukraine scheme were very or fairly satisfied with their current accommodation (92%). This compares with 87% of adults on the Ukraine Family scheme.

Data collected in Survey 3 showed almost half (48%) of current hosts had been providing accommodation for guests for 12 months or more. Almost a third (31%) had been providing accommodation between 6 and 12 months. A similar proportion of current hosts had been providing accommodation for 3 to 6 months (10%) and less than 3 months (11%).

Hosting intentions

Analysis of data collected from Survey 3 revealed variation in how long current hosts intend to provide accommodation in total. Just over half (51%) reported 18 months or more, compared with 5% who intended to host for less than 6 months.

For the 5% of current hosts who intend for their current hosting arrangement to last under 6 months, the most common reason reported for the length of time was that they only intended to provide sponsorship for this period (25%).

For the 51% of current hosts who intend the current hosting arrangements to last 18 months or more, the most common reason reported for the length of time was that sponsors have built a strong relationship with the guests (67%).

An increase in value of monthly ‘thank you’ payments (54%) would encourage current hosts to continue to provide accommodation beyond their current intended period. However, 1 in 10 current hosts reported that “nothing” would encourage them to host for longer (10%).

Of those who don’t know how long they intend their current hosting arrangement to last (19%), the majority (72%) reported it was because they are unsure what their guests will want to do. Other reasons include needing more information on how extending sponsorship will work (24%).

Challenges helping guests access alternative accommodation

Data collected from Survey 3 showed that of those who are currently hosting guests and have helped them look for private rented accommodation, the majority (69%) reported experiencing barriers during the search. The most common barriers were that “Guests cannot afford to rent privately” (66%) and “Guests cannot provide a guarantor” (50%).

When asked what support they think guests need to help them move into private rented accommodation, or to find independent living arrangements, the most common types of support reported by sponsors were:

  • General information on how to rent in the UK (77%)
  • Financial support (77%)
  • Employment support (66%)

Difficulties experienced during scheme involvement

Current hosts were asked whether they experienced any difficulties during their involvement in the scheme. Data collected in Survey 3 showed that around 7 in 10 (72%) of hosts reported experiencing difficulties.

The difficulty most reported was uncertainty about what will happen to guests after sponsorship ends (38%), followed by difficulties when helping guests with visa applications (25%) and then sponsor application difficulties (19%).

Of the 15% of current hosts who reported difficulties helping guests register with GPs or NHS services, the most common difficulties experienced were the “availability of local services” (74%) and “appointment wait times” (35%).

Interpersonal challenges between guests and hosts

Data collected from Survey 3 showed almost 6 in 10 (58%) current hosts found aspects of hosting challenging.

A quarter (25%) of current hosts reported language barriers as a hosting challenge. Cultural differences between themselves and their guests (16%) and sharing a living space (15%) also made hosting challenging.

Satisfaction with scheme support

Data collected from Survey 3 showed that, of current hosts, previous hosts or those who have guests due to move in, over 6 in 10 (66%) are very or fairly satisfied with the overall support they were offered as a sponsor.

Data collected from Survey 2 suggests just over half of sponsors involved in the scheme were very or fairly satisfied with the management of the scheme (53%) and the communications for the scheme (52%)

Data collected from Survey 3 showed around 6 in 10 sponsors (59%) found accessing information or support regarding the Homes for Ukraine scheme very or fairly easy. This increased from 45% reported in Survey 2 data.

Data collected from Survey 3 showed of current hosts, previous hosts and those who have guests due to move in, most (91%) thought additional support would be useful for sponsors or hosts.

The types of additional support which they reported would be useful included:

  • support with helping guests find employment (46%),
  • support with administrative tasks for guests (45%)
  • support with helping guests find their own accommodation (42%).

Cost of living pressures

Data collected from Survey 3 showed the majority (67%) of current hosts said that the rising cost of living is affecting their ability to provide support.

The most reported additional costs incurred for current hosts were utility costs, such as the cost of fixing things around the property (85%), food costs (46%) and transport costs (45%).

We hope this submission is useful for the Committee’s inquiry. Please let us know if we can provide anything further.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

Office for National Statistics correspondence with the Environmental Audit Committee on Green Jobs

Dear Mr Dunne,

I am writing to you and the Committee to provide an update on recent and upcoming Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) environmental work. This includes work on the UK natural capital accounts, potentially useful background for the Committee’s “role of natural capital in the green economy” inquiry, as well as measuring green jobs, greenhouse gas emissions, and other environment-related publications.

Measuring green jobs

In our March 2023 green jobs update, we outlined our proposed definition, developed through extensive stakeholder engagement: “Employment in an activity that contributes to protecting or restoring the environment, including those that mitigate or adapt to climate change.”

Our September 2023 release, “Experimental estimates of green jobs, UK: 2023”, provided our first estimates of green jobs in the UK, with indicative estimates using three bases – industry, occupation, and firm.

We are continuing to develop the measurement of green jobs, towards increasing timeliness and accuracy, thus enhancing the evidence base on this important issue.

Greenhouse gas emissions (residence based) estimates

On 9 October 2023, we published the latest UK environment accounts, including provisional estimates of greenhouse gas emissions on a residence-basis for 2022, alongside air pollution figures.

In July 2023, we published our first experimental estimates of quarterly UK greenhouse gas emissions on a residence basis, up to Quarter 1 (January to March) 2023. We will be publishing further estimates, up to Quarter 2 (April to June) 2023, on 3 November. We use modelling techniques to provide more timely statistics alongside our annual estimates. While these estimates are different to territorial measures (emissions that occur within the UK’s borders) used to monitor UK emissions targets, produced by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, as they are residence-based, they are comparable with a range of important economic statistics, including gross domestic product (GDP).

Natural capital accounts

We produce the UK Natural Capital Accounts, which monitor the changing capacity and demand for natural resources and the benefits they provide.

Widely regarded as world-leading, these accounts are produced on a consistent basis with the System of National Accounts (SNA) used to produce Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and so help to understand the links between the environment and economic statistics. As they are produced to UN standards and guidance, they are also broadly internationally comparable.

We have continued to develop our methodology, updating the “Principles of UK natural capital accounting” in June, outlining how we interpret and apply international guidelines to the UK context.

We published the latest urban habitat accounts in September.  A summary of the latest UK natural capital accounts was also published in the Blue Book 2023 on 31 October, ahead of the full accounts being published in November. We have previously produced stand‑alone accounts for Scotland and England, and November’s release will feature breakdowns for all four UK nations for the first time.

Additionally, these natural capital accounts are an important element of our work to better understand inclusive wealth, the concept proposed in the HM Treasury-commissioned Dasgupta Review of the Economics of Biodiversity.

Businesses

We are also regularly using our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) to understand business responses to environmental issues.

In the period 7 to 20 August 2023, we asked UK businesses about climate change, finding 39% to be “very” or “somewhat concerned”, 44% “not concerned” and 17% “not sure”.

In terms of actions, 7% of businesses reported monitoring climate related risks, 4% having a climate change strategy, 3% having a greenhouse gas emissions target and 1% having a target that includes the supply chain. We also found that 3% of businesses reported monitoring nature or biodiversity risks, and 2% having a nature or biodiversity strategy.

In the period 24 July to 6 August 2023, 75% of businesses reported that they had not assessed the risks of any of the specified climate change effects (water scarcity, coastal erosion, increased flooding and temperature increases).[2] Of those that had assessed these risks, 28% had not taken any action, 18% did not expect to be impacted, while 18% reported they had been unable to take action either because of costs, or the lack of information or guidance.

Our BICS release, scheduled for 16 November[3], will look at barriers to business actions and whether climate change impacts are considered in businesses investment plans.

Individuals

We also continue to publish fortnightly statistics about issues of concern in Public Opinions and Social Trends.

The issue for the survey period 4 to 15 October 2023 found that, when asked about the important issues facing the UK today, the fourth most commonly reported issue was “climate change and the environment”, by 62% of adults in Great Britain.

We are planning further insights on public perceptions to the environment in the coming months. Our next update to our measures of national well-being dashboard, which includes a measure tracking pro-environmental lifestyle changes to tackle environmental issues, is on 10 November 2023.

Other relevant publications

We published “Climate-related mortality, England and Wales, 1988 to 2022” as experimental statistics in September, showing an estimated 4,507 deaths associated with the hottest days in England in 2022.

Our annual energy efficiency of housing release was also published on 1 November. We are also looking at the feasibility of linking energy performance certificate data to Census data to understand more about the households in high and low-rated energy efficient properties.

We would be happy to brief the Committee further on any aspect of our work if helpful.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

Office for National Statistics follow-up written evidence to Welsh Parliament’s Culture, Communications, Welsh Language, Sport, and International Relations Committee (English and Welsh)

Dear Ms Jewell,

Thank you for your letter dated 3 October 2023 following up on several points raised during our meeting with the Committee on 21 September 2023 on the future of population and migration statistics in England and Wales.

Feedback from the 2023 International Census Forum

 The 2023 International Census Forum (ICF) was held in Montreal between 2-5 October. There were representatives in attendance from Canada, the United States of America, New Zealand, Australia, Ireland, Scotland, England & Wales, and Northern Ireland.

The subject of language data collection in the Census was raised at this ICF. In particular, there was discussion around how language is collected in the Census and whether any specific challenges had been experienced. Broadly, no country reported experiencing significant difficulties in collection or reporting.

As an example, in the Canadian Census of Population there are four questions on language. These are: can the person speak English or French well enough to conduct a conversation; what language is spoken on a regular basis at home; what language is spoken most often at home; what is the language first learned at home in childhood and still understood.

Countries reported no issues relating to sense of belonging or any other significant issues when comparing Census with Surveys.

As part of the ICF Communities of Practice (CoP) framework, technical working groups exist to carry work forward in a collaborative way. Language collection would come under the data collection CoP and so best practice and approaches will continue to be shared between countries in this working group.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Welsh Government joint work plan on coherence of Welsh language statistics

We recognise the importance of robust data on Welsh language skills for the Welsh Government, to measure progress against the aim of a million Welsh speakers by 2050. We have conducted initial research into the potential of administrative datasets to provide information about Welsh language skills variables, in particular from education sources. This research has suggested that there is comprehensive coverage of Welsh language skills for school age children. However, the administrative sources available do not allow for production of estimates of Welsh speaking at local authority level based on population characteristics such as age and sex.

We recognise that alternative means of data collection may be needed to produce robust Welsh language statistics, for example through government departments’ admin data collection or through surveys. We are keen to work with Welsh government to explore administrative sources further, as well as to explore the use of local data sources to provide this information.

Whilst we work to improve the quality of the administrative data, we will continue to use survey data where required to ensure robust statistics on Welsh language skills are available for policymakers and other data users. We are working closely with Welsh Government colleagues and are jointly conducting an ambitious workplan of research to understand the quality of current data collection sources.

The first results from this workplan have been published and can be found in our joint Differences between estimates of Welsh language ability in Census 2021 and household surveys article. This workplan will continue into 2024 and will help to inform Welsh Government’s response to the National Statistician’s recommendation following the consultation on the future of migration and population statistics in England and Wales.

Please do let us know if you have any other questions, and if we can help the Committee further on either of these topics or any other matters.

Yours sincerely,                                                                                                                

Ruth Studley, Jen Woolford

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Annwyl Ms Jewell,

Diolch am eich llythyr dyddiedig 3 Hydref 2023 yn cymryd camau dilynol mewn perthynas â sawl pwynt a godwyd yn ystod ein cyfarfod gyda’r Pwyllgor ar 21 Medi 2023 ar ddyfodol ystadegau am y boblogaeth a mudo yng Nghymru a Lloegr.

Adborth o Fforwm Cyfrifiad Rhyngwladol 2023

 Cynhaliwyd Fforwm Cyfrifiad Rhyngwladol 2023 yn Montreal rhwng 2 a 5 Hydref. Roedd cynrychiolwyr o Ganada, Unol Daleithiau America, Seland Newydd, Awstralia, Iwerddon, yr Alban, Cymru a Lloegr, a Gogledd Iwerddon yn bresennol.

Cafodd y mater o gasglu data am iaith yn y cyfrifiad ei drafod yn y Fforwm hwn. Yn benodol, cafwyd trafodaeth ynglŷn â sut y caiff gwybodaeth am iaith ei chasglu yn y cyfrifiad ac a oes unrhyw heriau penodol wedi’u nodi. Yn fras, ni nododd unrhyw wlad ei bod wedi cael anawsterau sylweddol wrth gasglu nac adrodd.

Er enghraifft, yng Nghyfrifiad o Boblogaeth Canada, mae pedwar cwestiwn am iaith, sef: a yw’r person yn gallu siarad Saesneg neu Ffrangeg yn ddigon da i gynnal sgwrs; pa iaith a gaiff ei siarad yn rheolaidd yn y cartref; pa iaith a gaiff ei siarad amlaf yn y cartref; pa iaith a gaiff ei dysgu gyntaf yn y cartref yn ystod plentyndod ac sy’n cael ei deall o hyd.

Ni nododd gwledydd unrhyw broblemau mewn perthynas ag ymdeimlad o berthyn nac unrhyw faterion eraill o bwys wrth gymharu’r Cyfrifiad ag Arolygon.

Fel rhan o fframwaith Cymunedau Ymarfer y Fforwm, mae gweithgorau technegol yn bodoli er mwyn symud gwaith yn ei flaen mewn ffordd gydweithredol. Byddai casglu gwybodaeth am iaith yn rhan o’r Gymuned Ymarfer ar gyfer casglu data ac felly bydd arferion gorau a dulliau gweithredu yn parhau i gael eu rhannu rhwng gwledydd yn y gweithgor hwn.

Cynllun gwaith ar y cyd y Swyddfa Ystadegau Gwladol (y SYG) a Llywodraeth Cymru ar gydlynu ystadegau am y Gymraeg

 Rydym yn cydnabod pa mor bwysig yw cael data cadarn ar sgiliau Cymraeg i Lywodraeth Cymru, er mwyn mesur cynnydd yn erbyn y nod o gael miliwn o siaradwyr erbyn 2050. Rydym wedi gwneud gwaith ymchwil cychwynnol i’r posibilrwydd o ddefnyddio setiau data gweinyddol i ddarparu gwybodaeth am newidynnau sgiliau Cymraeg, ac o ffynonellau addysg yn benodol. Mae’r ymchwil hon wedi awgrymu bod sgiliau Cymraeg plant oedran ysgol yn cael eu cwmpasu’n gynhwysfawr. Fodd bynnag, nid yw’r ffynonellau gweinyddol sydd ar gael yn caniatáu i amcangyfrifon o sgiliau siarad Cymraeg gael eu cynhyrchu ar lefel awdurdod lleol yn seiliedig ar nodweddion y boblogaeth fel oedran a rhyw.

Rydym yn cydnabod y gall fod angen defnyddio dulliau eraill o gasglu data er mwyn cynhyrchu ystadegau cadarn am y Gymraeg, er enghraifft drwy brosesau casglu data gweinyddol adrannau’r Llywodraeth neu drwy arolygon. Rydym yn awyddus i weithio gyda Llywodraeth Cymru i ymchwilio ymhellach i ffynonellau gweinyddol, yn ogystal ag ystyried ffyrdd o ddefnyddio ffynonellau data lleol i ddarparu’r wybodaeth hon.

Wrth i ni weithio i wella ansawdd y data gweinyddol, byddwn yn parhau i ddefnyddio data o arolygon pan fo angen i sicrhau bod ystadegau cadarn am sgiliau Cymraeg ar gael i’r rhai sy’n llunio polisïau a defnyddwyr data eraill. Rydym yn gweithio’n agos gyda chydweithwyr yn Llywodraeth Cymru ac rydym yn cynnal cynllun gwaith ymchwil uchelgeisiol ar y cyd er mwyn deall ansawdd ffynonellau casglu data cyfredol.

Mae canlyniadau cyntaf y cynllun gwaith hwn wedi cael eu cyhoeddi a gellir dod o hyd iddynt yn ein herthygl ar y cyd, Gwahaniaethau rhwng amcangyfrifon o allu yn y Gymraeg yng Nghyfrifiad 2021 ac arolygon aelwydydd. Bydd y cynllun gwaith hwn yn parhau i 2024 a bydd yn helpu i lywio ymateb Llywodraeth Cymru i argymhelliad yr Ystadegydd Gwladol yn dilyn yr ymgynghoriad ar ddyfodol ystadegau am y boblogaeth a mudo yng Nghymru a Lloegr.

Rhowch wybod i ni os oes gennych unrhyw gwestiynau eraill, ac os gallwn helpu’r Pwyllgor ymhellach mewn perthynas â’r pynciau hyn neu unrhyw faterion eraill.

Yn gywir,                                                                                                               

Ruth Studley, Jen Woolford