The Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP) Sub-group on the Dynamic Population Model (DPM) has been established to provide independent, expert technical assurance on the development of ONS admin-based population estimates (ABPES). Convened by the National Statistician, this sub-group operates under the broader MARP framework, which supports the production of official statistics in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics, particularly its emphasis on quality assurance through peer review.
This sub-group plays a vital role in ensuring that the statistical methods underpinning the DPM are robust, transparent, and continuously improving. Its responsibilities include:
- Offering external, independent assurance and guidance on the methodologies used in the DPM.
- Identifying gaps and risks in current methods and recommending strategies for mitigation.
- Reviewing and contributing to the ongoing development and refinement of statistical techniques.
- Providing oversight of methodological deep dives undertaken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) across its population statistics portfolio.
The MARP sub-group on the DPM will meet as and when required.
June 2025
Overview
The Dynamic Population Model (DPM) Review Panel provides independent, external assurance and guidance on the statistical methodology underpinning the DPM.
Introduction
The DPM Review Panel is a sub-group of the Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP), established to ensure that the methods used in the DPM are robust, transparent, and meet the standards set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics.
Functions
The Panel plays a key role in supporting the methodological integrity of the DPM by fulfilling the following core functions:
- providing independent assurance and expert advice on the statistical methods used in the DPM.
- identifying methodological risks or gaps and suggesting mitigations.
- reviewing and contributing to the development and refinement of DPM methods.
- offering robust technical challenges and guidance to ensure methodological quality.
- communicating the Panel’s role in supporting the integrity of international migration statistics.
Reporting and Governance
The Panel reports to the Deputy Director of Population and Migrations Research and Development (PMRD), who also acts as the convener. Strategic developments and methodological direction advised by the Panel will be shared with MARP, which oversees the broader assurance of statistical methods across ONS.
Chairing
The Panel is convened by the Deputy Director of PMRD. The Strategy, Governance and Methods Development team in PMRD coordinates meeting materials and logistics.
Membership
The Panel consists of up to six members, selected for their breadth of experience and expertise. Members are appointed by the convener and substitutes will not be permitted to attend Panel meetings unless with an express invitation from the chair.
If specific expertise is required for a particular method extension, additional experts may be invited to present or respond to specific agenda items.
Transparency and Confidentiality
The Panel operates under a Confidentiality Undertaking signed by all members. While agendas and papers will not be published, minutes and redacted papers may be published in line with ONS guidance.
Code of Conduct
Panel members are expected to provide their expertise and advice on the topics they are asked to consider. Members are welcome to share papers in advance with colleagues on a need-to-know basis to develop their advice within the constraints outlined in the Confidentiality Undertaking which all panel members are requested to sign. If Panel members wish to share a paper more widely, this can be decided by the chair of the Panel on a case-by-case basis.
On occasion members will be asked to consider topics of a sensitive nature. In these instances, certain restrictions will apply. These will be clearly set out by the Panel secretariat in advance of receiving any papers. Members who feel they are not able to abide with the restrictions will not receive papers and will be asked not to attend the relevant meeting
Secretariat
The secretariat will be provided by the ONS.
Meetings
The Panel meets as required, with frequency and agenda set by the convener.
| Member | Position | Declaration of Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Taylor (Chair) | Deputy Director Population and Migration Research and Development Office for National Statistics (ONS) | |
| Dr. Fred Piel | Imperial College London | No relevant interest |
| Professor Jon Forster | University of Warwick | No relevant interest |
| Professor George Ploubidis | University College London | No relevant interest |
| Professor Arkadiusz Wiśniowski | University of Manchester | No relevant interest |
Regular ONS attendees
- Dominic Webber: Head of Population Estimation and Research
- Duncan Elliottt: Principal Methodologist