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Office for National Statistics follow-up written evidence to the Treasury Committee on economic statistics

Dear Dame Meg Hillier,

Thank you for your letter of 14 February, following up on our evidence session with your Committee on 4 February. As I mentioned during the session, we are grateful for your interest in this important area of work.

In response to the request in your letter, I can commit to providing regular updates on the progress of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), and any emerging issues of note, to both this Committee and the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee (PACAC). In the first instance, I will write to the Committee with an update following the upcoming decision regarding the future timings of the TLFS.

During the session, I promised to write regarding two further points.

Budget

We discussed the efficiencies the Office for National Statistics (ONS) made in 2024. Following clarification from colleagues, I wanted to confirm that by the end of the 2024/25 financial year we estimate that the annual effect of cumulative efficiencies and savings generated across the SR21 period will be £39.2m. This equates to 9.9% of forecast net expenditure estimated at £396m for 2024/25. I would be grateful if the transcript could be updated accordingly.

Public contact details

We also discussed the impact of contacting the public via telephone during the pandemic, the potential of using other contact methods to improve survey response rates and if the ONS requires additional powers to access contact details. The ONS currently uses both mobile phone and landline numbers to contact respondents. The Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) sample of household addresses is telematched using commercially available datasets of mobile and landline numbers. This approach typically provides a phone number of varying quality for approximately 30% of addresses. Email addresses are less useful as they cannot be linked to an address, and we are not assured of their security, so we only use these where they have been provided to us by the respondent during our first interview with them. This enables us to contact them to ask them to complete later waves of the survey.

I am content that the ONS currently has the legislative framework it requires to obtain the data we need to deliver our surveys and contact respondents. Our new Survey Innovation and Research hub will accelerate our work this year to increase response rates and maximise respondent engagement across our surveys.

Thanks again for interest and as I mentioned in the session, I would be very happy to welcome you and your Committee to our office in Newport, Wales.

I am copying this letter to Simon Hoare MP, Chair of PACAC.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Environmental Audit Committee’s inquiry into the role of natural capital in the green economy

Dear Mr Perkins,

Please accept my congratulations on your election as Chair of the Environmental Audit Committee. Further to our update to the previous Committee in November 2023, I am writing to provide a further update on recent and upcoming Office for National Statistics (ONS) environmental work.

This includes work on the UK natural capital accounts which will be of potential relevance to the Committee’s revived “role of natural capital in the green economy” inquiry.

Natural Capital Accounts

We continue to produce the UK’s Natural Capital Accounts, which estimate the current value of natural wealth and what it could provide for future generations, as noted in our previous update.

Widely regarded as world-leading, these accounts are produced on a consistent basis with the System of National Accounts (SNA) used to produce Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics, and so help to understand the links between the environment and economic statistics. Produced following UN standards and guidance, these are also broadly comparable internationally where other countries publish similar accounts.

Our latest annual release in November 2024 provides our best estimate of the total asset value of ecosystem services in the UK of around £1.8 trillion in 2022.

Building on 2023’s Principles of UK natural capital accounting, we have expanded the range of ecosystem services measured and data sources used, as detailed in our methods guide published with the annual release. For example, our latest tourism and recreation and associated health benefits estimates now include data from the People and Nature Survey for Wales, increasing our coverage to the whole of the UK.

Among ongoing methodological developments, we are working to increase timeliness of our statistics, adapting the methodology of recreation and tourism estimates to align with new data sources, improving coverage of urban heat regulating services from city regions to Local Authority level, and improving estimates of agricultural biomass provisioning, enabling us to produce enclosed farmland accounts which would be used by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). We will also focus our development capacity on other key user needs, such as expanding service coverage to include measures such as valuing flood defence.

We also published our latest habitat-focused accounts, for woodlands, in May 2024.

The UK Natural Capital accounts are very relevant for policy development. Defra produce an annual paper covering key points for policy makers in the UK and England based on our Natural Capital Accounts. The next iteration of this is due for release in early 2025.

We are also aware of growing demand from local and combined authorities, as well as other organisations for even greater spatial granularity to support their work and policies. Elements of the natural capital accounts, e.g. air pollution and greenhouse gas regulating services, are already available at local authority level. Our intention is to add urban heat regulating services, and also to produce recreation services at England region level.

Given the increasing interest in these estimates, we are looking at the possibility of moving our natural capital accounts from statistics in development to official statistics, in 2026.

Depletion of natural resources

The upcoming revision of the SNA, due to be adopted by the UN Statistical Commission in March 2025, is for the first time expected to incorporate a measure of the depletion of natural resources in core economic metrics. This would likely to be included in Net Domestic Product, and comparing this with more widely used GDP data would provide a measure of the longer-term sustainability of the economy.

Measurement of depletion also contributes towards measurement and analysis of ‘inclusive wealth’, as outlined in the HM Treasury-commissioned Dasgupta Review of the Economics of Biodiversity. As a ‘beyond GDP’ measure, inclusive wealth is more ambitious than the SNA revision, bringing in a more comprehensive definition of natural capital, as well as human capital, to create more holistic measure of economic welfare. These measures highlight the impact of economic activity now and into the future, and potential trade-offs and synergies between resource use, depletion and regeneration and economic growth. Depletion data will support the production of adjusted macroeconomic aggregates, such as net inclusive income and wealth. The latest edition of the ONS’s work on this was also published in November 2024.

While measuring UK natural capital asset depletion presents significant methodological and data challenges, we intend to build on our initial experimental estimates published in March 2024, which focused on non-renewables: oil, gas and coal. Our ambition would be to enhance our natural capital accounts to first quantify, then regularly produce, statistics on depletion of renewable resources – fish stocks, timber, renewable energy – and to estimate the costs of restoring environmental damage due to human activity.

Measuring private investment in nature

The Committee’s 18 December 2024 evidence session touched on measurement of the nature recovery investment target. The Minister for Nature referred to ongoing discussions between the Defra and the ONS on measuring this target.

These discussions have focused on the potential to transform our existing Environmental Protection Expenditure business survey to gather the data needed to produce annual statistics of relevance to this target. Progress is subject to the outcomes of ongoing internal business planning following the 2025/26 Spending Review and the second phase of the Spending Review.

Greenhouse gas emissions estimates

We produce estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG), alongside air pollution, emissions statistics on a residence, or production, basis. These complement territorial measure – emissions that occur within the UK’s borders – produced by the Department for Energy, Security and Net Zero that is used to monitor UK emissions targets, as they are residence-based, they are comparable with a range of important economic statistics, including GDP. We regularly update our explainer article about the different UK emissions measures.

Our latest provisional estimates of annual GHG and emissions statistics on a residence (or production) basis, published on 17 October 2024, found that GHG emissions decreased by 3.8% between 2022 and 2023, having increased 1.2% in 2022, and 0.3% below the 2020 level, during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Having remained stable of the last couple of years, emissions intensity was down 71% between 1990 (when this series began) and 2023 to reach its lowest ever level: 0.18 thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per million pounds of gross value added.

Our modelled estimates of quarterly emissions statistics for quarter 2 (April to June) 2024 were published on 6 November. Noting that these estimates are subject to greater uncertainty as final emissions estimates for 2023 are not yet available, these found that residence-based GHG emissions were 2.5% higher than in the same quarter in 2023.

Our estimates for Quarter 3 (July to September) 2023 are due to be published on 30 January 2025. Having developed innovative modelling to provide these more timely statistics, we are working towards securing official statistics status for these previous experimental statistics in development in this next release.

We are also looking at developing our environmental taxes work, looking at environmental subsidies, and produced deflated versions of our measures.

Measuring green jobs

Following publication of our definition of a green job in March 2023, “Employment in an activity that contributes to protecting or restoring the environment, including those that mitigate or adapt to climate change”, and initial estimates in September 2023, we published a second set of estimates on 14 March 2024.

Findings included that, using the industry approach, UK employment in green jobs in 2022 was an estimated 639,400 full-time equivalents (FTEs), up 8.4% on the 589,600 FTEs in 2021 and 19.9% higher than the 533,200 FTEs in 2020.

We are hoping to be able to publish annual green jobs estimates on an ongoing basis, following the release of our low carbon and renewable energy economy statistics in each year. We are continuing to develop the measurement of green jobs, towards increasing timeliness and accuracy, thus enhancing the evidence base on this important issue.

UN environmental economy statistical framework review

Following the process leading to the 2025 SNA revision, the UN Statistics Commission is expected to approve a revision to the current System of Environmental Economic Accounting Central Framework (SEEA-CF), targeting adoption in 2028. Adopted in 2012, this explores environment-economy interlinkages, and provides an internationally comparable approach used in our emissions and Environmental Taxes publications.

The review is intended to ensure that SEEA-CF remains responsive to emerging demands for integrated environmental and economic data. Potential work areas include linkages with SEEA Ecosystem Accounting (which our Natural Capital Accounts follow, see above); consistency with the 2025 SNA revision and harmonisation with updates to other relevant international frameworks and classifications; and strengthening links with policy the social domain.

The UK – through the ONS – is likely to be involved in the review process, potentially co-leading one of the working groups that are likely to be established, potentially focusing on issues including: classification of environmental activity; climate mitigation (net zero) and adaptation expenditure; environmentally damaging subsidies; incorporating sustainable finance into an accounting framework; and potentially extending ‘environmental activities’ beyond environmental protection and resource management.

Business & Individual sentiment & actions

In November 2024, we brought data on sentiment and responses to environmental issues from two of our rapid surveys – the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) and the Opinions & Lifestyle Survey – together in Public and business attitudes to the environment and climate change, Great Britain; 2023 and 2024. Key points from the release can be found in Annex A.

More recently, when asked about the important issues facing the UK today, during the period 6 November to 1 December 2024, 59% of adults in Great Britain selected climate change and the environment as an important issue. The other most commonly reported issues were NHS (86%), the cost of living (85%), the economy (68%), and crime (60%). Females (65%) were more likely to consider climate change and the environment as an important issue facing the UK than males (54%). The next release in this series is on 24 January 2025.

Additionally, when asked in BICS in late December 2024:

  • Nearly three in five (59%) businesses reported that they were not concerned about the impact climate change may have on their business; this is up 3 percentage points from late September 2024 and is the highest proportion reported since the question was first introduced into the BICS in September 2022.
  • 17% of businesses reported that they had taken at least one action to protect the environment, up 3 percentage points from late September 2024, but in line with late June 2024; the most commonly reported action was monitoring climate-related risks at 7%, broadly stable over the same period.
  • More than half (51%) of businesses reported that they had taken at least one action to reduce their carbon emissions, up 3 percentage points from late September 2024; the most reported actions taken were switching to LED bulbs (34%), adjusting heating and cooling systems (24%), and installing a smart meter (15%).

Note: Industries excluded from the BICS sample include those in agriculture, oil and gas extraction, energy generation and supply, public administration and defence, public provision of education and health, and finance and insurance.

Climate & Health

The ONS is also leading an international project called Standards for Official Statistics on Climate and Health Interactions (SOSCHI), with funding from Wellcome and in partnership with UKHSA and colleagues in Ghana and Rwanda. The aim is to develop a transparent and globally usable framework, with accompanying statistical methods to better estimate climate-related health risk using real-world data sources, including modelling local-level impacts. The project will help stakeholders produce high-quality data and statistics and communicate with a range of audiences. Especially in low- and middle-income countries, where the ability to monitor the effects of climate change will be increased by the provision of practical, coherent standards and open-source tools.

An overview of the project is available on the ONS website. Outputs to date include a first ‘Alpha’ version of the statistical framework and introductory papers looking at health impacts and outlining metrics for several topics including heat and cold related mortality. The project will publish its final recommendations in spring 2026 and links to international indicator development on the effects of climate change by the United Nations, the World Health Organisation and others.

Other relevant ONS publications

Our latest annual energy efficiency of housing in England and Wales release was published on 8 October 2024. Findings include that new dwellings are becoming more efficient, regardless of property or tenure type: new dwellings in both England and Wales had a median Energy Performance Certificate score of 84 in the five years to 2024, compared with 82 in England and 81 in Wales in the five years to 2013.

Other publications of potential interest to the Committee since our previous update include:

  • High emission-intensity industries (digital content) 5 December 2023
  • Impact of hot days on productivity in Great Britain (ONS Working Paper), 15 May 2024
  • Quarterly Measuring progress, wellbeing & beyond GDP Q4 – Wellbeing, climate change & nature, 14 November 2024

We also made our first ONS Statistically Speaking podcast, on “Green Data: Measuring the Environment”, available in August 2024.

As ever, we would be happy to brief the Committee further on any aspect of our work if helpful.

I am also copying this letter to the chairs of the Environment and Climate Change Committee, the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee, and the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee for their information.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

Annex A: Public and business attitudes to the environment and climate change, Great Britain; 2023 and 2024: key points

Using the latest data collected from adults in Great Britain in October 2024 using our Opinions and Lifestyle Survey:

  • Around 6 in 10 (57%) adults reported climate change and the environment was an important issue, compared with a recent high of 69% in July to August 2023.
  • The most common ways adults reported climate change had affected them in the last 12 months were strong winds (40%), floods (35%) and heatwaves (30%).
  • The most commonly reported ways adults expected climate change would affect them in the next 10 years were increased temperatures (65%), increased flooding (60%), stronger winds (50%), rising sea levels or coastal erosion (44%) and water shortages (40%), with around 8 in 10 (83%) expecting to be affected in the next 10 years in at least one of the ways we asked about.

When considering public attitudes to climate change by different characteristics using data collected during August to October 2024:

  • Groups of the population who appeared more likely to report climate change and the environment was an important issue included adults with a degree or equivalent (66%), working in professional occupations (67%), those living in the least deprived areas of England (61%), women (60%), those living in the South West (61%), those aged 16 to 29 years (59%) or aged 70 years and over.
  • Around three-quarters (76%) of adults reported having made changes (68% some, 9% a lot) to their lifestyle to help tackle climate change; groups who appeared more likely to report this included those working in professional occupations (85%), adults with a degree or equivalent (85%), Asian or Asian British adults or Mixed or multiple ethnic group adults (82%), women (81%), those living in London (81%), adults aged 30 to 49 years (80%) or 50 to 69 years (79%).
  • Among the 24% of adults who had not made any lifestyle changes to help tackle climate change, the most commonly reported reasons were not feeling that their changes would have any effect on climate change (42%), thinking that large-scale polluters should change before individuals (37%), it being too expensive to make changes (24%) and not knowing how to make changes (19%).
  • The majority of adults in Great Britain (74%) reported they would support (41% strongly, 33% somewhat) the creation of renewable energy projects in their local area; this proportion appeared higher among groups including those with a degree or equivalent (84%) or those in professional occupations (85%).

Using data collected during late September 2024 from our UK Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) to examine business attitudes towards climate change. Note that industries excluded from the BICS sample include those in agriculture, oil and gas extraction, energy generation and supply, public administration and defence, public provision of education and health, and finance and insurance.

  • The proportion of businesses that expressed concern (very or somewhat concerned) about the impact of climate change on their business had fallen from around a third (34%) in late June 2024 to less than 3 in 10 (28%) in late September 2024.
  • Among all businesses, the accommodation and food service activities industry had the largest proportion of businesses reporting some form of concern, at 44%, with the lowest level of reported concern being reported by the other service activities industry, which includes hairdressing and other beauty treatments, at 6%.
  • Concern about climate change increased as business size increased, from 26% for businesses with fewer than 10 employees, up to 57% for businesses with 250 or more employees.
  • When asked about which risks of climate change businesses had assessed, supply chain disruption and distribution (8%) was most commonly reported, followed by temperature increases (4%) and increased flooding (4%), but the majority of businesses (74%) had not assessed any of the risks listed (other response options included coastal erosion and water security.)
  • Among businesses that had assessed at least one climate change risk, 29% reporting having acted as a result, with the largest proportion having taken action against potential supply chain disruption and distribution risks (15%).

The majority of UK businesses surveyed (79%) reported in BICS for late September 2024 that they had not been affected by severe weather events in the last 12 months.  Of the remaining 21% of businesses that reported they had been affected, storms (7%) was the most commonly reported response, followed by flooding (5%), and increased temperatures or heat, at 4%.

Among those businesses who reported they had been affected by severe weather events in the last 12 months, the most commonly reported forms of impact were weather-related damage to physical infrastructure (20%), employee absence (13%), disruption to local supply chains (9%) and disruption to global supply chains (5%), 13% reported “Other”, while around half (50%) of businesses were not sure how they had been affected.

Office for Statistics Regulation written evidence to the Modernisation Committee’s inquiry into the work of the committee

Dear Ms Powell,

As Director General of Regulation at the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), I am writing following the Modernisation Committee’s call for evidence on the work of the Committee.

The OSR is the regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority and plays a key role in protecting public confidence in the trustworthiness, quality and value of statistics produced and used by government. We consider statistics to be the lifeblood of democratic debate and that misuse of statistics results in an erosion of trust in Government.

We are responsible for setting the standards that official statistics must meet in the Code of Practice for Statistics. We also use our voice to stand up for statistics and represent the interests of the public by investigating concerns raised with us (referred to as casework) about the dissemination and use of statistics, reporting publicly where necessary.

We have two key areas that we would like to bring to the attention of the Modernisation Committee that we consider would contribute to the strategic aim of driving up standards and restoring public trust.

Intelligent Transparency

Why this topic would benefit from the attention of the Modernisation Committee

Intelligent transparency ensures public understanding of, and confidence in, numbers used by governments. It involves proactively taking an open, clear, and accessible approach to the release and use of data and statistics so that they can be easily accessed, scrutinised and used appropriately.

Our principles for intelligent transparency are:

  • Equality of access – Data used by government in the public domain should be made available to all in an accessible and timely way. Our expectation is that figures used by MPs in a public forum should already be publicly available. This ensures that any claims made are evidenced, verifiable and able to be scrutinised.
  • Ease of understanding – Sources for figures should be cited and appropriate explanation of context, including strengths and limitations, communicated clearly alongside figures. Our expectation is that MPs use statistics in a fair and accurate way that supports understanding and is not misleading.
  • Independent decision making and leadership – Decisions about the publication of statistics and data, such as content and timing, should be independent of political influence and policy processes. Our expectation is that MPs will not interfere with the independent process of publishing statistics.

We have worked closely with the Heads of Profession for Statistics network across government departments to deliver training and raise awareness of intelligent transparency. We have had considerable successful engaging with civil servants including statisticians, analysts, communication professions, policy teams and Permanent Secretaries. However, to date, we have had limited direct contact with MPs and Ministers. Given that the full success of intelligent transparency is dependent on all being aware of it, across government and parliament, we would encourage parliamentary committees and individual MPs to be aware of the principles of intelligent transparency in their work.

It is our view that the Modernisation Committee could play a key role in ensuring that the principles of intelligent transparency are fully embraced and embedded across parliament as the default approach for communicating statistics. This will ensure that statistics are used by MPs in a way that supports public trust.

Existing work relevant to this topic

We have a range of publicly available materials including guidance, FAQs and several blogs.

Our most recent blog comments on a claim made by the Prime Minister at the Labour Party Conference, specifically that there had been “a 23 per cent increase in returns of people who have no right to be here, compared with last summer.” This claim was based on unpublished Home Office data and resulted in us requesting that the Home Office publish an ad hoc release containing the underlying data in advance of the official statistics publication. Cases such as these can result in confusion over the source of the claim, negative media coverage and a disruption to the orderly release of official statistics.

Whilst much of the regulatory work we do is behind the scenes, we have written publicly on several cases relating to intelligent transparency. Key examples include:

  • A statement by OSR (June 2024) relating to the claim made by the Conservative Party that “a Labour government would mean £2,000 of tax rises per working household”. The statement concludes that without reading the full Conservative Party costing document, someone hearing the claim would have no way of knowing that this is an estimate summed together over four years.
  • Sir Robert Chote to Rt Hon Richard Holden Party Spending Claims (June 2024) relating to the claim by the Labour Party that the Conservative Party would “raise people’s mortgages by £4,800.” The letter states that: “When distilling these claims into a single number, there should be enough context to allow the average person to understand what it means and how significant it is. Omitting this information can damage trust in the data and the claims that these data inform.”

Ed Humpherson to Matthew Rycroft transparency of home office statistics (November 2022) which sets out our concerns regarding the use of unpublished Home Office data and statistics by Priti Patel (then Home Secretary), Rishi Sunak (then Prime Minister) and Robert Jenrick (then Minister for Immigration)

It is important to note that there have been several high-profile endorsements of intelligent transparency including:

  • A PACAC report on ‘Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base’ (May 2024) which commended our work on intelligent transparency and recommended that OSR publish an annual report card of departments’ compliance with this guidance so that “Parliament and external bodies might support OSR in holding departments to account and making the case for well-informed policy.” We are currently exploring options for what annual reporting could look like.
  • A private letter from Sir Robert Chote, Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, to new Secretaries of State on ‘Support for ensuring statistics serve the public good’ (October 2024). We have received positive replies to this letter from several Secretaries of State demonstrating their support for these principles.
  • A public letter from Sir Robert Chote, Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, to political party leaders ahead of the general election (June 2024).
  • A private letter from Alex Chisholm (then Civil Service Chief Operating Officer and Cabinet Office Permanent Secretary) to Permanent Secretaries on the ‘Transparency in use of statistics’ (April 2022).
  • Full Fact Report 2023 summarises our involvement in several key cases that relate to the principles of intelligent transparency and notes that: “In 2022 alone the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) had to write to Government departments at least ten times about the lack of transparency in their use of statistics.”
  • A PACAC report on ‘Government transparency and accountability during Covid 19: The data underpinning decisions’ (March 2021) which states that “statistics quoted by Ministers have not always been underpinned by published data, which goes against the UKSA Code of Practice. Publishing the underlying data is key to transparency and building trust. When the underlying data is not published, numbers may be used to make politicised points and members of the public, journalists and Parliamentarians have no way of verifying the information shared. This means constructive debate cannot happen. When Ministers or senior officials quote statistics, the underlying data must be published.”

Strengthening the Ministerial Code

Why this topic would benefit from the attention of the Modernisation Committee

The current version of the Ministerial Code states that: “Ministers need to be mindful of the UK Statistics Authority’s Code of Practice which defines good practice in relation to official statistics, observance of which is a statutory requirement on all organisations that produce National Statistics in accordance with the provisions of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.”

In his October letter to Secretaries of State, Sir Robert Chote asked that “[Secretaries of State] consider going beyond the letter of the Ministerial Code, from merely being mindful to complying with the Code of Practice for Statistics.”

As the Ministerial Code provides the foundation for setting standards across parliament, we consider that strengthening the Code in relation to the Code of Practice for Statistics will protect against the misuse of statistics. Strengthening the Ministerial Code will also signal that MPs are fully committed to upholding the standards of Trustworthiness, thus supporting confidence.

Recently there have been several calls in favour of strengthening the Ministerial Code in relation to the Code of Practice for Statistics. It was our hope that this would have been incorporated in the most recent update to the Ministerial Code which took place in November, however this was not the case.

Existing work relevant to this topic

Over the past few years, there have been several calls in favour of strengthening the Ministerial Code including:

  • The independent review of the UK Statistics Authority by Professor Denise Lievesley CBE (March 2024) which stated that “As the current and former Chairs of the UKSA and PACAC have noted, there is scope to strengthen the Ministerial Code to mandate adherence to the UKSA Code of Practice for Statistics. This Review concurs.” The review goes on to state that: “bolstering the Code in this way will send a clear signal to the country that Ministers are holding themselves to the highest account.”
  • A letter from the Royal Statistical Society to Secretaries of State (July 2024) which calls for Secretaries of State to “pledge to abide by the Code of Practice of Statistics – rather than merely being mindful of it as the current Ministerial Code requires.”
  • A letter from Full Fact to the Prime Minister (July 2024) which asked that the PM “Make the Ministerial Code statutory, and incorporate compulsory adherence to the Code of Practice for Statistics.”
  • Feedback in OSR’s review of the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2023 highlighted how helpful producers and users find OSR’s regulatory guidance on Intelligent Transparency and requested that it be incorporated into the Code. OSR is now consulting on a proposed third edition of the Code of Practice which includes Standards for Intelligent Transparency that those in public bodies should meet when using statistics to support statements in the public domain.
  • A PACAC report on ‘Government transparency and accountability during Covid 19: The data underpinning decisions’ (March 2021) which stated that: “The Ministerial Code needs to be strengthened so it is clear that Ministers are required to abide by the UKSA Code of Practice in their presentation of data. The UKSA Code includes the principle of trustworthiness that builds ‘confidence in the people and organisations that produce statistics and data’. Abiding by the UKSA Code of Practice is a statutory requirement for Government Departments. It is simply not enough to ask Ministers to be “mindful” of the UKSA code.”

I hope this evidence is useful to the Committee. Please let us know if you have any questions or if the OSR can support the Committee further in its inquiry. 

Yours sincerely,

Ed Humpherson

Director General for Regulation

Office for National Statistics correspondence to the Treasury Committee on labour market statistics

Dear Dame Meg,

As National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding to your letter of 21 November regarding the Labour Force Survey.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), as the UK’s National Statistical Institute (NSI) and largest producer of official statistics, delivers independent and relevant statistics and analysis, continuously responding and improving to ensure these are of high quality and meet user need. The ONS is delivering a programme of improvements to increase the quality of data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). While we are starting to see the positive impacts of these recovery efforts, our continued work to stabilise the data in partnership with key users is our highest priority. Alongside this, we are progressing our strategic solution to the international fall in survey response rates and sizeable inflationary impacts, through the online-first Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS).

Recovery of the LFS

The sharp fall in survey response rates, a long-term trend that rapidly accelerated during and after the pandemic period, has been a significant challenge in the UK as well as for other NSIs around the world. There are many reasons for this decline, including increased cautiousness around the sharing of personal information, declining trust in government and public institutions, a reluctance to have interviewers inside homes and increased challenges accessing secure/gated properties.

The LFS involves five ‘waves’ of data collection – an initial survey interview, then eligible households repeat the survey each quarter on four further occasions to track changes in employment over time. The voluntary nature of the UK’s LFS as well as its significant length (around 45 minutes per wave per household on average) have meant LFS response rates have been more heavily impacted than other countries.

We are acutely aware of the significance of reliable labour market statistics as a source of evidence for economic decision making and that some indicators are only available from surveys such as the LFS. We do not underestimate the challenges involved with the use of data to inform the decision making of central banks in times of uncertainty, as the 2023 Bernanke Review set out.

Following the disruption of the pandemic and a period of substantial inflationary impacts with difficult prioritisation decisions, the ONS worked to re-establish high quality survey data collection, by re-introducing face-to-face data collection survey by survey, re-training interviewers and re-establishing the operation. By 2023, it was evident that societal behavioural changes as a result of the pandemic had influenced the data collection environment and were contributing to the survey quality not recovering at the rate anticipated. At its lowest point in 2023, the LFS response rate was 17.4% (UK, including imputed cases). This had significant implications for the quality of the statistics derived from the survey, resulting in the temporary suspension of the LFS as a source of labour market data in October 2023. Due to the dwindling response rates, we introduced the LFS Recovery Plan to restore the quality of its estimates, focusing on data collection improvements and methodological enhancements. The complexity of the survey and issues meant the interventions would take time to fully embed in the survey and subsequently improve the quality of the estimates.

As part of data collection improvements, we increased the targeted sample by over 50% in January 2024 from 16,700 to 25,800 new households each quarter, returning it to the levels adopted in the aftermath of the pandemic period. We increased face-to-face interviewing and the incentives for participation from £10 up to £50, with a particular focus on Wave 1 responses (our initial collection with a household). As a result, the achieved sample is now 15,000 higher than at its lowest point, an increase in the overall UK response rate from 17.4% in Jul-Sep 2023 to 24.6% in Jul-Sep 2024. We are currently recruiting an additional 150 interviewers to further support Waves 2-5.

Methodological enhancements have focused on the weighting of survey results to support quality. Weighting utilises population projections and estimates to ensure data collected from only a sample of the population produces outputs that are representative of the entire population. Population projections are usually provided once every two years but during this period they were impacted by the unusual migration pattern following the pandemic and the effects of changes to the immigration system following the UK’s exit from the EU. Therefore, the ONS introduced an additional partial re-weighting in February 2024 as well as for December 2024. LFS quarterly person data has been reweighted back to 2019 using updated population numbers. An article to illustrate the impact was published on 3 December 2024 and full results will be released on 17 December 2024. Reweighted two-quarter longitudinal LFS person outputs are expected in spring 2025. A more complete reweighting of all LFS data will follow during 2025/26, as well as Annual Population Survey (APS) data which makes use of LFS responses and additional sample boosts to deliver regional and local level statistics.

As noted above, the wave nature of LFS means data collection and methodological improvements take time to feed through fully into the estimates. Autumn 2024 has seen significant volatility and we have supported users to navigate the data uncertainty in this interim period. This includes being clear on our website, social media and broadcast media interviews on the data limitations and how they affect the use and interpretation of LFS estimates. Our expanded commentary recommends that, at this time, users make full use of all available data sources when assessing the labour market, such as HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) data on the number of people on payrolls and the number of workforce jobs, which the ONS has developed and published. We highlight that these sources are currently likely to be providing a better read of recent trends in employment, particularly of employees.

Acknowledging the complexities of the challenges and the vital importance of these statistics to users, we have strengthened our engagement with stakeholders and channels for external challenge, support and expertise to inform our approach. We introduced a new monthly Technical Engagement Group in October 2023 with members from the Bank of England (BoE), HM Treasury (HMT), Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) to provide a forum to discuss upcoming developments and improvements in an open and transparent manner, which is providing invaluable input and feedback on our plans for both LFS and TLFS. In addition, in June 2024, we established a Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Labour Market Statistics chaired by Professor Jonathan Portes with representation from academics, think tanks, core government organisations and the Devolved Administrations, to provide independent advice and guidance on the production, publication, uses and application of labour market statistics and their technical aspects.

One focus has been on exploring how survey response challenges might be introducing potential bias in the LFS estimates, in particular for young people and ethnic minorities. This was considered at the Stakeholder Advisory Panel on 24 October 2024 and will be further addressed in a special session later this month that will also be attended by members of the Technical Engagement Group to assess whether any further methodological actions are necessary. We plan to extend our work on the coherence of key labour market data sources, with a further publication planned in the new year.

In summary, progress has been made in recovering the LFS with the achieved sample now significantly higher and the incorporation of the latest population information into the estimates. The major changes we have made to the LFS will be fully included through all five of the survey waves by the first quarter of next year, which will inform the LFS estimates for publication in May 2025.

Progress on the TLFS

Our long-term solution to falling response rates and quality challenges on the LFS is the development of an online-first evolution of the LFS called the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS). The ambition of the TLFS is to improve the quality of our labour market statistics, provide a more adaptive and responsive survey to meet user needs and enhance respondent experience. While the online-first nature of the survey enables a far larger sample size than the LFS, to ensure quality of the survey and reduce bias, ONS field force still visit 3,855 addresses a week on the TLFS to encourage them to complete the survey, referred to as ‘knock-to-nudge’.

The ONS started a full parallel run of the TLFS alongside the LFS in October 2023 to determine whether the performance of the survey met operational and statistical quality criteria. Compared with the LFS, in this pilot the TLFS provides a larger achieved sample (quarterly datasets include more than double the number of people than LFS), a higher response rate at every wave (40% compared to 36% at Wave 1) and the potential for more stable weighted outputs. However, there was bias in response towards older age groups, higher levels of partial responses compared with the LFS, and quality issues with the online response to some more complex variables such as respondents’ occupation and the industry in which they work.

The analysis of the parallel run data for headline labour market outputs demonstrates differences in headline labour market outputs between the two surveys. While some of this difference is expected (e.g. the TLFS uses the latest labour market definitions and updated methods which differ from those on the LFS), we have a strand of work to further account for the differences and identify adaptations, working with users to understand the implications for outputs and manage how data are used in their own systems.

As part of our open approach and bringing in of external challenge and expertise around the survey design complexities, the ONS has enhanced the role of the Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP). Through MARP, we commissioned Professors Chambers and Brown to undertake a methodological and design review of the TLFS in April 2024. This review recommended new work on a shorter online survey with the capacity for designed modular additions, as well as the need to continue the parallel run for five quarters to assess how the surveys captured seasonal variations in the labour market. Based on this review and feedback from both internal and external users, in July 2024 we announced an extension of the parallel run of the LFS and TLFS and plans to test further design improvements within the TLFS.

Since July we have completed a series of discrete online design tests to assess the impact of a shorter TLFS questionnaire that aims to reduce average household completion time from 37 minutes to around 15 minutes. The test also included questionnaire changes to address bias, rates of partial response and collection of complex variables, as well as the use of a QR code to ease citizen response.

Early indications show positive outcomes from the design tests with some areas for development. We are now conducting a thorough evaluation and reviewing the content of the shorter survey to ensure it meets key labour market requirements whilst reducing respondent burden as much as possible. Pending evaluation of the test activity, an examination of our assumptions and engagement with our expert groups, there are several scenarios for when we are able to transition from using the LFS to using the TLFS, involving the implementation of the shorter survey and further periods of parallel run. Therefore, we cannot yet set out a firm timetable for transition but will layout potential timetables in quarter one 2025. While one scenario based on a shorter questionnaire is 2027, my ambition is to transition in 2026, with the timings being determined in collaboration with key users to ensure the TLFS meets their quality and system needs.

The development of the TLFS has provided a continuous opportunity for the ONS to learn and refine how it delivers this complex transformation project. In summer 2024, the ONS conducted an internal lessons learnt exercise including historical cultural issues. Our colleagues are committed and passionate about producing high quality labour market statistics and the exercise provided colleagues with the opportunity to contribute views with candour from across the totality of the project. A summary of the lessons learnt and the initial actions taken to address the issues is at Annex A. In particular, we strengthened technical and methodological leadership, including appointing two experienced senior colleagues to shore up analytical leadership capability. Additionally, the Director for Methodology is supporting oversight on the conditions for quality and the journey towards stability of the TLFS. We also raised awareness of channels that colleagues can use to escalate known issues and are promoting a culture that encourages the surfacing of risks and invites constructive challenge. While the report suggested a pause in development of the TLFS, the critical nature of the statistics and the decisions that flow from them means we are redoubling our efforts to improve and roll out the TLFS as soon as is practicable, with a continued focus on the wider issues raised.

International comparisons and further development

While some other countries do achieve higher response rates on their equivalent labour market surveys, many NSIs have also seen falling response rates in recent years. We are continually engaging with, and learning from, partner NSIs to boost response rates and reduce any response bias. The insights we receive from these NSIs are contributing to the ongoing evolution of TLFS design, specifically on the shorter survey, which harnesses the benefit of large-scale, online, self-completion.

The Independent Review of the UK Statistics Authority (the Authority) conducted by Professor Denise Lievesley earlier this year recommended that the Authority explore the consequences of mandatory completion of the LFS. Mandating would align with the census and business surveys and is akin to the civic duty of undertaking jury service. A move to mandating responses to the LFS would require legislation (as is the case for census and business surveys) and is not something the ONS can consider alone. We welcome a broader national conversation about the importance of citizens being represented in the country’s statistics and championing the value of data as critical national infrastructure.

Given the strategic challenges that surveys are facing, we are establishing a new Surveys Innovation Hub, expanding our portfolio of surveys research and are continuing to work closely with the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funded Survey Futures project. On Survey Futures, the ONS is collaborating with other survey providers to explore the feasibility of using names and contact details to cross-reference with our address database to make contacting individuals easier. We are conducting a suite of research to improve our ability to reach the public, build trust and gain consent to overcome barriers to completion of our household surveys. We are also exploring the use of alternative data sources in our end-to-end survey design, for example enabling us to adapt our samples and focus operational effort on contacting those population sub-groups that are typically less likely to engage in our surveys.

The common picture across many countries, and the UK’s survey sector (public and private) as a whole, of falling response rates suggests that we can no longer rely on surveys alone. While there are some questions that only can be accurately answered by large surveys, such as the distinction between unemployment and inactivity, we have already begun publishing other data sources to build a fuller picture of the labour market. The Integrated Data Service (IDS), a functioning cross-government hub that allows full value to be extracted from data collected across the public sector and beyond, will seek to identify, share and link securely these and other data sources across government to further build our understanding of the labour market. LFS data and HMRC tax data (PAYE RTI) were linked through the IDS in November 2024 and this integration of survey data and administrative sources will be used to inform labour market quality assurance and survey methods. More effective sharing of de-identified administrative data across government will further improve the quality of statistics and evidence to support national and local decision making.

Working in partnership with our key stakeholders, and learning from other countries, we will extend our exploratory work on integrating survey and administrative data to produce a holistic picture of the UK’s labour market. This includes our plans to produce Labour Market Accounts, which aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the UK’s labour market through the optimum balance of survey and administrative data.

Resourcing

As with other parts of the public sector, the Authority’s funding position throughout the Spending Review 2021 (2022/23 to 2024/25) has been one of constraint overall, including flatlined core funding, ring-fenced budgets, and substantial inflationary impacts. Operating within our budget in this context has led to difficult prioritisation decisions and the need to deliver efficiencies and cost savings across the organisation. Our efficiency and cost savings figure was approximately £11.4m for 2022/23 and £17.8m for 2023/24. We plan to deliver an estimated £12m in efficiencies and cost savings in 2024/25 taking the cumulative impact for the Spending Review 2021 (SR21) period to over £40m.

The work to prioritise activity and reduce costs started in 2022/23 and continued through 2023/24, impacted by the cost of increased colleague salaries and a notable inflationary effect on our cost bases, including through surveys. Significant cost saving measures to remain affordable, the need to dual run the LFS and TLFS and restrictions from ring-fenced budgets curtailed our ability to use the totality of organisational funding and dedicate the resources we would have ideally wanted to our social surveys operation.

The survey recovery plan in late 2023 set out how existing resources could be utilised to pivot to support the LFS/TLFS and other surveys to start to redress the downward trend. Given the skills and capabilities required to drive improvements and the scarcity of options, we further prioritised within the survey workforce. Simultaneously we set out our plans and a request for additional finance to HMT for the Surveys Quality Recovery Plan 2023/24, which was supported and the funding made available.

Prioritisation of surveys recovery formed a key component of our recent Spending Review 2025 (SR25) Phase 1 submission. Whilst funding for 2025/26 will remain at the same level as 2024/25 (flat cash) as part of our financial objectives we have been supported in significantly reducing the level of ring-fenced funding we receive as a proportion of the whole. This added flexibility will be vital for us in being able to pivot resources at pace in future and enables us to implement an LFS sustainability plan.

Throughout 2023 and 2024, the ONS’s three highest field data collection priorities have consistently been the labour force surveys (LFS and TLFS parallel run) and the Living Cost and Food Survey. Our decisions to not reapply for the contract to collect data for the National Survey for Wales for the Welsh Government in March 2023 and reduce interviewer resource on its financial surveys in February 2024 (including pausing the Survey of Living Conditions) reflect these priorities. Other surveys have also seen reduced support.

The additional investment allocated in the last year to recover the LFS and the ONS’s wider social surveys is enabling significant field interviewer recruitment. Our permanent face-to-face field interviewer community has grown from 477 (Dec 2023) to 544 (Nov 2024). Within the same timeframe we have also built up an agency workforce of 130 temporary field staff specifically to complete the ‘knock-to-nudge’ function on the TLFS, which releases an equivalent number of fully trained interviewers to support recovery across ONS’s social surveys. Compared with the 145 interviewers in October 2023, in the last month 275 face-to-face interviewers have worked on the LFS (across all waves). Recruitment continues, with a further 28 interviewers confirmed to start on the LFS in December to support improvements in Waves 2-5 response and recruitment ongoing to deliver the full requirement of 457 face-to-face interviewers across all LFS waves by the end of March 2025.

As an organisation, we fully comprehend the critical importance of high-quality labour market statistics and recognise the significant impact the response challenges are having on the reliability of data informing our key outputs. We are confident that by continuing to seek out internal and external challenges and expertise, progressing the improvements already made and delivering the solutions outlined above in partnership with our key stakeholders, we will be able to recover the quality issues with the LFS and continue our progress towards transition to the TLFS. Achieving a successful outcome from these programmes of work is the top priority for the ONS.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

 

Office for National Statistics follow-up correspondence to the Work and Pensions Committee on Defined Benefit pension scheme funding

Dear Ms Abrahams,

Firstly, congratulations on your appointment as Chair of the Work and Pensions Committee. I previously responded to a letter from your predecessor, Sir Stephen Timms MP, on Defined Benefit (DB) pension scheme funding at the beginning of this year. I wanted to write to update you on progress made on these statistics, prompted, in part, by the Committee’s interest in them.

The Work and Pensions Committee previously recommended that the Office for National Statistics (ONS), The Pensions Regulator (TPR) and the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) should reach an understanding of the funding position of DB schemes and publish the results. We note that the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions wrote to you with an update that the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) is working to provide a full response to the report on this topic in the new year.

The ONS, TPR and PPF have worked alongside each other for many years, with increasing closeness since autumn 2022, to understand the differences between our respective datasets on DB pension schemes. Tomorrow, the ONS will publish a joint statement with TPR and the PPF to acknowledge and summarise the different approaches taken to both data collection and how the data are used by the three organisations, making this as clear as possible to our users and stakeholders. We will continue working together on an ongoing basis and expect our datasets will show greater alignment in future based on our collaboration and proposed changes.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if any questions.

I am copying this letter to Sir Stephen in his role as Minister for Social Security and Disability at the Department for Work and Pensions.

Yours sincerely,
Rebecca Richmond
Deputy Director, Financial Sector Accounts and Corporations

UK Statistics Authority response to the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee’s report on Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base

Dear Mr Hoare,

Now that the Committee has been reconstituted, I write to provide a response from the UK Statistics Authority to your predecessors’ report on ‘Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base’, published shortly before the General Election was called. On behalf of the Authority, I would like to express my thanks to them and their supporting staff for launching this timely inquiry and for the report and recommendations.

This report comes at an important time for the official statistical system, with the Authority due to convene the first ‘Statistical Assembly’ and prepare its next strategy for the statistical system, due to be published in July 2025. In the coming months the Authority will also be making a recommendation to government on the future of population and migration statistics in England and Wales, based on advice from the National Statistician.

In sending this response, I would also like to highlight to the Committee our response to Professor Denise Lievesley’s Independent Review of the Authority, which raised many similar issues and themes as the Committee’s report. Below, I broadly address the Authority view of the key points from each section of the Committee’s report and respond to recommendation 5 in more detail. Appended to this, you will also find the individual responses of Professor Sir Ian Diamond, National Statistician and Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation on behalf of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) respectively, addressing their specific recommendations.

The Authority welcomes the Committee’s engagement on the future of the UK’s statistical system and the opportunities presented by your recommendations. We will continue to keep you updated on our work and progress made towards the recommendations aimed at the Authority, the ONS and OSR respectively.

Yours sincerely,
Sir Robert Chote
Chair, UK Statistics Authority

Delivering evidence for the public good

Recommendation 5: It is time to democratise access to data and evidence. The UK Statistics Authority should establish a framework for identifying and prioritising demands for evidence. We recommend that it use a high-level Assembly (of the kind recently recommended by Professor Denise Lievesley) to draw together information from communities across the UK about their needs for evidence and the benefits new evidence would bring, alongside research on data gaps, and public understanding. We further recommend that the UK Statistics Authority submit its findings on the nation’s demands for evidence to Parliament on a triennial basis, for scrutiny by this Committee.

1. The Authority welcomes the Committee’s fifth recommendation, that both a framework and a high-level assembly be established to identify and prioritise demands for evidence, with its findings submitted to PACAC for scrutiny on a triennial basis. Work is already underway to meet these objectives. In April, the ONS published its Strategic Business Plan for 2024-25, setting out our approach to prioritisation in a constrained financial environment. The Plan makes a commitment to securing the stability and quality of our core statistical outputs across five priority areas. In taking on additional work, the ONS will seek to align its resources to activities and programmes where it is uniquely placed to deliver, and that have the highest impact on the strategic priorities.
2. As set out in the Authority’s response to the Lievesley Review, a UK Statistics Assembly will meet for the first time on 22 January 2025. It will bring together users and producers across sectors to discuss and give advice on the UK’s needs for statistics. The insights will be drawn together in a published advisory report, indicating potential priorities and data gaps for scrutiny by users and by your Committee. They will inform delivery planning for the ONS and other official statistical producers.
3. As well as identifying data gaps, the Assembly’s discussions will provide valuable insights on the quality of statistics, to contribute to shaping the OSR’s regulatory work programme. Following the first Assembly in January 2025, the Authority and stakeholders will review the frequency of future events, including the timing of future reporting to Parliament. As Professor Lievesley has pointed out, there is no precise template for an Assembly so the first will inevitably be an experiment from which we can learn.
4. Additionally, across the ONS, producers of statistics regularly engage with users of statistics across existing forums and advisory groups. For example, the ONS Local team (based physically in the nine regions of England as well as Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) act as the front door for local government to access the ONS and the wider GSS, supporting users to make the most of a wide range of data and analysis.
5. Furthermore, the ONS provides accessible digital content to help audiences find, understand, explore, and act upon its content. These include data visualisations and explorer tools, as well as explanatory articles and bite-sized videos to suit different audiences – available both on its own website and via external channels, including social media platforms. To extend the reach of statistics and data to audiences with whom the ONS traditionally has had less engagement, the ONS works with relevant organisations and citizen representative groups, to help disseminate its outputs as well as inform the design of communications.
6. The ONS have also initiated a Citizen Data project with the aim of securely playing back data held on the citizen to the citizen. This will enable ONS to engage directly on a one-to-one basis encouraging individuals to validate their personal data and help to improve characteristics coverage and public trust in the use and storage of administrative data.
7. OSR continuously seeks to embed the principle of statistics for the public good in its regulatory approach. The Code of Practice for Statistics has clear expectations that official statistics support the needs of a wide range of users, alongside policy makers. OSR is in the process of refreshing the Code and will continue to articulate and strengthen its expectations on this principle. One of the areas of focus for the refresh of the Code is a greater focus on user engagement.
8. OSR also conducts research to further understand how official statistics can serve the public good. In its recent think piece, OSR proposed that “official statistics serve the public good as public assets that provide insight, which allows them to be used widely for informing understanding and shaping action”. OSR is also undertaking complementary research into how individuals may use statistics in their personal lives. This research is used to strengthen its regulatory approach, and its advice and requirements on producers of official statistics.
9. As mentioned, the Authority’s current strategy, Statistics for the Public Good, launched in 2020 and will end in July 2025. We will look to engage with the Committee to ensure the next strategy reflects views from users, including Parliament.

Navigating new data sources and technologies

10. The Authority acknowledges the Committee’s high-level findings that there has been an increase in data generated across the UK, with a need to bring together ‘old’ and ‘new’ data sources to make best use of it. Valid concerns are raised about the current provision and proficiency of cross-government data sharing and how if not addressed, this may hamper efforts such as our ambitious future of population and migration statistics programme, which is seeking fully to capitalise on the transformational opportunities offered by administrative data sources.
11. As we outlined in our response to Professor Lievesley’s review, we concur with the notion that a drive is needed from the centre of government to increase incentivisation and ability for departments to share data between them, with the FPMS programme and successful delivery of the Integrated Data Service (IDS) requiring a positive culture shift towards data sharing becoming a reality. Additionally, we seek to be as transparent as possible about what data we are seeking and how we are using them. Thus, we see the benefit in all the recommendations in this section of the report and they are explored in more detail in the ONS response.

Evidence in policymaking

12. Several recommendations in this section are made with a view to ensuring the Analysis Function (AF) has the resource and vision it requires to enact significant change and evaluate its future successes. As part of the privacy section of the report, the Committee also suggests that the AF explore options for improving transparency where personal data is used in official analyses. These recommendations are responded to at length in the ONS’s response, given the National Statistician’s role as Head of the AF.
13. I was pleased to note the Committee’s praise for the OSR’s fantastic work on Intelligent Transparency (IT) and their suggestion that its remit should be widened in scope and government communication professionals be trained in the IT principles. Previous work that the OSR has done in this space, and thoughts on these recommendations, can be seen in their response.

Privacy and ethics in an age of data

14. The Committee’s last recommendation that the Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation should continue to monitor public attitudes on the Government’s use of data is welcomed by the Authority.
15. The Authority pays tribute to the work carried out by the Responsible Technology Adoption Unit (RTAU) in the Department for Science, Industry and Technology (previously CDEI). We also monitor public attitudes towards the use of data and trust in institutions more widely, including an insights paper we published in June 2023. This release summarises our findings on public attitudes, concerns and expectations on the use of data and views on our use of administrative data in publishing statistics.
16. In the past, the Authority has regularly commissioned the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) to assess independently the public’s knowledge of, and trust in official statistics, and how they are produced and used in the Public Confidence in Official Statistics (PCOS) Survey. The most recent PCOS survey results were published by NatCen on 14 May 2024.
17. Additionally, in 2022 and 2023 the ONS was commissioned by the Cabinet Office to run the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions on behalf of the UK Government. The most recent release, for 2023 was published on 1 March 2024. We therefore support this recommendation and would be happy to provide our knowledge and expertise to RTAU to assist with future work seeking to understand public attitudes towards data usage.

Sir Robert Chote, Chair
UK Statistics Authority

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) response addresses the Committee’s recommendations both directly aimed at the ONS, and those where other government departments have joint responsibility. This response focuses on data sharing and the future of population and migration statistics programme, which are inherently linked, and data ethics. It also provides a response to the series of recommendations specifically directed at the Analysis Function.

Data Sharing and the Future of Population and Migration Statistics

Recommendation 1: It is time for Government to do what it promised to do seven years ago, and to join up the UK’s evidence base. Given that the Cabinet Office’s existing initiatives for improving data sharing are self-evidently insufficient, it should in partnership with the Office for National Statistics develop a comprehensive new programme aimed at improving data-sharing for statistical and research purposes. The programme must clearly define deliverables and timelines, and must be owned by a senior responsible officer at an appropriately high level. In line with the recommendations of the Lievesley report, we also recommend that HM Treasury establish mechanisms so that the costs are not borne by individual Departments, but rather centrally. The Cabinet Office should prepare and publish an annual progress report on delivery against the programme.

18. The ONS is strongly supportive of efforts to enhance data sharing across Government. As the largest producer of official statistics, we are dependent on effective data sharing across the public sector and beyond, to support more quality, timely and granular admin-based statistics. The ONS also plays a key role in supporting Government, the devolved administrations and wider academia to access data to support statistical research. As such, the ONS firmly supports the Committee’s recommendation that a cross-government data sharing programme be established.
19. To date, we have worked closely with the Central Digital and Data Office (CDDO) and wider government departments to promote effective data sharing. We also played a leading role in supporting key initiatives to deliver upon the commitments within the 2022-2025 Roadmap for Digital and Data. We have supported a number of initiatives aimed at improving data sharing, including developing the Data Maturity Assessment for Government; the identification (and publication) of Essential Shared Data Assets and developing common governance arrangements to support sharing of data.
20. As the lead delivery partner for the Integrated Data Service, the ONS has also delivered a trusted research environment in the cloud. We are uniquely well placed to facilitate access to a growing library of linked data sources to support collaborative analysis, including to support the development and delivery of Government’s key missions. However, this will only be possible with continued and increased support from key data owners across government.
21. The ONS recognises both the progress that has been made and the substantive challenges that remain to cross-Government data sharing. Therefore, the ONS welcomes the creation of a new Digital Centre of Excellence within the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology. We look forward to working with DSIT to define and implement a programme of work that drives a step change in data sharing to enable statistical and research use cases within Government and beyond.

Recommendation 2: Separately, the Office for National Statistics should publish information on the datasets it is seeking on an annual basis, setting out its rationale for seeking those data, and details on the status of the request – all of which should be made available on the ONS website.

22. The ONS accepts the Committee’s recommendation that we publish information on, and rationale for, the datasets we are seeking on our website annually. This fits well with our strong desire to be transparent about the data we use to support statistical outputs. For example, we already publish a report on the datasets that we have acquired that contain personal identifiers which was most recently updated in July 2024. We are working to expand the coverage of this publication to cover a broader array of alternative and administrative data sources, irrespective of whether the dataset contains personal identifiers or not.
23. We have a broader transparency ambition, which will lead to further publications that provide information about how the data we acquire are processed and the relationship between these data ‘inputs’ and our broad portfolio of statistical outputs. Whilst all the necessary information is available on an individual basis, drawing together all of the elements needed to depict this will require a programme of work across the office, including the development of an enterprise data model. We intend to start with some illustrative examples to test the best ways of presenting what will be a very large amount of information. We will then expand from that point, recognising the need to be both informative and comprehensive.
24. We also acknowledge the importance of being transparent about the data that we have not yet acquired, in both illuminating the progress on key data shares, but also conveying a clear sense of our progress in delivering a viable administrative data based statistical system. Therefore, we agree to add data that is in the process of being acquired to our transparency reporting. We will
develop the best format for these publications, in conjunction with our various suppliers so that we can appropriately convey the status of an acquisition.
25. We recognise that data sharing is a complex process. Various stages are required to mature sharing arrangements and deliver sustainable supplies of data and it is necessary to provide a sense of how mature our sharing arrangements are. We must also ensure that we adhere to commercial sensitivities in naming some suppliers.

Recommendation 4: This Committee’s view – particularly in light of challenges around data-access – is that officials have not yet demonstrated that they can deliver the evidence users need, without a decennial census. We therefore recommend that the Office for National Statistics undertake further work on proposals for the future of migration and population statistics.

26. Both the ONS and the Authority welcome the Committee’s recognition of the opportunities offered by administrative data sources. We also recognise the need to improve the culture of data-sharing across government if we are to maximise those opportunities. This is a challenge that was also highlighted by Professor Denise Lievesley’s review earlier this year, and which the Authority continues to work with partners across the public sector to resolve.
27. Data already held within the public sector mean population and migration statistics can be more consistently accurate and produced more often and quickly. As a result, decision-makers have more, higher-quality, information about local populations, their characteristics, where they live and the public services they need.
28. In line with the Committee’s recommendation, the ONS continues its work to develop and improve admin-based population estimates, using innovative new methods and a wider range of data sources, accounting for quality limitations in the data. We published updated estimates as official statistics in development in July, and aim for these to become the official mid-year population estimates in 2025.
29. The Authority expects to publish its recommendation on the future of population and migration statistics in England and Wales in the coming months. This recommendation will draw on extensive engagement with users of these statistics, including through the public consultation last year, and will include the Authority’s proposed approach to the future of the census in England and Wales.

The Analysis Function

Recommendation 10: We recommend that Government reaffirm its commitment to the analysis function, and that HM Treasury review options for its future funding. If Government truly wishes to improve its use of analysis and deliver better outcomes for the public, it clearly needs to fund that change.

30. The ONS remains committed to the Analysis Function (AF), and as such accepts the principle of this recommendation and is grateful for the Committee’s concern about its future funding model.
31. We believe that funding for a dedicated central AF team is essential to ensure that analysts across the Civil Service have the support they need to deliver better outcomes for the public by providing the best analysis to inform decision making.
32. Therefore, the AF Central Team (AFCT) will work with HM Treasury to assess the best option for future funding. As Head of the AF, I will work with Chief Analysts across government to ensure the profile of the Function continues to be raised.

Recommendation 11: In parallel, the National Statistician should review the analysis function’s scope and standard, with a view to defining an achievable set of next-steps, and clear plans for honest evaluations of the function’s success. This review and subsequent evaluations should be made publicly available, so that Parliament is in future better equipped to scrutinise both the Government’s use of evidence and the progress of the analysis function.

33. The ONS accepts the Committee’s recommendation to review the AF’s scope and standard with achievable next steps in mind and will take the points raised away for further consideration. Subject to gaining sufficient funding for the AFCT, the team will review the scope of the AF, which will be reflected in the updated AF Strategy for 2025-2028. The team will also review the AF standard, focusing on any changes needed to reflect the importance of transparency in analysis.
34. With regards to the evaluation of the AF, subject to funding, the AFCT will evaluate the impact of their work to support analysts across government. It will also undertake a light touch assessment of the impact of analysis more widely, using existing evidence sources, such as the results of the assessment against the AF Standard. This will be complemented by the work of departmental Chief Analysts who are responsible for evaluating the impact of their analysis and whether it is meeting the needs of their decision makers.
35. The AFCT will update the Committee on the findings of this evaluation, via a letter from the National Statistician to the Chair. The AFCT anticipate that this work will be completed by Q2 2025/26. However, further reviews of the standard, and evaluation of the work of the Central Team, will be undertaken as part of our business as usual.

Recommendation 14: We recommend that, at a minimum, governments in future routinely publish the evidence and data underpinning their major policy announcements. Making this happen will not be a straightforward task, and we suggest that in the first instance leaders of the analysis and communications functions develop options to deliver this ambition, for the consideration of Ministers.

36. The ONS accepts the Committee’s recommendation that options be developed for Ministers on the routine publication of evidence and data underpinning major policy announcements in the future. Transparency in evidence and data underpinning policy decisions is an important matter for the AF and was discussed at an AF Board meeting last year. There is a variety of guidance already in existence in this area, including the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, the Analysis Function Standard and OSR’s guidance on Intelligent Transparency.

37. In line with the Committee’s suggestion, the AFCT will work with the Communications Function, and other bodies, such as the Policy Profession, to consider options around the recommendation to routinely publish the evidence and data underpinning their major policy announcements.

Recommendation 15: We recommend that the analysis function explore options for improving transparency around the use of personal data in official analyses, and that this work be made publicly available.

38. The ONS accepts the recommendation that the AF explore options for improving transparency around the use of personal data in official analyses. Subject to sufficient funding, the AFCT will investigate options around what would improve transparency around the use of personal data in official analysis, working with relevant bodies that deal with use of personal data such as CDDO and OSR. The AFCT will complete this work by Q4 2025/26.

Data Ethics

Recommendation 16: It is now time to consolidate the excellent exploratory work that has been done on data ethics, and to embed it more formally into the collection, analysis, and communication of evidence in the UK. We recommend that the Cabinet Office’s Central Digital and Data Office and the Office for National Statistics jointly review the varying data ethics frameworks available to analysts across the UK; considering opportunities for greater consistency, and possible accountability mechanisms, to encourage a wider adoption of data ethics across government.

39. The Authority has worked with the CDDO to develop a common understanding of data ethics in the public sector. Our conversations have resulted in agreement with the recommendation that existing frameworks across the UK be reviewed with the aim of encouraging wider adoption of data ethics across government.
40. Regular working-level meetings between the data ethics teams from both departments have been organised, and discussions have included sharing each team’s learnings in the data ethics space. Together, we have discussed the Authority’s data ethics self-assessment tool and the recent landscape review around the responsible use of data-driven technologies in the public sector for which the Authority participated in an interview, amongst others. The Authority’s Centre for Applied Data Ethics (CADE) continues to monitor the impact of the tool along with providing practical support and thought leadership in the application of data ethics by the research and statistical community.
41. As noted in the Government response, recommendations coming out of the landscape review suggested consolidation work on data and AI ethics guidance across government. We will work with CDDO and other partners across government on this exercise.
42. We also wish to concur with the point raised in the Government response about flexibility and context. We agree that harmonisation is desirable in some instances and have discussed shared opportunities with CDDO. But our objective is to promote and safeguard the production and publication of official statistics, and specifically provide guidance to researchers (from within and outside of government) on the ethics of their research. Therefore, we agree that much of the guidance material we produce must be discrete from general data ethics guidance produced for central government.

Professor Sir Ian Diamond, National Statistician
Office for National Statistics
September 2024

This response from the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) addresses the Committee’s recommendations for OSR as well the recommendations with joint responsibility across other government departments. Our response has focused on the development of a framework for reporting data gaps across the UK, and on provisions for improving intelligent transparency across government.

Data gap reporting framework

Recommendation 6: We recommend that the OSR support this activity by preparing regular and public reports on data gaps in the UK.

43. OSR accepts the Committee’s recommendation to prepare regular and public reports on data gaps in the UK in principle.
44. Identifying and helping statisticians focus on addressing data gaps is an important aspect of our regulatory work. Our domain (topic area) model of regulation allows us to have strong relationships with statistics producers and organisations who publicly advocate for improved statistics. Our annual report, State of the Statistical System, which was last published on 17 July 2024, is our key publication bringing together the insight provided by our regulatory work. It also shares our views on the performance of the statistical system and the challenges facing it. In line with the Committee’s recommendation, we will have an enhanced focus on data gaps in future editions of this report.
45. Our recently published report, “Data Sharing and Linkage for the Public Good: Follow-Up Report” highlights the importance of enabling greater data sharing and linkage, in a secure way, for research and statistics22. This is also relevant to the government’s ability to respond to data gaps.
46. Additionally, OSR is refreshing the Code of Practice for Statistics to ensure that it remains relevant. We are strengthening the emphasis on involving users in decisions about what statistics are required – whether to start, stop or change official statistics. This includes being clear on where and why user needs can and cannot be met, such as addressing information gaps.
47. Noting recommendation 7, in our aforementioned “Data Sharing and Linkage for the Public Good” report, we call for consistent and sustainable funding streams for data sharing, access and linkage initiatives, and specifically for a centralised government funding structure to support data collaboration projects across government. This structure should prioritise a system-level, access-based approach to investment, as well as continue and expand initiatives such as the Shared Outcomes Fund.

Recommendation 9: We recommend that the Office for Statistics Regulation review and publish a report on the adequacy of UK-wide comparable data, by themes, before April 2025.

48. OSR accepts the Committee’s recommendation that we review and publish a report on the adequacy of UK-wide comparable data. Our State of the Statistical System report highlighted the need for producers to work in partnership across the UK and provided examples of where statistics producers are making improvements to UK comparable statistics and data. We will build on this work and publish an update in 2025 which shares our more detailed views on the adequacy of UK comparability.

Improving intelligent transparency across government

Recommendation 12: We commend the OSR for its work on Intelligent Transparency and recommend that it publish an annual report card on departments’ compliance with its guidance, so that Parliament and external bodies might support it in holding departments to account, and making the case for well-informed policy. Recognising that this important work expands the remit of the OSR beyond official statistics, and into the larger world of government analysis, we also suggest that at the next Spending Review, it works with HM Treasury to agree a sustainable funding model for this work, given the vital role it plays.

49. OSR accepts this recommendation and thanks the Committee for its commendation of our work on intelligent transparency (IT). We agree that this would expand the remit of OSR and would therefore need to be appropriately funded.
50. OSR has an intelligent transparency working group tasked to find ways to promote, and embed, the IT principles across government. We are beginning work to develop proposals for a monitoring and reporting approach for IT across departments. The project will consider incentives and formats for departmental reporting, as well as automated tools for OSR to monitor IT on a rolling basis. We will consider these proposals alongside discussions with HM Treasury on a sustainable funding model for this work.

Recommendation 13: We recommend that all government communications professionals are trained on the OSR’s Intelligent Transparency guidance, and that the Government Functional Standard for Communication be updated to make it clear that officials are expected to comply with that guidance.

51. OSR accepts the recommendation that government communications professionals should receive training on IT and would be happy to work in partnership with the Cabinet Office to achieve this.

52. Since the creation of the IT principles, OSR has continued to promote them across government, working with a range of organisations and professions, including the communications profession. We are very encouraged by the response and engagement from departments to date, and the commitment to supporting public confidence in government statistics and data through transparency. Our ambition is to continue to take these principles to new audiences, including ministerial private offices and Special Advisors.
53. We are also exploring ways to provide our IT materials on our website following feedback from sessions we have delivered previously. This includes developing new guidance on adhering to IT principles on social media.
54. As part of our work refreshing the Code, we are looking to articulate our standards relating to IT more clearly and better highlight how they relate to all those in government involved in communicating statistics, data and wider analysis.
55. Relatedly, we wish to express our support for recommendation 14 of the Committee’s report, that future governments should publish the evidence and data underpinning their major policy announcements. We already encourage IT around policy announcements and government decision making and will continue to do so. Our latest report on Analytical Leadership explores our position on this in more detail. Additionally, I included this issue in my letter to Permanent Secretaries at the start of this year’s general election campaign.

Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation
Office for Statistics Regulation
September 2024

Office for National Statistics follow-up written evidence to the Welsh Affairs Committee inquiry on the impact of population change in Wales

Dear Mr Crabb,

I write following my appearance in front of your Committee on 6 December 2023 with my colleague Jen Woolford, as part of the Impact of Population Change in Wales inquiry, and your subsequent letter dated 22 February 2024. I have addressed the queries raised during the session and in the letter in turn.

Population Age and Economic Growth

During our discussion, the committee asked if a “Younger population always positively correlated with economic growth” and I agreed to share some further information on this topic.

There is evidence that average population age tends to be lower in cities and larger towns, and higher in smaller towns and rural areas.  For example, as outlined above the median population age of local authority districts in Wales range from 34.4 years in Cardiff in mid-2022, to 51.1 years in Powys. However, in terms of economic growth there is not a straightforward statistical relationship between population age (or type of area) and economic growthTo illustrate, the highest economic growth rates between 2011 and 2021, did not occur in Wales’ major cities (where population is youngest), but instead occurred in the local authorities of Pembrokeshire, Flintshire, and Merthyr Tydfil. The lowest economic growth, did occur in relatively rural local authorities with older populations, namely Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey and Powys.

The reason why there is not a direct correlation between age and economic growth is that there are a wide range of different factors that can influence economic growth. These will vary by place but can include, for example, an area’s industry mix, its levels of business investment, recent infrastructure improvements and changing consumer demands amongst many other factors.

Economic Inactivity

Rob Roberts MP asked me how the levels of economic inactivity in Wales compare to other parts of the UK.

Mr Roberts quoted that in Wales, 33.8% of working-age people were economically inactive because of long-term sickness. The figure of 33.8% shows that of those who were economically inactive, 33.8% were economically inactive due to long-term sickness, with the remaining 66.2% economically inactive for other reasons.

At the time of the quoted 33.8%, only 23.8% of the population of Wales aged 16 to 64 years was economically inactive. Of these 33.8%, or just over one third were economically inactive due to long-term sickness. Therefore, this represents 8.0% of the whole population aged 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive because of long-term sickness. For the period October 2022 to September 2023, 7.6% of the population of Wales aged 16 to 64 years were economically inactive because of long-term sickness.

Generally, Northern Ireland has the highest percentage of the population who are economically inactive because of long-term sickness, with recent rates in excess of 9% of the population aged 16 to 64 years. Wales tends to be in a group with Scotland, and the North East and North West of England with rates around 7-8.5%. Below this there is a group at around 5.5-6.5% consisting of Yorkshire and The Humber, and the East and West Midlands. Then the East of England, London, South East and South West have the lowest rates at around 4-5%.

Areas of Significant Population Change

During the session, it was discussed if there were any areas in Wales that stood out as having particularly significant levels of population change. Between mid-2011 and mid-2022, the local authority district in which the population is estimated to have increased the most is Newport, where the population increased by 10.8%. Cardiff (7.7%) and Vale of Glamorgan (5.4%) were the only other local authority districts in which population growth exceeded 5% over this period.

Between mid-2011 and mid-2022, there were six local authority districts in which the population is estimated to have decreased. These are Ceredigion (-4.9%), Blaenau Gwent (-4%), Gwynedd (-3.2%), Caerphilly (-1.5%), Isle of Anglesey (-1.2%) and Conwy (-0.9%).

Welsh Speaking Population Change

You asked what Census 2021 data indicated that the number of Welsh speakers in Wales is falling and any data that offers insight into changes in the Welsh speaking population. According to Census 2021, there were around 538,000 people aged three years or older reported as being able to speak Welsh in Wales, or 17.8% of the population.

This is the lowest percentage ever recorded in a census, driven largely by a decrease in reported Welsh speaking among children and young people. Although the percentage of the population able to speak Welsh decreased overall, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of people who can speak Welsh in the young adult groups (16- to 19-year-olds and 20- to 44-year-olds), with decreases in the older age groups.

The percentage of people aged three years or older who can speak Welsh fell between 2011 and 2021 in all of the 22 local authorities in Wales, except in Cardiff, the Vale of Glamorgan, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Merthyr Tydfil. Furthermore, all local authorities saw a decrease in the percentage of 3 to 15-year-olds reported as being able to speak Welsh between 2011 and 2021. The decreases for these age groups tended to be greater in areas with a lower density of Welsh speakers, such as in Blaenau Gwent, Newport and Torfaen.

Information about Welsh language skills in the census is based on a person’s self-assessment of their ability. In some cases, especially for children, Welsh language ability was reported by another person, for example, a parent or guardian. Census 2021 was held during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, on 21 March 2021. This followed periods of lockdown, remote learning for children and many people were working from home. It is not known how the pandemic may have impacted reported Welsh language ability (or perception of the Welsh language ability of others).

Alongside this letter, we have included a spreadsheet that details the change in the number and percentage of Welsh speakers by local authority and age band by comparing Census 2011 data to Census 2021 data.

Community Crisis Point

The Committee also asked us if the ONS has data indicators that can “identify definitively when a community reaches a crisis point”. Generally, this is a very complex question that ONS data alone could not answer. The topic and question would possibly be more holistically explored by local communities and academic experts in this field.

However, on the specific issue of second homes, our data can provide some insight. As part of Census 2021 the ONS has published data on the number of vacant and second homes in England and Wales. Unfortunately, this data is not comparable with 2011 data, so it is not possible to directly compare over time.

The Welsh Government regularly releases council tax dwellings statistics which include information about second homes and did an in-depth look at the variety of statistics available for Wales in the Second Homes: What does the data tell us? publication. ONS works closely with our colleagues in Welsh Government and elsewhere to provide data and statistics that can be used to provide evidence on priority housing topic areas such as second homes.

I hope this evidence is useful to the Committee. Please let us know if there is anything further we can provide as the inquiry continues, or on any other matter.

Yours sincerely,

Emma Rourke

UK Statistics Authority supplementary evidence to the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee’s inquiry on Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base

Dear Mr Wragg,

Following the submission of the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) written evidence to the Committee’s Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base inquiry on 31st August 2023, I then gave oral evidence to the Committee on 5th September 2023.

One of the topics that I am aware the Committee has been interested in, during the course of this inquiry, is analytical capability across government. I am pleased to be able to provide some additional evidence on this topic, as requested.

Analytical Skills

 The Analysis Function (AF) is committed to building skills and knowledge across our community of 17,000 analysts, supporting effective career planning, and ensuring that we have skilled people in the right place at the right time. We have developed a suite of materials, designed to support analysts to navigate their careers across government analysis. These include the AF Career Framework, which features multidisciplinary role profiles and career pathways, as well as career stories showcasing the variety of entry points and available career progression routes.

The Analysis Function remains focussed on providing a learning and skills offer that meets the diverse needs of our community and adds value to the work being delivered by analytical professions and departmental colleagues.

Analysis Function Standard Assessment Framework

In my previous letter dated 5 October, I noted that Departmental Directors of Analysis were asked to undertake a self-assessment against the standard in 2023, for the first time. This process is a framework designed so that organisations can assess how well they are applying all aspects of the Analysis Function Standard. Consequently, this means that the assessment covers issues beyond analytical capability, such as capacity, governance and structures.

The Cabinet Office mandates that all functions conduct such exercises. The assessments were carried out in Q4 of 2023/24 and we had responses from 21 organisations across government. As the assessment is meant to drive improvements within organisations, only high-level information was returned to the

Analysis Function Central team, under the agreement that these responses would not be shared more widely. The returns showed a mixture picture of strengths and weaknesses across government. The summary information returned has been used

to develop further actions to support organisations in meeting the Analysis Function Standard, for example, setting up sessions to share best practice on key areas of the Standard.

Analytical Capability Audit of Policy Professionals

As part of his review of the effectiveness of government functions in 2021, Lord Maude commissioned a review of the analytical capability of policy professionals. The AF worked closely with the Head of the Policy Profession, Tamara Finkelstein, to identify areas of strength in the analytical capability of policy professionals, as well as development areas for improvement. This work further fostered positive working relationships between analysts and policy makers in government.

The report was completed in summer 2022 and has been well received. It is a key evidence base for the analytical skills development agenda across government, for both policy professionals and more widely across the whole Civil Service. This has led to a more robust analytical capability learning offer for all, ultimately ensuring that officials are more comfortable working with and analysing data when developing and delivering public services. The legacy of this work has been highlighted in core reform activities, such as the One Big Thing initiative in 2023, pushing the analytical capability agenda in government.

Cross Government Evaluation Capacity and Capability Survey

An Evaluation Capacity and Capability survey (ECCS) was conducted in Summer 2023. This was in response to a recommendation in the 2021 National Audit Office report Evaluating Government Spending to enhance the evaluation capacity and capability within government. The survey, conducted by the Analysis Function Central Team, aimed to assess government’s specialist evaluation capacity and capability and develop a plan to address any identified shortfalls.

The survey focuses on key research questions regarding evaluation skills and experience, confidence in applying evaluation-related skills, understanding of evaluation concepts among non-evaluation practitioners, engagement between analysts and non-analysts, and areas for improvement. The results are currently being analysed and associated recommendations developed, in collaboration with the Evaluation Task Force. High level results from the survey will be released through a blog.

We remain aware of, and draw on, the work of others who have influence in this space. This includes the Office Statistics Regulation, whom the Committee heard evidence from on 6 February.

I hope that you find this additional information useful. Please do let us know if we can assist the Committee further on the topic of the Analysis Function, or with any of its other inquiries.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

Office for Statistics Regulation supplementary evidence to the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee’s inquiry on Transforming the UK’s Evidence Base

Dear Mr Wragg,

Thank you very much for the opportunity to give evidence to your Committee as part of the Transforming the UK Evidence Base inquiry on 6 February. I enjoyed the session and I hope that you found my evidence useful.

I am writing to provide some supplementary evidence related to comparability of statistics across the UK.

During the session, I set out the expectations we have as the Office for Statistics Regulation for statistics producers on questions of comparability. I emphasised that where there are questions from users around how to compare the performance of public services across the UK, producers in the four nations should recognise and seek to meet that need.

Meeting that need is not straightforward. As I explained, the configuration of public services will probably be different, because of different policy and delivery choices that have been made by the different governments. This is consistent with the concept of devolution, but it does mean that administrative data may be collected and reported on different bases.

However, it is not in our view sufficient for producers to simply argue that statistics are not comparable. They should recognise the user demand, and explain how their statistics do, and do not, compare with statistics in other parts of the UK. And they should also undertake analysis to try to identify measures that do allow for comparison.

A very good example of this approach is provided by statisticians in the Welsh Government. Their Chief Statistician published two blogs on the comparability of health statistics, Comparing NHS performance statistics across the UK and Comparing NHS waiting list statistics across the UK. These blogs recognise the user demand and provides several insights to enable users to make comparisons of NHS performance.

In addition, the Welsh Government’s monthly NHS performance release also highlights what can, and cannot, be compared. For example, it shows that in November 2023, there were approximately 22 patient pathways open for every 100 people, while for England, the figure in November was 13 pathways for every 100 people. More generally, I would commend the Chief Statistician’s blogs as a good example of providing guidance and insight to users across a wide range of statistical issues.

During my evidence session I also mentioned the approach taken by NHS England to highlight the most comparable accident and emergency statistics. NHS England provide a Home Nations Comparison file for hospital accident and emergency activity each year.

More generally, the ONS is leading comparability work across a range of measures. In addition to work on health comparability, they have produced very good analysis of differences in fuel poverty measurement across the four nations.

I hope this additional evidence is useful. I would like to reiterate that these examples show statisticians recognising the core point – that there is a user demand for comparability and that they are taking steps to meet that demand.

Yours sincerely,

Ed Humpherson

Director General for Regulation