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Office for National Statistics correspondence to the Work and Pensions Committee on Defined Benefit pension scheme funding

Dear Sir Stephen,

Thank you for your letter of 13 December 2023 regarding Defined Benefit (DB) pension scheme funding. I am delighted to see the Committee’s interest in these statistics, following on from the work we have done to redevelop the survey. To take your questions in turn:

  1. Whether we have anything to add on the reasons identified by the PFF for the divergence between their estimates and on the value of DB scheme assets and those published from ONS’ Financial Survey of Pension Schemes (FSPS).

The current sample used in the survey began being used in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2022. However, as the FSPS is a quarterly survey, we have collected data from these schemes for more recent time periods, with our most recent bulletin covering data for January to March 2023. The FSPS captures data on asset allocations by type of instrument for private sector defined benefit and hybrid pension schemes, including estimates of LDI pooled fund holdings. These are included in the data tables published alongside the bulletin.

  1. Whether we plan on producing estimates of scheme funding levels in the future.

We collect and publish data on total assets, the net derivatives balance and non-pension entitlement liabilities but do not currently publish data on pension entitlement liabilities. We have an established work programme that recognises the demand for increased insight into UK funded occupations pensions and will explore the possibility of publishing these estimates to provide a full picture of scheme funding levels. This data will be subject to quality assurance and disclosure processes which may limit what we are able to publish.

  1. Whether the FSPS is able to estimate how much of the decline in asset values is due to market disruption, rather than a reflection of asset/liability matching strategies.

The FSPS also collects data on transactions, including acquisitions and disposals, realised and unrealised gains and losses by type of instrument, and investment income data which may provide additional insights into the questions asked by the Committee. We will explore the possibility of publishing this data, subject to quality assurance and disclosure processes. The survey does not directly ask pension schemes about their investment strategies.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if there are any further questions.

Yours sincerely,

Rebecca Richmond

Deputy Director, Financial Sector Accounts and Corporations

Office for National Statistics written evidence submission to the Women and Equalities Select Committee inquiry into the impact of the rising cost of living on women

Dear Ms Nokes, 

 I write in response to the Women and Equalities Select Committee’s call for evidence for their inquiry into the “Impact of the rising cost of living on women”.  

As the Committee is aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the  

largest producer of official statistics in the UK. We aim to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate. As the UK’s National Statistical Institute, the ONS produces a wide range of economic and social statistics, including the latest data and trends about the cost of living and how this is affecting people in the UK.

 Since UK consumer price inflation peaked in October 2022, the cost of living in the UK has been fluctuating. To assist the Committee in understanding how these changes have impacted women, we have prepared a written evidence submission that provides a broad overview of the major after-effects of changes to the cost of living in the UK. This includes looking at the main drivers of rising inflation, food and beverage costs, energy costs, rental prices, among others.  

 This submission also details how data collected in the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey shows women are more likely than men to report difficulties in paying their energy bills and the unlikelihood that they will be able to save money in the future. Alongside this, we have provided analysis of the regional and national differences in how the cost of living has changed in recent months, as well as specifically looking at how those from the lowest income households have felt the effects. 

Changing cost of living

UK consumer price inflation (the rate at which prices faced by consumers change) began accelerating in Spring 2021 and peaked to a 40-year high of 9.6% in October 2022. Although rates are now falling, they have remained high in the year since. In the year to September 2023 the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)was 6.3%, the lowest rate since March 2022.

The main drivers of rising inflation over the last two years have included food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and household services (including rental costs and household energy costs), and transport (including fuel costs).

For food and non-alcoholic beverages, the annual inflation rate to peaked at 19.2% in March 2023, the highest rate in over 45 years. Since then, the annual rate has eased for six consecutive months. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices showed the first month-on-month price reduction in September 2023.

Annual inflation for motor fuels has been negative since March 2023 reflecting the fall in fuel prices from a peak last year, but the drag on headline inflation has eased as fuel prices levelled off and then started to pick up. The price of motor fuels fell by 9.7% in the year to September 2023, compared with a fall of 16.4% in the year to August, reflecting falling petrol and diesel prices over the last year.

Gas and electricity prices rose at 1.7% and 6.7% respectively in the year to September 2023. Between June and July 2023, gas prices fell at record rates of 25.2%. This was largely because of the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) price cap in that month.

Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK have risen by 5.7% in the 12 months to September 2023. Recent analysis showed that private renters on a median household income could expect to spend 26% of their income on a median-priced rented home in England, compared with 23% in Wales and 25% in Northern Ireland, in the FYE 2022. Comparatively, housing purchasing affordability analysis has shown a clear pattern of house prices increasing faster than incomes and UK inflation. In the FYE 2022, for homes in England, average house price to household income ratio was 8.4 (meaning 8.4 years of median income to afford median house price) compared to 6.4 in Wales, 5.3 in Scotland and 5.1 in Northern Ireland.

The annual growth for regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8% in June to August 2023, according to the latest earnings data. This is similar to recent periods and one of the highest annual growth rates since comparable records began in 2001. In real terms (adjusted for inflation), regular pay rose by 1.1% on the year.

The gender pay gap, measured using the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), has been declining over time, and in April 2023 stood at 7.7%. The gap for full time employees is larger for those aged over 40, and for skilled trades occupations (15%) followed by process plant and machine operatives (14.3%). The gender pay gap is higher in all English regions than in Scotland (1.7%), Wales (5.6%) or Northern Ireland (negative 3.5%).

Insights from the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey

The ONS has published a variety of analysis on the impact of the rising cost of living across a range of personal characteristics including sex.

Most recently, the latest article in the roughly quarterly series, Impact of increased cost of living on adults across Great Britain, provided information from the ONS’s Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) during the period February to May 2023. The article detailed the proportion of adults in Great Britain reporting an increase in their cost of living, the actions they are taking as a result, or the proportion of adults experiencing difficulty affording household expenses (such as energy, rent or mortgage payments or food), by personal characteristics including sex, (see tables 1.1, 2.1, 3.1 and 4.1), household size (tables 1.12, 2.12, 3.12 and 4.12), parental status (tables 1.11, 2.11, 3.11 and 4.11) or region (tables 1.3, 2.3, 3.3 and 4.3).

Estimates in these tables show for example, that women (50%) appear more likely to report it was difficult (very or somewhat) to afford their energy payments than men (45%) and appeared less likely to report thinking they will be able to save in the next 12 months (36% among women, 44% among men).

Considering impacts on other groups of the population likely of interest to the committee, these estimates also show that whilst around 1 in 20 (5%) adults reported that in the past two weeks they had ran out of food and had been unable to afford more, this proportion appeared higher among groups including those; receiving support from charities (45%), living in a household with one adult only and at least one child (28%), receiving some form of benefits or financial support (21%), Mixed or Multiple ethnicity adults (14%), Black, African, Caribbean or Black British adults (13%), renters (14%) and disabled adults (9%).

Looking at regional differences amongst people with these and other characteristics has not been examined using this data source due to sample sizes being too small at this level of geography.

Regional and national differences

The ONS has published a variety of subnational statistics that reflect the geographic differences and the impact of the changing cost of living. Subnational data on this topic has largely focussed on housing, energy insecurity and food insecurity.

The latest article on private housing rental prices showed that prices paid by tenants has varied by English region and UK nation. Private rental prices in Northern Ireland increased by 9.3% in the 12 months to July 2023. This is higher than for other UK countries during the same period when prices rose by 5.2% in England, 6.5% in Wales and 5.7% in Scotland.

In the 12 months to September 2023, private rental prices rose by 5.6% in England, 6.9% in Wales and 6.0% in Scotland. Amongst the English regions, London’s annual rent price inflation was 6.2% in the 12 months to September 2023. This was the highest annual increase across the English regions. This was followed by the West Midlands where annual rent inflation (5.7%) was also above the England average annual rise (5.6%). The North East had the lowest annual increase at 4.7% during the same time period.

The ONS has also published recent analysis on monthly repayments for newly issued mortgages over the past year, because of rising interest rates increasing the cost of borrowing. The analysis is based on some key trends from our mortgage repayments calculator tool and includes variation across English regions and UK nations. Although mortgage rates differ, depending on the size of the loan relative to the value of the property being purchased, house price differences between regions has meant that increases to monthly mortgage payments have varied. In particular, London’s higher house prices have resulted in the largest monthly cost increases. Conversely, Northern Ireland’s lower house prices have resulted in the smallest nominal increases to monthly repayments.

In February 2023, the ONS published analysis on the characteristics of adults experiencing energy food insecurity in Great Britain. Adults in the North East, the East of England, and the North West were all more likely to report that they had experienced food insecurity than those living in London. The analysis also showed that there was no geographic difference between adults reporting some form of energy insecurity.

Impact on lowest income households

Between the FYE 2021 and FYE 2022, median household disposable income for the poorest fifth of the population decreased by 3.8% to £14,500; compared to 1.6% increase for richest fifth. The largest contribution to change in disposable income across all households is attributable to original income, driven by a decrease of 4.0% in the poorest fifth of people, compared with an increase of 5.4% in the richest fifth of people.

More specifically, the poorest fifth of people saw a 7.5% decrease in wages and salaries, while the richest fifth saw a 7.8% increase, and a UK wide increase of 3.2%. For the poorest fifth of people, income was further reduced by a real-term reduction in cash benefits of 2.6% (a nominal £80 increase) between FYE 2021 and FYE 2022, which was not fully offset by a reduction in taxes.

Table 1 shows the equivalised (accounting for household composition) household disposable incomes for some groups, as published within the Effects of Taxes and Benefits release. For non-retired one adult households (without children), where the household reference person was a woman, the mean household disposable income was significantly below the UK average. The disposable household income for non-retired one adult households with children was significantly below the mean UK average, however this group is not routinely split by sex of the household reference person. For retired one adult households (both with and without children), where the household reference person was a woman, the mean household disposable income was significantly below the UK average.

Table 1: Annual equivalised (accounting for household composition) household disposable income by household composition, UK, Financial Year Ending 2022

Equivalised Household disposable Income (£)
UK MeanOne adult household (all)One adult household (women)One adult household (men)
Non-retired Households (with and without children)41,200
Non-retired households (without children)39,50036,50041,800
Non-retired households (with children)23,100
Retired households (with and without children)30,90026,70025,00030,100

When comparing spending by the poorest fifth to the richest fifth for FYE 2022, the richest fifth of households’ total weekly expenditure was more than twice that of the poorest fifth of households (£811.20 and £329.80, respectively) . In comparison, mean household disposable income was six times greater in the richest fifth of households than the poorest fifth. The poorest fifth of households continued to spend the greatest proportion of their total expenditure (25%) on housing (net), fuel and power. This is largely because of spending on actual rentals for housing (24% of their total expenditure). Note, housing (net) does not include mortgage payments, this is because mortgage capital payments are not regarded as a consumable item in line and instead add to personal wealth, while interest payments are classified as “other” expenditure, in line with international standards.

We hope this provides some interesting insights for you and the rest of the Committee. Please do not hesitate to let us know if we can provide anything further.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

Office for National Statistics written evidence submissions to the Public Accounts Committee inquiry into Homes for Ukraine

Dear Dame Meg Hillier,

I write in response to the Public Accounts Committee’s call for evidence for their inquiry into Homes for Ukraine.

As the Committee will be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s National Statistical Institute and largest producer of official statistics. We aim to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate. This submission provides evidence from our Homes for Ukraine Survey, which we hope will be of assistance to the inquiry.

Evidence in this submission includes information on receipt of ‘thank you’ payments and the cost-of-living pressures on ability to provide support. Data on hosting duration and intended length of hosting shows that many hosts are providing longer-term accommodation, not just short-term emergency housing. While supporting guests search for their own accommodation, many hosts have experienced difficulties related to unaffordability of housing and lack of a guarantor. Satisfaction with support provided on the scheme to sponsors is quite high but over half have still found hosting challenging.

Background to the Survey


The ONS established the Homes for Ukraine Survey to address a lack of data about the characteristics, motivations, and attitudes of scheme hosts. This complements administrative data available from the Home Office, including arrival numbers. The ONS worked closely with the Home Office and the Department for Levelling-up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) to ensure delivery of timely and relevant analysis on this subject. ONS has consulted and shared its analysis with departments across government.

There have been three ONS-funded sponsor surveys collecting information from registered sponsors:

  • Survey 1 collected information 7 to 14 July 2022 (around 4 months since the scheme launched) from sponsors registered by 7 July 2022. It captured fundamental information from 17,702 sponsors early in the scheme.
  • Survey 2 collected information 21 to 28 November 2022 from 8,770 sponsors recontacted around 4 months since their first survey, with many approaching the end of the initial 6-month hosting period. This followed-up with sponsors to capture changing experiences, focus deeper on urgent issues, and inform evolving policy needs.
  • Survey 3 – collected information 10 to 21 August 2023 from sponsors registered by 8 August 2023. This captured information from 14,851 sponsors, some of whom had been surveyed before.

Analysis of the experiences of displaced Ukrainians who have entered the UK under the Ukrainian Humanitarian Schemes is published in the UK Humanitarian Response Insight Survey series. Generally, this analysis does not distinguish between type of visa scheme so is not included in this written evidence unless specified otherwise.

Most of the evidence presented in this submission is from the most up-to-date sponsor survey, Survey 3 (10 to 21 August 2023). Reference is made to previous surveys only where specified.

Funding provided for the scheme

Sponsors are eligible for a monthly payment from the UK government as a thank you for hosting and some English councils offer discretionary payments to ‘top-up’ thank you payments.

Payments to sponsors – monthly “thank you” payments

Data collected from Survey 3 showed 88% of current hosts reported having received ‘thank you’ payments; 67% received these on time and 21% had received payments but some monthly instalments were either late or missing. Some had not received payments (12%), but for most this was because the first payment was not yet due (5%).

After guests have been hosted in the UK for more than 12 months, monthly ‘thank you’ payments increase from £350 to £500. The following estimates on this page refer to data collected from hosts from Survey 3 in England only.

Most (72%) current hosts were aware of the increase in ‘thank you’ payments. Around 6 in 10 current hosts (64%) strongly or somewhat agree that this increase in payments encouraged them to host for longer. The majority (78%) are very or fairly satisfied with the engagement on the ‘thank you’ payments with their local council since their guests moved in.

Payments to sponsors – top-up “thank you” payments

Data collected from Survey 3, showed nearly half of current hosts in England (46%) received a discretionary top up payment from their local council. Over half (58%) of these said that this has incentivised them to continue hosting.

The English region with the highest proportion of current hosts who had received discretionary top up payments is the South East (66%), compared with the lowest proportion in the North East (9%).

Challenges and future risks

Sponsors are asked to host their Ukrainian guests for a minimum of 6 months. Early on there was some concern among members of the cross-government Russia-Ukraine Analysis Group (RUAG) that after 6 months many sponsors could stop hosting, causing Ukrainian guests to require alternative accommodation. However, data provided from the most recent and previous surveys suggested this risk was lower than first thought.

Hosting duration

Data collected from Survey 3 showed that most hosts (58%) were providing longer-term accommodation until their guests find alternative accommodation and 37% of hosts were providing more permanent accommodation. Only 3% described their hosting arrangement as short-term emergency accommodation.

Analysis from the UK Humanitarian Response Insight Survey (27 April to 15 May 2023) found most adults on the Homes for Ukraine scheme were very or fairly satisfied with their current accommodation (92%). This compares with 87% of adults on the Ukraine Family scheme.

Data collected in Survey 3 showed almost half (48%) of current hosts had been providing accommodation for guests for 12 months or more. Almost a third (31%) had been providing accommodation between 6 and 12 months. A similar proportion of current hosts had been providing accommodation for 3 to 6 months (10%) and less than 3 months (11%).

Hosting intentions

Analysis of data collected from Survey 3 revealed variation in how long current hosts intend to provide accommodation in total. Just over half (51%) reported 18 months or more, compared with 5% who intended to host for less than 6 months.

For the 5% of current hosts who intend for their current hosting arrangement to last under 6 months, the most common reason reported for the length of time was that they only intended to provide sponsorship for this period (25%).

For the 51% of current hosts who intend the current hosting arrangements to last 18 months or more, the most common reason reported for the length of time was that sponsors have built a strong relationship with the guests (67%).

An increase in value of monthly ‘thank you’ payments (54%) would encourage current hosts to continue to provide accommodation beyond their current intended period. However, 1 in 10 current hosts reported that “nothing” would encourage them to host for longer (10%).

Of those who don’t know how long they intend their current hosting arrangement to last (19%), the majority (72%) reported it was because they are unsure what their guests will want to do. Other reasons include needing more information on how extending sponsorship will work (24%).

Challenges helping guests access alternative accommodation

Data collected from Survey 3 showed that of those who are currently hosting guests and have helped them look for private rented accommodation, the majority (69%) reported experiencing barriers during the search. The most common barriers were that “Guests cannot afford to rent privately” (66%) and “Guests cannot provide a guarantor” (50%).

When asked what support they think guests need to help them move into private rented accommodation, or to find independent living arrangements, the most common types of support reported by sponsors were:

  • General information on how to rent in the UK (77%)
  • Financial support (77%)
  • Employment support (66%)

Difficulties experienced during scheme involvement

Current hosts were asked whether they experienced any difficulties during their involvement in the scheme. Data collected in Survey 3 showed that around 7 in 10 (72%) of hosts reported experiencing difficulties.

The difficulty most reported was uncertainty about what will happen to guests after sponsorship ends (38%), followed by difficulties when helping guests with visa applications (25%) and then sponsor application difficulties (19%).

Of the 15% of current hosts who reported difficulties helping guests register with GPs or NHS services, the most common difficulties experienced were the “availability of local services” (74%) and “appointment wait times” (35%).

Interpersonal challenges between guests and hosts

Data collected from Survey 3 showed almost 6 in 10 (58%) current hosts found aspects of hosting challenging.

A quarter (25%) of current hosts reported language barriers as a hosting challenge. Cultural differences between themselves and their guests (16%) and sharing a living space (15%) also made hosting challenging.

Satisfaction with scheme support

Data collected from Survey 3 showed that, of current hosts, previous hosts or those who have guests due to move in, over 6 in 10 (66%) are very or fairly satisfied with the overall support they were offered as a sponsor.

Data collected from Survey 2 suggests just over half of sponsors involved in the scheme were very or fairly satisfied with the management of the scheme (53%) and the communications for the scheme (52%)

Data collected from Survey 3 showed around 6 in 10 sponsors (59%) found accessing information or support regarding the Homes for Ukraine scheme very or fairly easy. This increased from 45% reported in Survey 2 data.

Data collected from Survey 3 showed of current hosts, previous hosts and those who have guests due to move in, most (91%) thought additional support would be useful for sponsors or hosts.

The types of additional support which they reported would be useful included:

  • support with helping guests find employment (46%),
  • support with administrative tasks for guests (45%)
  • support with helping guests find their own accommodation (42%).

Cost of living pressures

Data collected from Survey 3 showed the majority (67%) of current hosts said that the rising cost of living is affecting their ability to provide support.

The most reported additional costs incurred for current hosts were utility costs, such as the cost of fixing things around the property (85%), food costs (46%) and transport costs (45%).

We hope this submission is useful for the Committee’s inquiry. Please let us know if we can provide anything further.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

Office for National Statistics correspondence with the Environmental Audit Committee on Green Jobs

Dear Mr Dunne,

I am writing to you and the Committee to provide an update on recent and upcoming Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) environmental work. This includes work on the UK natural capital accounts, potentially useful background for the Committee’s “role of natural capital in the green economy” inquiry, as well as measuring green jobs, greenhouse gas emissions, and other environment-related publications.

Measuring green jobs

In our March 2023 green jobs update, we outlined our proposed definition, developed through extensive stakeholder engagement: “Employment in an activity that contributes to protecting or restoring the environment, including those that mitigate or adapt to climate change.”

Our September 2023 release, “Experimental estimates of green jobs, UK: 2023”, provided our first estimates of green jobs in the UK, with indicative estimates using three bases – industry, occupation, and firm.

We are continuing to develop the measurement of green jobs, towards increasing timeliness and accuracy, thus enhancing the evidence base on this important issue.

Greenhouse gas emissions (residence based) estimates

On 9 October 2023, we published the latest UK environment accounts, including provisional estimates of greenhouse gas emissions on a residence-basis for 2022, alongside air pollution figures.

In July 2023, we published our first experimental estimates of quarterly UK greenhouse gas emissions on a residence basis, up to Quarter 1 (January to March) 2023. We will be publishing further estimates, up to Quarter 2 (April to June) 2023, on 3 November. We use modelling techniques to provide more timely statistics alongside our annual estimates. While these estimates are different to territorial measures (emissions that occur within the UK’s borders) used to monitor UK emissions targets, produced by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, as they are residence-based, they are comparable with a range of important economic statistics, including gross domestic product (GDP).

Natural capital accounts

We produce the UK Natural Capital Accounts, which monitor the changing capacity and demand for natural resources and the benefits they provide.

Widely regarded as world-leading, these accounts are produced on a consistent basis with the System of National Accounts (SNA) used to produce Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and so help to understand the links between the environment and economic statistics. As they are produced to UN standards and guidance, they are also broadly internationally comparable.

We have continued to develop our methodology, updating the “Principles of UK natural capital accounting” in June, outlining how we interpret and apply international guidelines to the UK context.

We published the latest urban habitat accounts in September.  A summary of the latest UK natural capital accounts was also published in the Blue Book 2023 on 31 October, ahead of the full accounts being published in November. We have previously produced stand‑alone accounts for Scotland and England, and November’s release will feature breakdowns for all four UK nations for the first time.

Additionally, these natural capital accounts are an important element of our work to better understand inclusive wealth, the concept proposed in the HM Treasury-commissioned Dasgupta Review of the Economics of Biodiversity.

Businesses

We are also regularly using our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) to understand business responses to environmental issues.

In the period 7 to 20 August 2023, we asked UK businesses about climate change, finding 39% to be “very” or “somewhat concerned”, 44% “not concerned” and 17% “not sure”.

In terms of actions, 7% of businesses reported monitoring climate related risks, 4% having a climate change strategy, 3% having a greenhouse gas emissions target and 1% having a target that includes the supply chain. We also found that 3% of businesses reported monitoring nature or biodiversity risks, and 2% having a nature or biodiversity strategy.

In the period 24 July to 6 August 2023, 75% of businesses reported that they had not assessed the risks of any of the specified climate change effects (water scarcity, coastal erosion, increased flooding and temperature increases).[2] Of those that had assessed these risks, 28% had not taken any action, 18% did not expect to be impacted, while 18% reported they had been unable to take action either because of costs, or the lack of information or guidance.

Our BICS release, scheduled for 16 November[3], will look at barriers to business actions and whether climate change impacts are considered in businesses investment plans.

Individuals

We also continue to publish fortnightly statistics about issues of concern in Public Opinions and Social Trends.

The issue for the survey period 4 to 15 October 2023 found that, when asked about the important issues facing the UK today, the fourth most commonly reported issue was “climate change and the environment”, by 62% of adults in Great Britain.

We are planning further insights on public perceptions to the environment in the coming months. Our next update to our measures of national well-being dashboard, which includes a measure tracking pro-environmental lifestyle changes to tackle environmental issues, is on 10 November 2023.

Other relevant publications

We published “Climate-related mortality, England and Wales, 1988 to 2022” as experimental statistics in September, showing an estimated 4,507 deaths associated with the hottest days in England in 2022.

Our annual energy efficiency of housing release was also published on 1 November. We are also looking at the feasibility of linking energy performance certificate data to Census data to understand more about the households in high and low-rated energy efficient properties.

We would be happy to brief the Committee further on any aspect of our work if helpful.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

Office for National Statistics follow-up written evidence to Welsh Parliament’s Culture, Communications, Welsh Language, Sport, and International Relations Committee (English and Welsh)

Dear Ms Jewell,

Thank you for your letter dated 3 October 2023 following up on several points raised during our meeting with the Committee on 21 September 2023 on the future of population and migration statistics in England and Wales.

Feedback from the 2023 International Census Forum

 The 2023 International Census Forum (ICF) was held in Montreal between 2-5 October. There were representatives in attendance from Canada, the United States of America, New Zealand, Australia, Ireland, Scotland, England & Wales, and Northern Ireland.

The subject of language data collection in the Census was raised at this ICF. In particular, there was discussion around how language is collected in the Census and whether any specific challenges had been experienced. Broadly, no country reported experiencing significant difficulties in collection or reporting.

As an example, in the Canadian Census of Population there are four questions on language. These are: can the person speak English or French well enough to conduct a conversation; what language is spoken on a regular basis at home; what language is spoken most often at home; what is the language first learned at home in childhood and still understood.

Countries reported no issues relating to sense of belonging or any other significant issues when comparing Census with Surveys.

As part of the ICF Communities of Practice (CoP) framework, technical working groups exist to carry work forward in a collaborative way. Language collection would come under the data collection CoP and so best practice and approaches will continue to be shared between countries in this working group.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Welsh Government joint work plan on coherence of Welsh language statistics

We recognise the importance of robust data on Welsh language skills for the Welsh Government, to measure progress against the aim of a million Welsh speakers by 2050. We have conducted initial research into the potential of administrative datasets to provide information about Welsh language skills variables, in particular from education sources. This research has suggested that there is comprehensive coverage of Welsh language skills for school age children. However, the administrative sources available do not allow for production of estimates of Welsh speaking at local authority level based on population characteristics such as age and sex.

We recognise that alternative means of data collection may be needed to produce robust Welsh language statistics, for example through government departments’ admin data collection or through surveys. We are keen to work with Welsh government to explore administrative sources further, as well as to explore the use of local data sources to provide this information.

Whilst we work to improve the quality of the administrative data, we will continue to use survey data where required to ensure robust statistics on Welsh language skills are available for policymakers and other data users. We are working closely with Welsh Government colleagues and are jointly conducting an ambitious workplan of research to understand the quality of current data collection sources.

The first results from this workplan have been published and can be found in our joint Differences between estimates of Welsh language ability in Census 2021 and household surveys article. This workplan will continue into 2024 and will help to inform Welsh Government’s response to the National Statistician’s recommendation following the consultation on the future of migration and population statistics in England and Wales.

Please do let us know if you have any other questions, and if we can help the Committee further on either of these topics or any other matters.

Yours sincerely,                                                                                                                

Ruth Studley, Jen Woolford

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Annwyl Ms Jewell,

Diolch am eich llythyr dyddiedig 3 Hydref 2023 yn cymryd camau dilynol mewn perthynas â sawl pwynt a godwyd yn ystod ein cyfarfod gyda’r Pwyllgor ar 21 Medi 2023 ar ddyfodol ystadegau am y boblogaeth a mudo yng Nghymru a Lloegr.

Adborth o Fforwm Cyfrifiad Rhyngwladol 2023

 Cynhaliwyd Fforwm Cyfrifiad Rhyngwladol 2023 yn Montreal rhwng 2 a 5 Hydref. Roedd cynrychiolwyr o Ganada, Unol Daleithiau America, Seland Newydd, Awstralia, Iwerddon, yr Alban, Cymru a Lloegr, a Gogledd Iwerddon yn bresennol.

Cafodd y mater o gasglu data am iaith yn y cyfrifiad ei drafod yn y Fforwm hwn. Yn benodol, cafwyd trafodaeth ynglŷn â sut y caiff gwybodaeth am iaith ei chasglu yn y cyfrifiad ac a oes unrhyw heriau penodol wedi’u nodi. Yn fras, ni nododd unrhyw wlad ei bod wedi cael anawsterau sylweddol wrth gasglu nac adrodd.

Er enghraifft, yng Nghyfrifiad o Boblogaeth Canada, mae pedwar cwestiwn am iaith, sef: a yw’r person yn gallu siarad Saesneg neu Ffrangeg yn ddigon da i gynnal sgwrs; pa iaith a gaiff ei siarad yn rheolaidd yn y cartref; pa iaith a gaiff ei siarad amlaf yn y cartref; pa iaith a gaiff ei dysgu gyntaf yn y cartref yn ystod plentyndod ac sy’n cael ei deall o hyd.

Ni nododd gwledydd unrhyw broblemau mewn perthynas ag ymdeimlad o berthyn nac unrhyw faterion eraill o bwys wrth gymharu’r Cyfrifiad ag Arolygon.

Fel rhan o fframwaith Cymunedau Ymarfer y Fforwm, mae gweithgorau technegol yn bodoli er mwyn symud gwaith yn ei flaen mewn ffordd gydweithredol. Byddai casglu gwybodaeth am iaith yn rhan o’r Gymuned Ymarfer ar gyfer casglu data ac felly bydd arferion gorau a dulliau gweithredu yn parhau i gael eu rhannu rhwng gwledydd yn y gweithgor hwn.

Cynllun gwaith ar y cyd y Swyddfa Ystadegau Gwladol (y SYG) a Llywodraeth Cymru ar gydlynu ystadegau am y Gymraeg

 Rydym yn cydnabod pa mor bwysig yw cael data cadarn ar sgiliau Cymraeg i Lywodraeth Cymru, er mwyn mesur cynnydd yn erbyn y nod o gael miliwn o siaradwyr erbyn 2050. Rydym wedi gwneud gwaith ymchwil cychwynnol i’r posibilrwydd o ddefnyddio setiau data gweinyddol i ddarparu gwybodaeth am newidynnau sgiliau Cymraeg, ac o ffynonellau addysg yn benodol. Mae’r ymchwil hon wedi awgrymu bod sgiliau Cymraeg plant oedran ysgol yn cael eu cwmpasu’n gynhwysfawr. Fodd bynnag, nid yw’r ffynonellau gweinyddol sydd ar gael yn caniatáu i amcangyfrifon o sgiliau siarad Cymraeg gael eu cynhyrchu ar lefel awdurdod lleol yn seiliedig ar nodweddion y boblogaeth fel oedran a rhyw.

Rydym yn cydnabod y gall fod angen defnyddio dulliau eraill o gasglu data er mwyn cynhyrchu ystadegau cadarn am y Gymraeg, er enghraifft drwy brosesau casglu data gweinyddol adrannau’r Llywodraeth neu drwy arolygon. Rydym yn awyddus i weithio gyda Llywodraeth Cymru i ymchwilio ymhellach i ffynonellau gweinyddol, yn ogystal ag ystyried ffyrdd o ddefnyddio ffynonellau data lleol i ddarparu’r wybodaeth hon.

Wrth i ni weithio i wella ansawdd y data gweinyddol, byddwn yn parhau i ddefnyddio data o arolygon pan fo angen i sicrhau bod ystadegau cadarn am sgiliau Cymraeg ar gael i’r rhai sy’n llunio polisïau a defnyddwyr data eraill. Rydym yn gweithio’n agos gyda chydweithwyr yn Llywodraeth Cymru ac rydym yn cynnal cynllun gwaith ymchwil uchelgeisiol ar y cyd er mwyn deall ansawdd ffynonellau casglu data cyfredol.

Mae canlyniadau cyntaf y cynllun gwaith hwn wedi cael eu cyhoeddi a gellir dod o hyd iddynt yn ein herthygl ar y cyd, Gwahaniaethau rhwng amcangyfrifon o allu yn y Gymraeg yng Nghyfrifiad 2021 ac arolygon aelwydydd. Bydd y cynllun gwaith hwn yn parhau i 2024 a bydd yn helpu i lywio ymateb Llywodraeth Cymru i argymhelliad yr Ystadegydd Gwladol yn dilyn yr ymgynghoriad ar ddyfodol ystadegau am y boblogaeth a mudo yng Nghymru a Lloegr.

Rhowch wybod i ni os oes gennych unrhyw gwestiynau eraill, ac os gallwn helpu’r Pwyllgor ymhellach mewn perthynas â’r pynciau hyn neu unrhyw faterion eraill.

Yn gywir,                                                                                                               

Ruth Studley, Jen Woolford

Office for National Statistics correspondence to the Welsh Affairs Committee on the defence industry in Wales

Dear Mr Crabb,

I was glad to host the Welsh Affairs Committee at our Newport office on 13 July 2023.

During the visit, a member of the Committee mentioned your inquiry into The Defence Industry in Wales. I am delighted to provide the annexed briefing with additional information relating to the economic activity of the defence industry within Wales, to support the inquiry.

I hope that this is helpful and please do not hesitate to contact us if there is anything further we can assist with.

Yours sincerely,

Mike Keoghan

Deputy National Statistician for Economic, Social and Environmental Statistics

 

Defence Industry in Wales

 

Research and Development

There is no data available on defence industry expenditure on Research and Development (R&D) in Wales. The experimental Wales public-funded gross capital and non-capital expenditure on R&D was £361 million (£46 million in-house performed R&D and £315 million purchased or funded R&D) during the financial year ending 2021.

While the Business Enterprise Research and Development survey collects data on defence R&D, it does not break this down regionally. Analysis suggests that due to the small number of businesses that perform R&D on defence specifically in Wales, estimates would not meet ONS disclosure methodology and therefore could not be published at that level.

Night-time economy

The percentage of night-time workers (people who either work during the evening or night) in the public, administration, defence and the compulsory social security sector was 1.6% of the entire UK workforce in 2022 (equivalent to 6.9% of all night-time workers).

In general, 30.5% (435,000) of workers in Wales were night-time workers, the highest proportion of night-time workers compared to the rest of the regions and countries in the UK in 2022.

In Wales, Merthyr Tydfil local authority had the highest proportion of employees in night-time industries (people who work in an industry which has an above proportion of night-time workers) with 56.7% in 2022 (an increase from 49.5% in 2012).

Defence industry workforce

In the latest Workforce jobs data, jobs by public administration and defence industries (SIC 2007) have increased in Wales from 5.9% (85,000) in 2017 to 6.9% (101,000) in 2023.

The total number of employees estimated for Great Britain in 2021, classified against the industry defence activities, was 55,000 (54,700 public sector and 300 private sector), Manufacture of weapons and ammunition had 12,800 employees and manufacture of air, spacecraft, and related machinery had 73,500 employees.

In 2021, there was an estimated 99,000 employees in Wales working in the public administration broad industry group, of which 98,800 employees were in the public sector and 300 employees were in the private sector. There were 74,500 full-time employees and 24,500 part-time employees. Information on the size and characteristics of the UK armed forces population is produced by the Ministry of Defence. If you require any further information or data relating to this, you should contact the MOD directly.

UK armed forces veteran population

In the 2021 Census, Conwy was the Local Authority with both the highest proportion of veterans (5.9%) and the highest proportion of households with at least one veteran (10.2%) in Wales. Pembrokeshire was the second highest for proportion of veterans (5.7%), and the Isle of Anglesey was the second highest for proportion of households with at least one veteran (9.9%). These local authorities all contain or are located near military establishments, suggesting that UK armed forces veterans tend to stay in the same areas once they have left service.

Industry turnover

The number of businesses in Wales generating a turnover in the manufacture of air, spacecraft, and related machinery industry sector has fallen by half from 60 businesses in 2018 to 30 in 2022. In 2022, 5 businesses in this industry reported a turnover between £0 to £49,000; 15 reported £50,000 to £99,000; and 5 businesses reported £100,000 to £199,000. However, in 2018, 10 businesses reported generating a turnover between £0 to £49,000; 35 reported £50,000 to £99,000; 10 reported £100,000 to £199,000; and 5 businesses generated a turnover over £50,000,000.

The manufacture of weapons and ammunition industry sector in Wales includes 5 businesses generating a turnover between £0 to £49,000 in 2022, the total number of businesses has remained the same since 2010.

Office for National Statistics written evidence submission to the Women and Equalities Select Committee inquiry into the rights of older people

Dear Ms Nokes,

I write in response to the Women and Equalities Select Committee’s call for evidence for their inquiry into the “Rights of Older People”.

As the Committee will be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s National Statistical Institute (NSI) and largest producer of official statistics. We aim to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate.

Census provides an in-depth picture of the intersectionality of people aged 65 years and over in England and Wales, showing a high proportion have disabilities or provide unpaid care. The characteristics of people aged 50 years and over highlight that older people are becoming more diverse and policy for older people will need to consider this in coming years.

Regarding participation in the labour market, the Over 50s Lifestyle Study found that workers who have workplace support are more likely to stay in the workforce. Flexible working is seen as the most important reason for choosing to return, with levels of support differing across industries. Health also seems to be a barrier to re-entering the workforce, with over a half of workers who had left the workforce but not returning, reporting having current physical and mental health conditions. Additionally, productivity has fallen, and economic inactivity has risen among 50—64-year-olds.

Intersectionality:

Census 2021

The census currently provides the most detailed snapshot of the entire population, with the same core questions asked to everybody across England and Wales. The UK Statistics Authority has assigned National Statistics status to Census 2021 outputs, providing assurance that these statistics are of the highest quality and value to users.

Census 2021 achieved a very high response rate of 97%. We ensure the census results reflect the whole population by using statistical methods to estimate the number and characteristics of adults who were not recorded on a census response.

Quality considerations along with the strengths and limitations of Census 2021 more generally, are provided in our Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for Census 2021.

Intersectionality can be explored further using our Create a custom dataset tool. This allows the user to select multiple variables to explore the characteristics of the population of England and Wales.

The following section is based on England and Wales only, as the ONS delivered Census 2021 in England and Wales. National Records of Scotland are due to publish multivariate outputs from Scotland’s 2022 Census in winter 2024/25, and Northern Irelands 2021 Census results are available from Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

An ageing population

Census 2021 results show that the population of England and Wales has continued to age since 2011. The number of people aged 65 years and over increased from 9.2 million in 2011 to over 11 million in 2021 and the proportion of people aged 65 years and over rose from 16.4% to 18.6%. In 2021, 38.0% of people living in England and Wales were over 50.

Over half (54.2%) of people aged 65 years and over in 2021 were female. The proportion of the population who are female increases with age; 81.0% of centenarians (aged 100 years and over) were female.

Age and sex by disability

Analysis published by the ONS demonstrates that the proportion of people who are disabled increases with age, and a higher proportion of females have disabilities at older ages than males. For example, of all females aged 55 to 59 in England, 22.7% were disabled, compared with 19.0% of males of the same age. The same pattern is seen in Wales. Of all females aged 55 to 59 in Wales, 27.6% were disabled compared to 23.2% of males. As this population gets older, so does their likelihood of being disabled. You can explore this in more detail in our Disability by age, sex and deprivation, England and Wales: Census 2021 article.

Figure 1: Age-specific percentages of disability by age group and sex, England 2021

Graph showing age-specific percentages of disability by age group and sex, England 2021

Source: Office for National Statistics For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

Figure 2: Age-specific percentages by age group and sex, Wales 2021

Graph showing the percentage of the population aged 65 years and over identifying with different religions, 2021, England and Wales

Source: Office for National Statistics For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

Analysis on older people living in care homes is explored in our ‘Older people living in care homes in 2021 and changes since 2011’ article, with particular focus on the 65+ age group. Of the care home population aged 65 years and over in 2021 in England and Wales, 89.3% were disabled.

Unpaid care

In 2021, just over 1 in 10 people aged 65 years and above (almost 1.2 million) in England and Wales were unpaid carers.

Higher percentages of women aged 65 to 74 years were unpaid carers than men. Around the same percentage of women and men were providing unpaid care at ages 75 to 79 years. At 80 years and over, a higher percentage of men than women were carers. For more information, see our Unpaid care by age, sex and deprivation, England and Wales: Census 2021 article.

Figure 3: Percentage of population aged 65 years and over providing unpaid care, by hours, by five-year age

Graph showing the percentage of population aged 65 and over proviing unpaid care, by hours, by five-year age

Source: Census 2021 from Office for National Statistics For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

Age and sex by sexual orientation

In 2021, the proportion of people aged 65 to 74 years identifying as LGB+ was slightly less than 1 in 100 (0.84%). This decreased to 0.37% for those aged 75 years and over. Males were more likely to identify as LGB+ in these age groups. Of males aged 65 to 74 years, 1.15% identified as LGB+ compared with 0.55% of females. This decreased for both males and females aged 75 years and over as 0.19% of females identified as LGB+ compared with 0.60% of males.

The proportion of people in the aged 55 to 64 years age group who identified as LGB+ was 1.98% for males and 1.21% for female. Therefore, the proportion of people aged 65 years and over who identify as LGB+ is expected to increase over the next decade.

The age-sex breakdown of people identifying as LGB+ can be found in our article Sexual orientation: age and sex, England and Wales: Census 2021 and more specific age breakdowns of the older population in our Profile of the older population living in England and Wales in 2021 and changes since 2011 article. Changes between 2011 and 2021 cannot be compared as a question on sexual orientation was not asked in 2011.

Higher proportions of disabled people were LGB+ than the general population. For further information see our article Protected characteristics by disability status, England and Wales: Census 2021.

Age and sex by ethnicity

More than 9 in 10 of the population aged 65 years and over identified under the high-level “White” ethnic group on the 2021 Census (93.6%).

However, the older population has become more ethnically diverse since 2011. The percentage of the population aged 65 years and over who identified under the high-level “White” ethnic group on the 2011 Census was 95.5%.

From Census 2021 data we can see that ethnic diversity reduces with age. The proportion of people who identified under the high-level “White” ethnic group was:

  • 7% of people aged 65 to 74 years
  • 4% of people aged 75 to 84 years
  • 2% of people aged 85 years and over

Looking at those aged 65 years and over by a 20-category ethnic grouping, on Census 2021:

  • 1% identified as “White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British”
  • 9% as “White: Other White” (this means other than “White: English, Welsh Scottish, Northern Irish or British”, “White: Irish”, “White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller” and “White: Roma”)
  • 8% as “Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: Indian”
  • 5% as “White: Irish”
  • 8% as “Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African: Caribbean”
  • 8% as “Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: Pakistani”

Percentages for the rest of the ethnic groups can be found on the ONS’ create a custom dataset tool.

Considering the split between males and female for the older population across the 20-category ethnic group breakdown, there were slightly more males than females for those aged 65 years and over who identified as “White Roma” (50.5% males, 49.5% females). Furthermore, for those who identified as “Other ethnic group: Arab” the skew towards males was stronger: 60.1% males, 39.9% females.

For all other ethnic groups there were more females than males in the 65 years and over age group. This ranged from 51.0% females for those who identified as “Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: Pakistani” to 60.7% females for those who identified as “White: Other”.

The ONS have produced statistics on age group breakdowns by ethnic group at older ages in our article Profile of the older population living in England and Wales in 2021 and changes since 2011. More detailed analysis of the population by age, sex and ethnic group can be found in our article Ethnic group by age and sex, England and Wales: Census 2021.

For information on how disability varies by ethnic group, see our article Protected characteristics by disability status, England and Wales: Census 2021.

Age and sex by religion

The majority (72.2%) of people aged 65 years or over in England and Wales identified as Christian on the 2021 Census. The likelihood increased across older age groups:

  • 4% of people aged 64 to 74 years
  • 1% of people aged 75 to 84 years
  • 4% of people aged 85 years and over

In comparison with the 2011 Census, the religious profile of the older population has become more diverse. The percentage of those aged 65 years and older who identified as Christian decreased from 80.4% in 2011 to 72.2% in 2021. The percentage reporting no religion and all other religions has increased, except for the percentage reporting “Jewish”, which has stayed the same.

Figure 4: Percentage of the population aged 65 years and over identifying with different religions, 2021, England and Wales

Graph showing the percentage of the population aged 65 and over identifying with different religions, in 2021, England and Wales

Source: Census 2021 from Office for National Statistics For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

The largest change has been in the percentage of the older population who reported no religion. This increased from 8.5% in 2011 to 17.5% in 2021, with men aged 65 years and over more likely to report no religion (21.9%) than women in this age group (13.8%).

The ONS have produced statistics on age group breakdowns by religious affiliation at older ages in our article Profile of the older population living in England and Wales in 2021 and changes since 2011. More detailed analysis of the population by age, sex and religion can be found in our article Religion by age and sex, England and Wales: Census 2021.

For information on how disability varies by religious group, see our article Protected characteristics by disability status, England and Wales: Census 2021.

Age and sex by marriage and civil partnership status and living arrangements

In 2021, 58.3% of the population aged 65 years and over in England and Wales were married or in a civil partnership (including those who were separated but still legally married or in a civil partnership). This compares with 46.9% of the population aged 16 and over as a whole. Analysis of legal partnership status of people aged 65 and over is available here.

Same-sex marriages and all civil partnerships accounted for less than 0.3% of legal partnerships of people aged 65 and over:

Of people aged 65 years and over, 12.2% were divorced (or in a dissolved civil partnership), 23.1% were widowed (or a surviving partner from a civil partnership) and 6.3% were had never been married or in a civil partnership.

Nearly a quarter (23.1%) of people aged 65 years and over were widowed (or a surviving partner from a civil partnership), a higher proportion of women were widowed. The proportion of older people who were widowed fell between 2011 and 2021, with larger decreases for women than men as the gap between life expectancy of males and females decreases.

Women were more likely to be widowed than men, with the difference increasing across older age groups. Women were also more likely to be divorced than men.

This article explains the trends in marriage and civil partnership status between 1991 and 2021 broken down by age and sex[2].

Compared with 2011, the percentages of men and women who were widowed in 2021 were lower across all older age groups, with larger decreases for women than men as the gap between life expectancy of males and females decreases. Remarriage rates at older ages have also increased since 2011.

The proportion of people who have never been married or in a civil partnership is increasing across all age groups under 70.  Therefore, the proportion of older people who have never been married is expected to increase as marriage rates fall. The proportion of people between 50 and 65 who have never been married is increasing.

Cohabitation is becoming more common at older ages. People living in a couple and cohabiting at the age of 50 to 54 increased from 13.9% in 2011 to 19.4% in 2021. For 55- to 59-year-olds, this rate increased from 10.5% in 2011 to 16.4% in 2021. For 60- to 64-year-olds, the rate increased from 7.6% in 2011 to 12.5% in 2021. Read more about living arrangements in our article People’s living arrangements in England and Wales: Census 2021.

Disability and marriage and civil partnership status

A third of disabled adults were married in 2021 (34.2% in England and 34.1% in Wales) compared with just under half of non-disabled people (47.1% in England and 45.1% in Wales); the percentage of disabled people who had never married, separated, been widowed or divorced was higher compared with non-disabled people.

The difference between disabled and non-disabled people who reported being married was greatest for those aged between 50 and 64 years. In England, 45.8% of disabled people were married, compared with 63.0% of non-disabled people. In Wales, these figures were 47.3% and 63.5% respectively.

A higher percentage of disabled people than non-disabled people were widowed at all ages. Around a quarter of the overall population aged 65 years and over were widowed[1]. The difference in widower status between disabled and non-disabled people was greatest for ages 85 years and over, where widower status was at its highest.

Consultation on the future of population and migration statistics

The ONS recently held a public consultation on our ambitious plans for transforming population and migration statistics to create a sustainable system for producing essential, up-to-date statistics on the population. High-quality, timely population statistics are essential to ensure people get the services and support they need within communities and nationwide. We have consulted to ensure that the population and migration statistics and analysis we produce continue to meet the changing needs of policy makers, citizens, and other data users.

The public consultation closed on 26 October. We would be happy to update the Committee when we publish our findings.

Labour Market Participation:

Labour market participation among older age groups has received significant attention since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. The years leading up to the pandemic had been characterised by declining rates of economic activity across the population as a whole, including those aged over 50.

The economic inactivity rate for those aged 50-64 reached a low of 25.2% in December 2019 to February 2020. Since the pandemic however, the inactivity rate for those aged 50-64 has trended upwards, peaking at 27.7% in May to July 2022, and remaining elevated at 26.7% in the latest data. By June to August 2023, the number of inactive people aged 50-64 was 270,000 higher than in December 2019 to February 2020.

The Over 50s Lifestyle Study

The Over 50s Lifestyle Study was set up as a rapid response to the rise in economic inactivity for adults aged 50 and over since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The survey was carried out for two waves: wave 1 between 8 to 13 February 2022. It covered adults in Great Britain aged 50-70 who had previously told us they were inactive in the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey in 2021. Wave 1 achieved a sample of 13,803. Wave 2 asked adults in Great Britain aged 50-65 (up to working age population) between 10 to 29 August 2022 achieving a sample size of 23,490.

Wave 1 and 2 focused on understanding the reasons and motivations for leaving work for those who became inactive. Wave 2 also included those who were still active at the time of data collection to understand what motivated them to remain in work. Factors such as support in the workplace, health, skills and job appeal were identified as possible reasons for work retention among adults aged 50 and above. These factors are discussed in greater detail below.

Access to support

Access to support may be a factor in retaining the workforce. Those who have never left the workforce were more likely to say they have access to support from their employer (all categories excluding flexible working) than those who left work (either before or after the pandemic) and have returned to work.

The majority (95%) of people working within the Civil Service and local government reported access to support with high proportions of people gaining access to; flexible working (80%), occupational health (71%) and reasonable adjustments for health and wellbeing (70%).

While over half (51%) of adults working in Personal Services (e.g., hairdressers or tattooists) reported none of the above in terms of access to support, followed by those working in Hospitality (48%) and Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (46%).

Health

Mental health and disability were more common reasons for not returning to work for the younger aged group. Those who had left work since the pandemic and had not returned were more likely to have a physical or mental health condition or illness (51%) than those that left since the pandemic and returned to work (43%).

Just under one in five (18%) of those who had left work since the pandemic and had not returned said they were currently on an NHS waiting list for medical treatment. Similar proportions were reported for men (17%) and women (19%), and across age bands (18% for 50-to-54 years, 19% for 55-to-59 years and 16% for 60-to-65 years). Among those who left their previous job due to a health-related condition (stress, mental health, illness, or disability), the proportion on an NHS waiting list increased to 35%.

Skills

Those in their early 50s were generally more likely to want to upskill than any other age group. Around 8 in 10 (82%) adults who left work since the pandemic, and had not returned, felt that they had the right skills to get a new job. This compared with 74% of all adults aged 50 to 65%.

Among those who left since the pandemic, had not returned but would consider working in future, the majority (59%) said that they would not like to improve on any of the suggested training. 15% of all adults said they would like to improve on their advanced IT skills.

Job Appeal

Working flexibly was reported to be an important consideration when looking for work. Among adults aged 50-to-65 who have left their job since the start of the pandemic and would consider returning to work (58%), the most important factors when choosing a paid job were; flexible working hours (32%), good pay (23%), and being able to work from home (12%).

More people appeared to be taking up flexible working when returning to work, which may be due to there being more flexible working options available since the pandemic. Among those who left work since the pandemic and had returned, 11% had accessed flexible working in their previous job compared to 29% when returning to the workforce.

Figure 5: Most important factors when choosing a paid job by age-group, Great Britain, 10 to 29 August 2022[1],

Graph showing the most important factors when choosing a paid job by age-group in Great Britain, 10 to 29 August 2022

Source: Office for National Statistics For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

We hope this submission is useful for the Committee’s inquiry. Please let us know if we can provide anything further.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

 

[1] Notes: 1. Base: Adults aged 50 to 65 years who have left their job since the start of the coronavirus pandemic (March 2020) and have not returned 2. Respondents were able to choose more than one option. 3. The chart includes the most popular response options. Other response options were included in the survey.

Office for National Statistics written evidence submissions to the Health and Social Care Committee inquiry into men’s health

Dear Mr Brine,

I write in response to the Health and Social Care Committee’s call for evidence for the inquiry into Men’s Health.

As the Committee will be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s National Statistical Institute and largest producer of official statistics. We aim to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate. We produce a wide range of health publications, including official statistics on life expectancy, mortality, and mental health. Insights from these statistics may be of interest to the Committee as your inquiry progresses.

To develop our analytical priorities, we work with a range of stakeholders, including Government departments, academics and charities. For instance, for the work around suicide, we work with the National Suicide Prevention Strategy Advisory Group, chaired by Professor Louis Appleby with membership spanning government departments and a wide range of charities. Additionally, we engage with the Department of Health and Social Care to ensure our analyses are timely and policy-relevant, and with the Ministry of Justice and Office for Veterans’ Affairs on suicides among prisoners and armed forces veterans respectively.

What factors drive lower, and falling, male life expectancy and what action would have the biggest impact on addressing this?

Fall in life expectancy

Over the last 40 years life expectancy in the UK has been increasing, albeit at a slower pace in the last decade (see Figure 1). This increase has been primarily because of a reduction in mortality at older ages driven by advances in health care, and improvements in living and working conditions.

Our most recent publications show a slight decrease in the estimated life expectancy of males across the UK. Decreases have been reported at national level and at local levels. This was driven by the coronavirus pandemic which led to a greater number of deaths than normal in 2020.

Generally, the decreases reported in life expectancy at a local level are seen in areas where rates of deaths due to any cause were the highest. The first peak in coronavirus deaths was in April 2020, while the country was in the middle of the first national lockdown. At this time, urban centres in London, Birmingham, the north of England and South Wales had the highest rates of deaths due to any cause.

When producing the national life tables, we average mortality observed over three years to smooth out the impact of exceptional events, such as a flu epidemic, on reported life expectancy. Despite this smoothing, the excess mortality observed in 2020 led to estimates of life expectancy at birth for males for 2018 to 2020 falling to levels reported for 2012 to 2014. Female estimates of life expectancy were virtually unchanged from 2015 to 2017. The difference in trends for males and females reflects the larger increase in male mortality rates in 2020.

The slight decreases in life expectancy reported do not necessarily mean that a male born in 2018 to 2020 will go on to live a shorter life. This is because the reported life expectancies assume that the higher-than-average mortality observed in 2018 to 2020 will continue. It is possible that life expectancy will return to an improving trend in the future.

The latest national life expectancy estimates are provisionally scheduled to be released in November 2023. These estimates will cover the period 2020 to 2022.

Figure 1: Life expectancy at birth for males and females, UK, between 1980 to 1982 and 2018 to 2020

Graph comparing the life expectancy at birth for males and females in the UK, between 1980 to 1982, and 2018 to 2020

Source: Office for National Statistics- – National life tables – life expectancy in the UK: 2018 to 2020 For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

Difference between males and females

As Figure 1 shows, despite improvements in life expectancy over the last 40 years there is a remaining difference between males and females. In the latest period, 2018 to 2020, life expectancy at birth in the UK was 79.0 years for males and 82.9 years for females. However, over the past 40 years the gap has steadily narrowed; from 6.0 years in 1980-82 (Male: 70.8, Female: 76.8) to 3.8 years in 2018-20 (Male: 79.0, Female: 82.9). Differences are also reporting with varying gaps when looking at lower geographical areas within the UK.

The difference in life expectancy between males and females is seen across the world, as highlighted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In the latest update, the UK had one of the narrowest gender gaps in life expectancy across OECD countries.

While a general trend of females having a longer life expectancy than males has persisted, it is important to note that ONS analysis based on ONS Longitudinal Study data has shown that socio-economically advantaged males in 21st Century are living significantly longer than disadvantaged females, something that wasn’t the case in the 1980’s or 1990’s. This is driven by a much greater increase in male life expectancy amongst advantaged men (categorised under the “Higher Managerial” and “Professional” classes) over the previous 40 years, with the Slope Index of Inequality showing the gap in life expectancy at birth for males widening from 5.6 years in 1980 to 6.4 years in 2016.

A sizable contribution to the lower life expectancy observed in men is made by a higher rate of avoidable deaths. This refers to deaths that are preventable or treatable, including neoplasms (cancers), which represent the largest driving cause of avoidable mortality.

In 2019, avoidable deaths were 59.0% higher among males than females, this gap has narrowed since 2001 when it was 75.0%. Deaths involving alcohol-related and drug-related disorders are the only category of causes where the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) has statistically significantly increased since 2001.

Avoidable mortality can also be split up into preventable mortality, which are deaths that can be avoided through health interventions before the onset of diseases or injuries (to reduce incidence) and treatable mortality, which are deaths that can be avoided through healthcare interventions after the onset of disease, to reduce case-fatality. In 2019, preventable deaths were 89.0% higher in males than females, but this too was lower than in 2001 when the gap was 110% higher, while treatable mortality was 19.0% higher in 2019, a fall from 32.0% in 2001.

The ONS conducts specific analysis on drug poisoning deaths in England and Wales. Males accounted for more than two-thirds of registered drug poisonings in 2021 (3,275 male deaths compared with 1,584 female deaths), which is consistent with previous years. The male rate of drug misuse deaths was 77.5 deaths per million in 2021 (2,206 registered deaths) and the female rate was 29.3 deaths per million (854 deaths).

The most recent analysis from the ONS on inequalities in mortality involving common physical health conditions in England found that the age-standardised rate of all-cause mortality (per 100,000 person-years) was 1.3 times higher for males than females during the period 21 March 2021 to 31 January 2023. Males also had higher age-standardised rates of mortality for most individual conditions examined (Figure 2). In absolute terms, the biggest differences were observed for chronic ischaemic heart disease (232.0 for males, 94.5 for females), pneumonia (207.8 for males, 129.0 for females), diabetes (156.1 for males, 91.5 for females), and heart failure (167.9 for males, 103.8 for females).

Figure 2: Age-standardised mortality rates (per 100,000 person-years) and 95% confidence intervals for deaths involving common physical health conditions by sex, England: 21 March 2021 to 31 January 2023

Graph showing age-standardised mortality rates (per 100,000 person-years) and 95% confidence intervals for deaths involving common physical health conditions by sex, England: 21 March 2021 to 31 January 2023

Source: Office for National Statistics – Inequalities in mortality involving common physical health conditions, England: 21 March 2021 to 31 January 2023 For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

What is driving higher rates of suicide amongst men and how could this be addressed?

As seen since the mid-1990s, males accounted for three-quarters of suicide deaths registered in England and Wales in 2021. Suicide appears in the top five common causes for men under the age of 50, where health conditions related to ageing are less prevalent than those in older age groups. When looking at age-specific suicide rates by broad age groups men aged 45 to 64 have had the highest age-specific suicide rates since 2010. Males aged 10 to 24 years have had the lowest rates since 1981. In 2021, the rate in this group was 8.0 deaths per 100,000.

Male rates for all age groups were higher in 2021 than in 2020, except for those aged 75 years and over where the rate remained unchanged. We saw a significant increase in the rate of deaths registered as suicide in 2021. This increase was the result of a lower number of suicides registered in 2020, because of the disruption to coroners’ inquests caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The 2021 suicide rate was similar to the pre-coronavirus pandemic rates in 2018 and 2019. The latest available evidence shows that suicide rates did not increase because of the coronavirus pandemic, which is contrary to some speculation at the time.

Our Sociodemographic inequalities in suicides in England and Wales: 2011 to 2021 publication also highlighted differences between males and females. Further, it showed that for men aged 40 to 50 years, the highest rates of suicide were in disabled people, those who have never worked or are in long-term unemployment or are single (never been married or in a civil partnership). For ethnicity, rates of suicide were highest in the White and Mixed/Multiple ethnic groups for both men and women. People who reported belonging to any religious group had lower rates of suicide, compared with those who reported no religion; however, rates were higher in Buddhists and “Other” religious groups.

We have also looked at the risk of suicide and drug-related deaths among prisoners, based on confidential matching of data from HM Prison and Probation Service and Office for National Statistics mortality records. Male prisoners were at an increased risk of dying by suicide compared with the general male population; the risk of male prisoners dying by suicide was 3.9 times higher than the general male population between 2008 and 2019.

There will be a range of factors to consider when tackling suicide rates. The Committee will be considering access to services that may help those at risk of suicide. The ONS have produced analysis on access to health care, looking at the socio-demographic differences in use of Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services. It showed men with a probable common mental disorder were less likely to access IAPT services than women.

We have also conducted analysis on prevention of future death (PFD) reports for suicide. Coroners have a duty to issue a PFD any person or organisation where, in the opinion of the coroner, action should be taken to prevent future deaths. A total of 164 PFD reports were available. For context, around 5,000 suicides are registered in England and Wales each year. As such, PFD reports are only issued for a small number of cases. The NHS (including health boards, trusts, clinical commissioning groups, primary care services, health and care partnerships and ambulance services) were the most frequent recipient of PFD reports, having received 42.0% of all reports. Of the 164 reports, around 62.0% of the deceased were male, 37.0% were female. The analysis highlights the range of concerns raised by coroners following a suicide, including processes not being followed, and inadequate documentation and monitoring, which may have prevented a death. We hope this analysis will provide valuable insight for those concerned with suicide prevention.

Please let us know if you would like to discuss any of this further.

Yours sincerely,

Emma Rourke

Office for National Statistics written evidence submission to the Welsh Affairs Select Committee inquiry into the impact of population change in Wales

Dear Mr Crabb,

I write in response to the Welsh Affairs Committee’s call for evidence for the inquiry into the impact of population change in Wales.

As the Committee will be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s National Statistical Institute (NSI) and largest producer of official statistics. We aim to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate.

ONS are responsible for collecting and publishing statistics related to the economy, population and society at national, regional and local levels. We also conduct the census in England and Wales every 10 years. As you may know, we are currently consulting on the future of population and migration statistics in England and Wales. Our statistical releases include a range of outputs covering Wales, which we hope will be of assistance to the inquiry.

In line with our role as NSI, we produce many of our detailed statistics to reflect the overall population and economy of Wales and these releases therefore do not always cover detailed exploration of all reasons and decisions contributing to overall trends and patterns.

An overview of population change in Wales

On Census Day, 21 March 2021, the size of the usual resident population in Wales was 3,107,500; this was the largest population ever recorded through a census in Wales. The population of Wales has grown by 44,000 (1.4%) since the last census in 2011, when it was 3,063,456. This compares with intercensal change between 2001 and 2011 of 5.3 per cent (from an estimated 2.9 million in 2001). Census 2021 shows the rate of population growth in Wales was considerably lower than in England, where the population grew by 6.6%. Population growth was also lower in Wales than in all English regions.

Over the 10 years between 2011 and 2021, the mid-year population estimate for England increased by 6.5% to an estimated 56,536,000, the highest rate of the four countries of the UK; the estimated population of Northern Ireland increased by 5.0% to 1,905,000, Scotland by 3.4% to 5,480,000, and Wales by 1.4% to an estimated 3,105,000.

Figure 1: The population continues to increase in Wales: Population 1801 to 2021, Wales

Graph showing the population of Wales between 1801 and 2021

Source: Office for National Statistics – Census 2021 For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

We are continuing to develop our research into the new dynamic population model (DPM), which aims to estimate population and population change in a timely way, to better respond to user needs. We have used the DPM to produce admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) for mid-year 2011 to 2022 for all 331 local authorities in England and Wales.

Population of Wales by age group

Census 2021 data shows that the trend of population ageing has continued, with more people than ever before in the older age groups. Over one-fifth (21.3%) of the Welsh population in 2021 (662,000) were aged 65 years and over, up from 18.4% (562,544) in 2011. The size of the population aged 90 years and over (29,700, 1.0%) has increased since 2011 (when 25,200, 0.8%, were aged 90 years and over). Nearly two-thirds (62.2%) of the Welsh population (1,931,800) were aged 15 to 64 years. The size of this age group has declined slightly since 2011, when 64.7% of the overall population (1,981,784) were aged 15 to 64 years. The remaining 16.5% of the population (513,800) in Wales were aged under 15 years. The size of this age group has also decreased since 2011, when 16.9% (519,128) were aged under 15 years, reflecting a decrease in fertility since 2011.

Our mid-year population estimates releases provide median ages. The median age of the population in the UK was 40.7 years in mid-2021, a year higher than in mid-2011. Wales had the highest median age in mid-2021 at 43.1 years. Median age can also be found in some of our census releases.

Components of changes in Wales’s population, including insights from  Census 2021

Monthly data show that from April 2011 until the end of March 2021 in Wales there were 321,000 live births and 332,000 deaths registered. This represents a natural decrease of approximately 11,000 usual residents. The population growth since 2011 is because of positive net migration (approximately 55,000 usual residents) into Wales. Out of the estimated 3.1 million usual residents in Wales in 2021, 2.9 million (93.1%) were born in the UK and 215,000 (6.9%) were born outside the UK. The number of residents in Wales born outside the UK has increased by 28.3% (48,000) between the 2011 Census and Census 2021. In England, the number of residents born outside the UK has increased by 33.6% (2.5 million).

As part of the Census 2021 releases we have developed an interactive tool to enable users to understand how the population has changed in different local authority areas and how they compare with others across England and Wales. ONS have published insights from Census 2021 on People in England and Wales with a different address in the UK a year before the Census. This shows that the proportion of usual residents living in Wales on Census day 2021 with an address in England one year ago was 1.8%; this compares to 1.7% in 2011. The proportion of usual residents living in England on Census day 2021 with an address in Wales one year ago was 1.4% (the same as in 2011).

The highest net inflows on Census day 2021 (usual residents an address elsewhere in England and Wales one year ago as a proportion of usual residents age one year and over) were in student areas, which was similar to 2011. The local authority in 2021 with the highest net inflow in Wales was Ceredigion (2%). The local authority with the highest net outflow in Wales was Wrexham (0.3%).

Between 2011 and 2021, the proportion of people moving within their region decreased across all regions in England and Wales, with Wales having the largest percentage point difference which decreased from 8.7% to 7.1%. All local authorities in Wales saw a decrease of within local authority moves between 2011 and 2021, with the largest percentage point decrease being in Newport which decreased from 6.4% to 4.4%.

ONS mid-year population estimates and components of population change

ONS mid-year population estimates (MYEs) enable a detailed exploration of the components (sometimes also known as ‘drivers’) of population change (births, internal migration, international migration and deaths). Components of change for non-rebased data (2012 to 2020) show the following general trends regarding internal and international migration. Internal migration (to / from Wales from the rest of the UK) has generally been:

  • very strongly net positive for Higher Education student ages
  • very strongly net negative for graduate ages (some of which is likely to be a consequence of the strong inflow of people to study),
  • net positive for families (internal migration for children and adults over 27/28 are both positive), and;
  • net positive for older adults (through to the oldest ages).

ONS statistics on internal migration do not provide any information about people’s motives for moving (variables available are origin, destination, age and sex).

International migration (into Wales from the rest of the world) has generally been net positive and so contributing to the population aged under 25 with outflows at slightly higher ages related to inflows. Comparison of fertility in Wales to other parts of the UK over time can be made through using ‘Vital statistics in the UK: births, deaths and marriages’.

Detailed data from reconciliation and rebasing of mid-year population estimates

Following Census 2021, ONS have been completing a reconciliation and rebasing process. Reconciliation is the process of comparing the new official MYEs for mid-2021 (derived from using Census 2021 data), with the MYEs for mid-2021 which would have been developed in the absence of a census (mid-2021 estimates rolled forward from mid-2020 estimates). Rebasing follows on from the reconciliation process and aims to spread the differences observed out across the last decade in a plausible fashion (to reflect years of the decade when a component of change was contributing to that difference), apportioned to the most likely component of change.

Release of rebased mid-year population estimates from this process has been postponed to ensure population estimates are consistent with migration statistics this autumn. We will confirm publication dates in due course. Reconciliation and rebasing happens every 10 years following the census and is particularly important following Census 2021 because the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is likely to have increased the uncertainty around the mid-year population estimates (MYEs) more than would ordinarily be the case. It is likely that many people’s movements over the last two years may not reflect longer-term trends. Census 2021 gives us the end-point population level for the decade since 2011. This means we are now able to compare the MYEs throughout the previous decade with the Census 2021 data and use these data to revise the timeseries of previous MYEs (including the components of change in these). The official population estimates for mid-2012 to mid-2020 will be revised, to incorporate the data we now have available from Census 2021.

Economic activity and inactivity in Wales

The latest labour market indicators for Wales including employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, workers’ hours, jobs and Claimant Count, rolling three-monthly figures are published monthly. For a comparison to other areas please see the regional, local authority and parliamentary constituency breakdowns of changes in UK employment, unemployment, economic inactivity and other related statistics (Labour market in the regions of the UK: September 2023). More detailed labour market indicators for local authorities, unitary authorities, counties and regions in Great Britain for a 12-month period, published quarterly (from the Annual Population Survey) can be found in the release LI01 Regional labour market: local indicators for counties, local and unitary authorities. Furthermore, annual population survey data on economic inactivity by reason by region can be found on Nomis.

Population projections for Wales

There are two population projections for Wales – national population projections (NPPs) and subnational population projections (SNPPs). These statistics are widely used in planning; for example, fiscal projections, health education and pensions. NPPs are produced by ONS and provide an indication of the potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. During the period mid-2020 to mid-2030, the population of Wales is projected to grow by 3.2%. SNPPs for Wales are produced by the Welsh Government and provide an indication of the possible size and structure of local authorities in Wales in the future.

Ongoing liaison with users of population statistics in Wales

The ONS Local team has a Devolved Liaison Officer for Wales who is working with Welsh Government and other stakeholders to offer a bespoke service in Wales. This service aims to help stakeholders navigate the ONS data landscape and access the data, analysis and insights they need to make decisions.

I hope this evidence is useful to the Inquiry. Please let us know if there is anything further we can provide.

Yours sincerely,

Emma Rourke

Deputy National Statistician for Health, Population and Methods